Stop That Hype Train! Jamaal Williams

The hype train for Green Bay’s Jamaal Williams could be derailed during the early portion of the 2018 NFL season. There has been a lot of chatter surrounding Williams this offseason in fantasy football circles. The former fourth-round running back is the prime candidate to be the top tailback for Aaron Rodgers’ high-powered offense heading into the 2018 season. Aaron Jones, who was going to battle Williams for early-down carries, has been suspended for the first two games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Last season’s No. 1 RB, converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery, is shifting into being the situational back on passing downs. This all sounds like it adds up to Williams being a mid-round sleeper who could become a fantasy keeper.

Now there are plenty of reasons for fantasy pundits and players to be more excited about Williams than Avengers nerds are about Comic-Con. After being as much of a fantasy nonfactor as your average punter during the first half of the 2017 campaign (11 rushes for 34 yards in first eight games, Williams showed flashes of brilliance during the latter half of the year when he was given the bulk of the touches. Williams rushed for 545 yards and four touchdowns while adding 21 receptions for 224 yards and another two scores over his final eight outings. He is a better receiver than Jones and a better runner than Montgomery, which should give him the early edge in the race to be the main man in the Packers rushing attack.

But before you pencil Williams in as your surprise sixth-round pick in your September draft and bank on him rushing for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns while throwing in 30 receptions for another 300 yards in between, you have to take these fantasy factors into consideration:

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Three Sticking Points

Aaron Jones

Jones will be behind the fantasy eight-ball because he will miss the opening two contests, but that does not mean Williams is going to simply dash off with the starting job like Usain Bolt dashes off with the baton in a relay race. Jones ran much better than Williams did last season (5.5 YPC compared to Williams’ 3.6) and showed more explosiveness. Green Bay head honcho Mike McCarthy is not going to ship him to Siberia for his off-field indiscretion. Jones is returning Week 3, not Week 8. Unless Williams barrels for back-to-back 150-yard games to kick off the season, Jones will be handed the ball a decent amount as the season wears on.

Ty Montgomery

Williams is a much better receiver out of the backfield than Jones, but he is not a better receiver than a former wide receiver like Montgomery. Montgomery was lackluster last season as a full-time every-down running back and showed he is not durable enough to handle a heavy workload. Using him as a third-down back who can create matchup nightmares for defenses is the perfect plan for the Packers. Montgomery will get the majority of the passes when Rodgers dumps off to backs, and that is going to hurt Williams’ receiving numbers.

Williams himself

While Williams played okay while being Green Bay’s featured back down the stretch of last season, he was not exactly the second coming of Gale Sayers. He only averaged an aforementioned 3.6 yards per carry, a low number that would keep veteran backs from finding a job these days in the NFL. Williams also had no runs of over 25 yards, so there are still questions about his ability to break tackles and break big plays. He might line up as Green Bay’s top tailback at the start of the season, but that has more to do with Jones’ suspension and Montgomery’s brittle body than Williams’ talent.

So while fantasy football owners and experts hype up Williams this offseason as much as Dana White hypes a UFC pay-per-view, tune out the constant compliments about Williams’ versatility and the common theme that he will be the one getting the most touches in one of the NFL’s top offenses. Williams is no sure thing and has just as much chance of being a fantasy flop as he does being a fantasy force.

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