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With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed." It's a bit complicated but let's just say it uses the whole kitchen sink full of Statcast goodies to determine how efficiently a player is performing and should be reaching base.
You'll find the usual studs near the top, so I'll focus on players that you might not expect to see. As always, don't miss out on the pitching version of this series with a look at xSLG risers/fallers.
All Statcast metrics are current as of May 10, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.
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xwOBA Studs
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
.450 xwOBA in 80 PA
It's so hard to trust Donaldson based on his age and injury history but Holy Toledo look at those early Statcast numbers:
He Who Brings Forth Precipitation has only gone deep three times but he is hitting the ball harder than ever while practically chopping his strikeout rate in half. Donaldson is usually among the leaders in the power categories but early on in 2021 he is posting career-bests in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA.
It only took one game before Donaldson hit the injured list, so many fantasy managers were immediately scared off of him. Fading Donaldson has proven to be a mistake so far. There's always the chance of another IL stint, so acquiring him right now is too risky and trying to "sell high" might not provide enough in return. If you have Donaldson, ride his hot bat while you can and hope he doesn't fall victim to the injury bug that seems to be going around in Minnesota.
Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
.447 xwOBA in 97 PA
Just below players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto, we have good ol' Carson Kelly ranking seventh in xwOBA among all qualified hitters. He is slashing .324/.474/.606 and continues to be the best hitter in Arizona. Statcast says he's earned every bit of it, as there is only a .006 difference between his wOBA and xwOBA while his xSLG is .051 higher than his SLG. This massive leap in production has come with improved plate discipline and a 19.8 walk rate. This is a complete 180 from last season, when his walk rate fell to 4.7% and his xwOBA was among the worst in baseball at .267.
With nearly 100 plate appearances under his belt, we can no longer scream "small sample!" Kelly tops the 100-PA Rolling xwOBA leaderboard with an increase of .184 tracing back to last season. His presence among the best hitters in the league is off-putting but we may be seeing a legitimate breakout. He is alternating between the top of the lineup and the fifth spot on any given night. It would be nice to see him settle in at the No. 2 position given his OBP. Kelly should be universally rostered and started in all leagues by now.
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
.420 xwOBA in 104 PA
Gabe Kapler's offseason training regimen must have been something out of the movie "Cocoon." Longoria is one of several veterans in San Fran experiencing a career revival despite being well past their prime. Buster Posey also fits in this column with his .445 xwOBA that ranks right behind fellow backstop Carson Kelly. For his part, Longoria is posting career-highs in barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and of course xwOBA. The EV stands out most, especially his 100 MPH exit velo on FB/LD that ranks fourth out of all hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events.
Longo has been scorching since the season started and is riding a five-game hitting streak but it should be noted that he hasn't gone deep since April 13, a span of 49 at-bats. In that time, he's hitting a mere .250 with no homers, six RBI, 10 runs, and, shockingly, no steals. His rolling xwOBA shows a steady dip toward league average.
Don't let season-long stats mislead you - he is hitting well this year but his blazing hot April is masking a mediocre May thus far.
xwOBA Duds
Elvis Andrus, Oakland A's
.238 xwOBA in 123 PA
It seems there was indeed a reason the Rangers decided to move on from the 13-year vet. He saw a sharp decline at the plate in a short 2020, slashing .194/.252/.330 with a .255 wOBA. He's proving the doubters right, slashing an even worse .158/.203/.211 with a miserable .175 wOBA.
If Andrus was going to deliver anywhere, it would be with speed. He does have three steals on the season but for someone who's played nearly every day on the team with the sixth-highest rate of SB attempts per game, it should be far more. His defense isn't a strong spot to point toward either, as he ranks in the seventh percentile in Outs Above Average. It can't be long before the A's look elsewhere to hold down the shortstop position.
Evan White, Seattle Mariners
.254 xwOBA in 96 PA
White is one of a trio of M's who reside in the bottom-25 along with Taylor Trammell and Tom Murphy. There was some thought that he might break through in his second big-league season based on a strong hard-hit rate (52.5%) and another year of seasoning to improve his plate discipline. That's not happening. Instead, White is again posting a miserable expected slash line of .193/.244/.297 and is near the bottom of the leaderboard in every major category other than max exit velocity.
White has the pedigree and the opportunity to make for a promising fantasy player but he seems lost at the plate more often than not. While his zone contact has improved five points from last year, it's still six points below league average. The same goes for his 31% Whiff% - better but not nearly enough and Mariners' fans are already getting fed up.
Evan White try not to strikeout challenge pic.twitter.com/XH7Qae5yq8
— Al (@ThatMannAl) April 17, 2021
It's amazing that Seattle has a winning record despite five lineup regulars batting below .200 these days. White's job is safe but his role on fantasy rosters is simply a bench stash in AL-only or dynasty leagues until he turns things around.
Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds
.263 xwOBA in 90 PA
Another former first-round pick, India's fast start to the season is to blame for the Eugenio Suarez at shortstop experiment. India forced his way into the lineup and earned the second-base job, starting 23 of the team's 31 games so far. Much like Longoria, however, he faded quickly. After collecting 10 hits in his first six games, India has gone hitless in his past five games, dropping his average to .211 and his xwOBA to .261.
What's worse is that his actual wOBA is nine points higher, so we can't hold our breaths for positive regression. He's played worse on the road in particular and is showing a reverse split against lefties. These are the dips we can expect from young players at times, so to some extent we shouldn't hold it against him too much. On the other hand, India has just one homer and no steals, so without a high average we are getting no value from him. Never known as a power-hitting prospect, the best-case scenario is something akin to Jake Cronenworth. India shouldn't be rostered as of now.
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