The Super Bowl is here, but did you know how it got its name? The first three Super Bowls were not called the Super Bowl, but rather the AFL-NFL World Championship Game. Per The Atlantic, "As the big game approaches we will once again be told that, as Wikipedia puts it, the name "Super Bowl" was "coined by [Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar] Hunt, who took it in part from the then popular toy, the Super Ball. Hunt explained that "my own feeling is that it probably registered in my head because my daughter Sharron and my son Lamar Jr. had a children's toy called a Super Ball and I probably interchanged the phonetics of "bowl" and "ball." Now you have something to share at your Super Bowl party.

Speaking of the Super Bowl parties, it's a major reason I hate the Super Bowl. I'm a football degenerate, but now I'm forced to sit in a room, watching the biggest game, with people who have no idea what is going on. People cheering on meaningless plays and not understanding the basic concept of 1st-and-10. Some people watching the Super Bowl is the only football game they'll watch all season. And if your response is, "Well, why not watch it alone?" Because then I'm anti-social! But at least, Vegas gives you so many wild and crazy prop bets and that makes me happy.

My best advice would be to handicap the game in what you think will happen, and bet accordingly. If you expect a shootout, then go over on pass attempts and completions. If you expect a slugfest, then go under rushing yards, etc. I'm expecting a low-scoring first quarter following by pace picking up.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Super Bowl Picks - Game Props

If you're not sure how odds work (-110, +115), read this. It will explain everything*

Under 9.5 first quarter points (-110)

This is a stone cold lock. The Patriots have played in seven Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era, and have been outscored 15-0 in the first quarter combined. They have not scored a single first-quarter point in seven games. That is insane. When these teams played in 2004, the first quarter was scoreless.

The Patriots were fifth in the league with 5.3 first-quarter points. Their defense was eighth in football allowing 3.8. In the playoffs, they trailed 7-0 to the Titans and led the Jaguars 3-0.

The Eagles scored 6.3 first-quarter points, third in the league, but that was with Carson Wentz. That number dipped 2.3 through their last three. Their defense was fifth in the league allowing 3.3 They didn't score against the Falcons in the first and against the Vikings, scored seven thanks to a pick-six.

There is no way this goes over. Both these teams will be feeling each other out during the first. And this leads to my next prop.

Second quarter only: Patriots -1 and over 14

The Patriots were first this season with 11.5 second-quarter points. Their last three they've averaged 14. The defense allowed 6.2 through the season, but 4.7 their last three.

The Eagles were eighth with eight points, and 8.7 their last three. Their defense allowed 4.9, fourth in league, and 2.3 their last three.

In the Patriots seven Super Bowl since 2001, the average points scored in the second has been 17. They've never been shut out in the second quarter averaging 9.85 points.

Both teams will settle down after a low-scoring first.

Score in first 5.5 minutes of game? No (-140)

None of the seven Patriots Super Bowls has any team scored in the first 5.5 minutes of the game.

Will there be at least one scoreless quarter? Yes (+280)

Nearly 3-1 odds on this?!? Four of the seven Pats Super Bowls has had a scoreless first quarter.

At least one touchdown in each quarter? No (+140)

I'll continue following my handicap of an extremely-low scoring first quarter.

Patriots touchdown in first quarter? No (-110)

I think you understand my reasoning at this point.

Will last play of game be a quarterback rush? Yes (-150)

Both the Patriots playoff games have ended with a kneel. Same for the Eagles. None of the Eagles last five regular season games ended with a kneel. The Eagles began the season ending the game on a kneel, then their next two of three games did, followed by seven games with, and then none for the last five regular season games. The Pats season was split evenly, 8-8.

I just get the feeling this game will end on a kneel.

Shortest touchdown of game: under 1.5 yards (-140)

This has hit in seven of the last 10 NFL games.

 

Super Bowl Picks - Player Props

Will LeGarrette Blount score a touchdown? (+115)

He's scored a touchdown the past two playoff games, but only scored three on the year. I'll still take it because he's the Eagles goal-line back.

Jay Ajayi over 57.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Patriots are going to struggle to slow down Ajayi. Their middle linebackers are not good. Ajayi rushed for 54 against Atlanta and 73 against the Vikings.

Jay Ajayi over 1.5 receptions (-210)

Is this a joke? The Eagles will surely want to ease Nick Foles into the game and what's better than dumping off a couple balls to your back to build some confidence.

Corey Clement over 10 rushing yards (-115) 

Clement is the mix-it up back and the Eagles will use him to keep the Patriots defense on their heels. He went over this mark nine teams in the season and in the NFC Championship.

Player to score first? Burkhead (12-1), Blount (15-1), Clement (30-1), 

I think the Eagles will score the first touchdown. They did so 10 times this season. Alshon Jefferey had the most with 4, Blount was second with three. The Patriots will not let Jefferey score on them, but I believe Blount will get the one-yard plunge or Clement will take a 15-yard pitch to the house. As for Burkhead, he was the Patriots goal line back, and primary back, scoring a touchdown in four consecutive games until getting injured in Pittsburgh. He played three snaps in the AFC Championship, but he will be ready to go in this one. If James White isn't the goal line back, then Burkehad provides incredible value.

Rex Burkhead over 14,5 total rushing yards (even)

Like I just said, he was the Patrtiots primary back until getting injured. In 10 regular season games, he went over this mark seven times.

Dion Lewis over 4.5 receptions (-175)

Do you know that James White had a game-high 14 receptions for 110 yards in last year's Super Bowl or Shane Vereen had a game-high 11 receptions for 64 yards against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl? The Patriots love to use their backs in the passing game, but the question is which one will Belichick feature? I have no idea, but Lewis is the more agile talented player so I'll take my chances with him.

James White over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)

I'll hedge my previous bet with White going over 27.5 receiving yards. Either him or Lewis will catch several balls and go over the allotted yardage.

First turnover of game: LeGarrette Blount (15-1)

He fumbled last year and you can bet the New England defense will be going after that punch-out every time he touches the ball.

Blount on the carry.
Blount with the FUMBLE.

This @AtlantaFalcons D came to play! #SB51 https://t.co/EbZRVrlf2E

— NFL (@NFL) February 6, 2017

 

Most Valuable Player Tom Brady (8-5), Chris Hogan (55-1), Fletcher Cox (75-1), Malcolm Jenkins (100-1)

If New England wins, Brady will most probably get the MVP. He'll be the reason they win. It's as simple as that. However, if a New England receiver has a 10-catch 100-yard receiving game with two touchdowns, then he may get it. I'll take a flier on Hogan.

If the Eagles win, it will be because of their defense. Both Cox and Jenkins as their defensive leaders and provide incredible value.

 

Super Bowl Picks - Miscellaneous Props

P!NK over two minutes National Anthem (-150)

P!nk will definitely go over. She will hold the notes on some words and start the game off with a winning bet.

Jon Rahm fourth round score -6.5 vs. Zach Ertz reception yards

Rahm will shoot 68-72 in the fourth round. Last year he shot a final-round 70 and in 2015, a 68. I'm a little nervous because he shot a final-round 77 last Sunday, but he should be fine at the Phoenix Open. That means Ertz would have to get to between 62-66 receiving yards at least. He's only went above 62 six times in their 18 games. The Patriots have allowed an average of 45 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.

 

Super Bowl Game Prediction

Patriots -4.5, under 48.5

When the Eagles and Patriots take the field, they all know every single thing about the other team. Every formation, tendency, play, you name it. The game will come down to execution.

Mike Lomabrdi of the Ringer said on his podcast last week, the Eagles are a "horrendous matchup" for the Patriots. He added, “They really don’t have an identity offensively. They are very unpredictable and they play left-handed. [Bill] Belichick is so good at making a team play left-handed, but it is kind of hard to make a left-handed team play left-handed.”

The line opened at Patriots by six and I liked the Eagles, but it's at 4.5 thanks to a multi-million dollar bet on the Eagles to win. Now I'm leaning towards the Patriots because it feels like the public is moving towards the Eagles. If Wentz was playing in this game, the line would have been pick 'em.

Like I've said above, I expect both teams to get off to sluggish starts. The Patriots will struggle to slow down the Eagles rushing attack. The run-pass-option will also cause the Pats defense issues. The Eagles defense boasts the number one ranked rushing defense, meaning the Pats will struggle to move the ball on the ground, but who are we kidding? This is the New England Patriots. Rob Gronowski will play, that I have no doubt about.

After the first quarter, I'd be feeling stupid taking the Eagles. It's too difficult to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Tom Brady should slice up the Eagles secondary en route to furthering his stance as the greatest quarterback to ever play football winning his sixth Super Bowl.

One more thing to note, all seven Brady/Belichick Super Bowls have been decided by one-possession; 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6.

Prediction: Patriots 27 - Eagles 21

 

Thanks for reading my column all year. I'll be back writing my NFL Survivor Picks column in the fall, and until then stay tuned for my weekly column on the PGA Tour.

Best of luck and enjoy the game!

 

Odds provided by sportsbook.ag and William Hill.