X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Risers/Fallers - xBA-BA (Week 15)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 15 of the 2018 MLB season, sorted by xBA-BA. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

Expected stats, such as xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and others we have examined in this series have to be taken for what they are - a projection based on past data, but not the sole basis of fantasy analysis. If expected stats always jived with actual stats, we wouldn't have so many discrepancies. As of today, there are exactly four players with at least 50 plate appearances this season whose expected batting average matches their actual average. Most of the other 424 players on that list will never see those numbers line up precisely, but there is definitely a good chance that they will experience regression, either positive or negative. For that reason, we'll try to identify some BA risers and fallers for the second half of the season.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we've done for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

Each week, we'll take a look at some key Statcast offensive metrics in order to assess risers and fallers. This time, we'll look at xBA and compare it with each players' actual average. xBA is defined according to launch angle and exit velocity, so the idea is to eliminate defense from the equation. Perhaps these players can see their luck turn around for the remainder of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of July 9, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA

Many of the overachievers in terms of xBA are speedy players who regularly post low exit velocity and launch angle numbers, but manage to leg out infield hits or make their living on ground ball base hits. We'll focus on bigger names and batters who should be relying on line drives instead.

Willson Contreras (C, CHC) .047 xBA-BA

This is an interesting case, as Contreras has disappointed with his power but kept his value afloat through a high batting average. At the 50 PA threshold, only six catchers are hitting better than his .287 mark. Then again, Pirates backup catcher Elias Diaz has as many homers (seven) and nearly as many runs scored as Contreras in half as many at-bats. Contreras is in a great lineup and is guaranteed regular playing time, so even if the average dips, he is a must-start at the weakest offensive position. It's baffling how an inflated fly ball rate of 35.3% has led to a 9.3% HR/FB that is less than half of last season, but a dip in hard hit rate might explain it. It would make sense if his average drops, but his power increases in the second half, which is a tradeoff owners will probably take.

Scooter Gennett (2B/3B/OF, CIN) .045 xBA-BA

Apparently last year was not an outlier. While Scooter's owners all hope and pray that a PED-related suspension isn't about to drop any day, we've got to buy into the power as legit. His .329 average is a career high and based on a .378 BABIP that seems a bit high. Statcast tells us it is as well. His expected BA of .284 is right there with his .289 career average, but does nothing to affect his value. If Gennett just stays close to his current pace to match last year's numbers, he will have been a draft day bargain a firm top-10 second baseman.

John Hicks (C/1B, DET) .041 xBA-BA

Hicks has been a steady presence for the Tigers and a nice fill-in option at catcher on fantasy teams, even though he's almost exclusively used at first base these days. Hicks appears to be in line for some negative regression in terms of average, but this would be less disappoint than someone like Contreras, who came into the season with sky-high expectations. Hicks can easily be dropped back to the waiver wire if he slumps massively; if the downturn is slight, he stills serves well at catcher as long as he provides some power. He's recently moved into the cleanup spot, so RBI opportunities should offset a dip in BA.

Jed Lowrie (2B/3B, OAK) .045 xBA-BA

Lowrie seems to be heating up again, with homers in back-to-back games and five HR, 12 RBI in the past two weeks. He didn't do enough to earn an All-Star nod, but many fantasy owners have considered him a waiver wire MVP. He was never going to keep up his absurd April numbers, but it's reassuring to see his average climb back up after he hit just .255 in May. I believe his average is sustainable because much of his unexpected production came and went in the first half already. If there's one thing to worry about with Lowrie, it's a possible trade to the National League or somewhere that he won't necessarily be guaranteed everyday playing time.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) .032 xBA-BA

I'm not trying to pick on Nimmo, really. Just listing facts folks. I called him overvalued a week ago, based on popular perception that he was going to keep hitting the ball out of the park. He still hasn't homered since June 18 and has just one RBI in his last 14 games. A .260 average is not the strongest part of his game but even that could go down as well, if you believe in the xBA-BA formula as a truism. His .340 BABIP might say it all, but he actually posted higher numbers the past two stays in New York (.360, .365) so let's just assume Nimmo owners will have that mediocre average to hang their hats on.

 

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

On the flip side, many underachievers for expected batting average are of the big bopper variety. This means they are often speed-challenged and more likely to be thrown out on hard grounders. The presence of the shift also plays a role, but we won't dig into that data today. Just know that many of these players may not necessarily see a big uptick in batting average since xBA takes exit velocity into account

Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS) -.119 xBA-BA

Murphy doesn't own the worst number difference among all players I charted, but only Luis Guillorme prevented that and he's not a factor in fantasy baseball this year. Murphy has scuffled mightily since finally returning from an extended DL stint to start the season, but it looks as if some bad luck might be at play. According to Statcast, Murphy should be hitting .307. That's the Murphy we know - he hit .322 last year, .347 the year before, and is a career .298 hitter. Obviously the fact he missed spring training and half the season has something to do with his miserable numbers, but it's good to know that his Statcast peripherals are looking good already. Consider him a strong buy-low candidate.

Logan Morrison (1B, MIN) -.060 xBA-BA

Of course last year wasn't going to repeat itself. The Rays knew it and we saw it in the second half as LoMo struggled to prove his early 2017 numbers were remotely sustainable. Even a slugger should be able to maintain an average higher than .191, but even his best-case scenario of matching his xBA puts him at .251 with 10 homers and 30 RBI over 77 games. That's a replacement level player on a non-contending team that could sell off all its major parts before July is over. Hard pass.

Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) -.049 xBA-BA

Duvall isn't the slowest runner out there, so there's some hope to be had that bad luck is at play. In fact, Duvall's average 28.0 Sprint Speed is tied with NL steals leader Ender Inciarte for 134th, if you can believe it. That says more about Inciarte's skill at stealing bases than anything else. Duvall won't ever be a superior player in terms of batting average, but he is better than his .203 mark indicates. He's improved his walk rate and his 37.3% Hard% is six points higher than last season. The power is still there and he is on pace for 100 RBI by season's end, so you could still find a use for him at the end of your OF rotation if more balls fall into play. Outside of Murphy, he presents the best buy-low opportunity on this list, although he's available off waivers in two-thirds of fantasy leagues presently.

Albert Pujols (1B, LAA) -.048 xBA-BA

If you read the note above, you'll know this is all about speed, or lack thereof. Pujols has been among the league leaders in GIDP totals for years now and will always have a high number of balls that he absolutely smashes that turn into outs. Pujols should be hitting .291 according to his xBA, yet he hasn't reached that mark over a full season once since joining the Angels in 2012. Most of his plate discipline numbers are perfectly consistent with the last few years, but he is hitting more line drives at a harder clip this season. Still, his .243 average is nearly identical to last year and will probably stay right there, along with similar power numbers. In case you're wondering, Pujols ranks dead last among 476 Major League batters with a Sprint Speed of 22.4.

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) -.047 xBA-BA

At least there's hope. Sanchez is still on the shelf and he's a no-brain starter regardless of batting average, but it's good to know there could be some positive regression heading his way. .237 is nothing special, but as a catcher with 30 bomb potential, you'll still take it.

 

More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF