X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 5: Buy or Sell?

We’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Last year we built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days.  The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here. With our sample size being so small this early in the season though, we will look at the difference between pitchers' final 2016 K-Rate and their current K-Rate through two to three starts.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.  By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

K-Rate Risers

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

2016 K-Rate: 23.7%, 2017 K-Rate: 31.6%

You could tell back in 2014 when Jacob deGrom made his debut for the Mets that he was going to be something special. He owns a career 2.81 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, with a 2.90/3.12 FIP/xFIP to back those numbers up. His career K% is 26.1%, but last season it got down to 23.7% likely due to some lingering injuries he sustained. This season he is healthy, and has ratcheted things up a bit with a K% of 31.6% through six starts.

This season deGrom sports a 3.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, which can be attributed to a bit of bad luck. His BABIP is inflated at .349, and his HR/FB is nearly 4% higher than his career average at 13.3%. His FIP/xFIP of 3.10/3.04 also point to better things ahead. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is at a career high 15.6% this season, and for the first time in his career every single one of his pitches has a double-digit SwStr%. His fastball velocity is back up to 95 MPH on average this season, which helps set up his devastating off-speed stuff. He does carry an uncharacteristic 10.3% BB%, which is the only chink in his armor. Still, his strikeouts are up and he’s allowing less contact than last season, so I like his odds to continue dominating and striking out hitters at a high clip.

Only once before this season did deGrom allow five free passes in a game. It was the third game of his career back in 2014. This season he has done it twice, though it seems more like him shaking off the rust than any lingering effects. I would buy deGrom while his ERA is slightly inflated.

Verdict: Buy

 

Trevor Cahill, San Diego Padres

2016 K-Rate:23.2%, 2017 K-Rate: 29.8%

Trevor Cahill was last a full-time starter in 2013 with the Diamondbacks, when he held a 3.99 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 25 starts. In 2014, he was moved between the rotation and bullpen, before sticking as a reliever for two seasons. He was signed by San Diego to start, in what was expected to be a poor rotation. Surprisingly the rotation as a whole hasn’t been bad, and Cahill has impressed. Through five starts he holds a 3.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, supported by a FIP/xFIP of 2.64/2.82. Not to mention his career-high 29.8% K%.

Looking into the numbers, it doesn’t seem like Cahill is doing much different than in the past. His pitch velocity is the same, he has the same repertoire, and he is still generating a lot of ground balls. One thing he has changed is his curveball usage. For his career he has thrown the hook about 11% of the time, but in 2017 that is up to 27%. The pitch has held hitters to a 0.57 batting average against, with a 23.4% SwStr%. It has kept hitters extremely off-balance, which shows in his numbers. Cahill has an outside swing rate (O-Swing%) of 37.5%, and a zone swing rate (Z-Swing%) of 49.5%. Both are trending in the right direction from his career averages of 27.1% and 57.5% respectively. Basically, hitters are swinging at pitches outside of the zone more often and pitches inside the zone less often, which has helped drive his strikeout numbers up.

Cahill’s curveball is a fantastic pitch; however he is still allowing a 40% hard hit rate which will likely catch up with him. He certainly won’t punch out 11.10 hitters per nine all season, but nothing in his profile suggests he is simply getting lucky with these early results. Don’t expect greatness with Cahill, however, a season like he had in 2012 isn’t out of the question. That season he threw 200 innings with a 3.78 ERA, which is certainly useful in fantasy.

Verdict: Buy

 

K-Rate Fallers

Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies

2016 K-Rate: 27.6%, 2017 K-Rate: 22.6%

Vince Velasquez certainly has ace-level stuff; we’ve seen it in flashes. In his second start of 2016, after being acquired by the Astros, he threw a complete-game shutout with 16 strikeouts against the Padres. In the first month of the season he held a 1.78 ERA with 33 K’s in 25.1 innings. Then in May, he held a 2.12 ERA with 34 K’s in 31.2 innings. Inconsistency has been Velasquez’s Achilles heel. He ended the year with a 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a K% of 27.6%.

Through five starts this season he holds a 5.47 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a K% of 22.6%. Hitters aren’t hitting as well for average off him this season, but he is striking out less hitters and his BB% has risen from 8.2% last season to 13%. He began the season with 17 strikeouts in his first two starts, but has only nine over his last three starts. He is throwing his changeup more, which wasn’t successful last season and hasn’t done him many favors this season. Hitters have hit .333 off the pitch this season, and his .373 off it last season. His pitch velocities and SwStr% all look similar to last season, however his O-Swing % and Z-Swing% are trending in the wrong direction. Hitters are more patient on the plate, and waiting for him to throw in the zone before they swing which has led to the increased walks.

The book is out on Velasquez and hitters have adjusted, now it is time for him to adjust. When he is on he can strike out any hitters, unfortunately when he’s off he can be extremely hittable. It would be tough to sell him now, but if I could get a solid piece from another team I would rather they deal with these continual bumps in the road.

Verdict: Sell

 

Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays

2016 K-Rate: 27.4%, 2017 K-Rate: 22.4%

Chris Archer has been a workhorse for the Rays over the past three seasons. He has not started less than 32 games per season over that span, with a 3.52 ERA and a 9.74 K/9. In the past two seasons he has finished in the top-6 in the league in strikeouts, with a K/9 just over 10.00 each season. This season things have been different. While he does have a tidy 3.43 ERA over his first six starts, his strikeout rate has dipped. His career K% is 24.8%, though the past two seasons it has been 29% and 27.4%. This season it is back down to 22.4%.

While his pitch velocities all remain similar this season, his pitch selection has not. Archer has primarily thrown his fastball over his slider and changeup, but this season he has thrown more sliders than fastballs (302 to 300, according to Fangraphs). The O-Swing% on the slider is at 38.6%, its lowest rate since 2012. Archer’s O-Swing% is down across the board, though all of his other swing and contact stats are in line with his career averages. His SwStr% of 11.8% isn’t as high as it was the past two seasons, but it is higher than any other year of his career.

With everything else looking normal, it seems as if this small patch of decreased strikeouts is nothing more than just that. Archer has been a K-machine for two seasons, so expect him to make a bounce-back in that area over his next several starts. If you know an owner who is worried about his strikeout production, it would be wise to snatch him up.

Verdict: Buy

 

More Risers and Fallers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF