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Week-in and week-out we are faced with the struggles of who to start and who to sit in our season-long and daily fantasy lineups. Too often are we indecisive despite knowing in our heart of hearts who the right choice actually is. While so often fantasy sports as a whole remain unpredictable, it does not have to be so difficult if we have the opportunity to look beyond the numbers and truly understand someone's struggle or even their success.
This Boom/Bust piece is meant to help you with your decision-making process and guide you along as we roll deeper into the season with injuries and under-performances taking a hold on our perception.
If you have any questions as to other specific situations or just want to victory lap me for being wrong about something, follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon for any and all things fantasy.
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Week 11 Booms
Marquise Brown vs Tennessee Titans
Marquise Brown is desperate for a tune-up game...
Over the past three weeks, two of the Ravens matchups have come versus top-five pass defenses in the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers. Brown completely flopped in those games and understandably so given how difficult the defense made in on the offense as a whole. While his most recent game versus the New England Patriots was not difficult on paper, we should note the heavy rain in that Sunday Night Football matchup made it not only difficult to catch the ball, but even snap it with Matt Skura botching three plays from the jump. Brown saw seven targets last week (third-most this season) and only caught two passes for 14 yards. The leading receiver on the game was slot-receiver Willie Snead whose 64 yards were mostly on short passes late in the game with plenty of cushion.
This week's matchup against the Tennessee Titans is as favorable as it gets. While the Ravens are typically not forced to pass, they will be down two starting defensive linemen in Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell, making it easier for the Titans' run-heavy offense to operate. Brown has not played fewer than 85% of the offensive snaps over the past five weeks and will receive plenty of looks against a defense that ranks 25th versus the pass. The Titans did just get speedy CB Adoree Jackson back last week after an extended stay on injured reserve due to a knee injury and it should be expected that he gets the call on Brown more often than not. This will be exposable for a fully healthy Brown looking to reclaim some lost stats over the past month.
Edit: Adoree Jackson has been ruled out for Week 11, even more of a reason to fire up Brown.
Jonathan Taylor vs Green Bay Packers
Jonathan Taylor's snaps have slipped over the past three weeks from 34%>31%>24% and by no means will this trend continue downwards unless Taylor gets injured or slips up in a noticeable manner once more. What was once a promising season in the first-half has spiraled into a meager tertiary role in a backfield that could be lead by any one back each week. Frank Reich has stated his favoritism each week will be based off of a hot-hand approach that is to be determined in game but could also be based off a great practice week. While this may seem irrational to fantasy owners and rational individuals alike, this is the way things are for the moment. Taylor's usage two games ago was explicably limited after an early fumble and then on a quick turn-around game that Thursday, he was hardly utilized, giving way to a workhorse Nyheim Hines (birthday) game.
Nevertheless, it should not deter you from flexing Jonathan Taylor at worst in your lineups. In this match against a bottom-10 defense against the run, Taylor could thrive, especially if the Colts come out to an early lead. The Packers are potentially going to be without their superstar wide receiver Davante Adams due to an ankle sprain which will absolutely limit their offense even if Allen Lazard returns this week. Lazard is rumored to have a snap-limit if active. While Aaron Jones has proven capable of carrying a load of the offense in games Adams misses, the Colts Defense will give him as much trouble as they can with not WR1 to defend.
The Colts are unlikely to be caught too far behind or ahead in this game at least early on given the talent level on both sides. Taylor will have his opportunity to thrive and hopefully more-so in the pass-game where he is averaging 8.8 yards-per-target and has caught 22-of-23 targets thrown his way.
Amari Cooper @ Minnesota Vikings
The Dallas Cowboys are a mess but at least they are getting back QB Andy Dalton this week in a return from the COVID list. The widely acknowledged "best back-up QB in the league" will have his shot against a mediocre Minnesota Vikings Defense that is exposable, particularly on the boundaries where their young CBs have struggled to contain receivers. Minnesota's CBs will have their hands full defending the potent trio of Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, especially given that their front-4 on the DL has struggled to create much pressure this season sans Danielle Hunter and most of their starting line from last year.
Amari Cooper has sustained a stable target share over the past three weeks without Dalton , seeing six per game but in the one game Dalton started in full (Week 6 vs Arizona) Cooper was targeted in 10 of Dalton's 54 attempts. Cooper's remained a start-able option in fantasy with just two "bust" games on the season. While Andy Dalton did admit that he is "still feeling the effects of COVID", he has been deemed healthy enough to start and even if he is not, QB Garrett Gilbert held his own well last week against a top-tier Steelers Defense and supported Cooper with six targets which he caught five of for 57 yards (plus 8 yards on a rush attempt. This game might not be a shoot-out but the Vikings can keep up offensively with opponents, especially when star RB Dalvin Cook gets going and with the breakout of rookie Justin Jefferson, there should be enough back-and-forth between these teams.
Bonus: Giovani Bernard @ Washington Football Team
Birthday Game narrative plus no Joe Mixon this week. Fire up Gio everywhere.
Week 11 Busts
James Robinson vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the second-best defense versus the rush and best versus the pass according to DVOA. Outside of a 30-touch game for Robinson, it is tough to imagine much success, if any this week. The Jaguars are still starting Jake Luton who showed his true colors last week versus a cushy opponent in the Green Bay Packers. Luton completed just 51% of his passes while averaging a measly 4.11 adjusted yards-per-attempt. Luton's immobility and general presence makes it easy for defenses to key-in at the line-of-scrimmage and not respect the pass, making it more difficult than usual for any running back, even a talented one like James Robinson to succeed.
Robinson by all means is good but his success over the past two weeks with Luton at the helm has largely been driven by opponents who rank 32nd and 22nd versus the rush. This is Robinson's first matchup against even an above-average defense with Luton at QB and it should be fully expected that he struggles. While the Jacksonville Jaguars' OL ranks 6th in adjusted line yards, they are 30th in adjusted sack rate and will be harassed all game by the Steelers' DL that is returning a fully healthy Tyson Alualu in a revenge game. On top of this, the Jaguars are more than likely to reach an impossible deficit against a Steelers' offense that is figuring out their strengths. It would not be shocking to see Dare Ogunbowale outscore Robinson this week in PPR.
Tyler Boyd @ Washington Football Team
Tyler Boyd is having another very solid season and is set to crack 1000 receiving yards for the third season in a row. However, this weekend's matchup versus Washington slot cornerback is daunting. Kendall Fuller has been dominant in 2020. No slot receiver this season has eclipsed 70 yards versus the Washington Football Team and a large part of it is due to Fuller's impressive ability to shut-down the middle of the field. Boyd is a target hog and could see a decent floor game if targeted around eight times as he is on average. Even so, the yardage will not be there to support much fantasy value.
His ceiling is much lower this week. Boyd is a touchdown-dependent option. While he has scored in three of his nine games played, Boyd is not enough of a red-zone threat with just two targets inside of the 5-yard line all season and five inside of the 10-yard line.
J.D. McKissic vs Cincinnati Bengals
McKissic is arguably the biggest fugazi in fantasy football at the moment given that his production is largely driven by gargantuan volume. Despite possessing arguably the least amount of talent in the Washington skill-corps, McKissic has drawn a team high 29!! receptions over the past two games. While this sort of target share for any player is must-start, the Washington Football Team, and in particular, Alex Smith may not be so privy to feed McKissic this week if they can come out to an early lead versus a comparable opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals in a game they are actually favored in for once.
McKissic's only true claim to play time aside from his ability to catch passes is his very sturdy pass-blocking ability. He is graded out as one of the best RBs in that category by PFF with a 83.7/100 score. While many argue that his presence is "holding back" Antonio Gibson, Gibson is one of the worst with a 20.5 score, albeit on just 14 snaps. McKissic will still see his fair share of snaps on Sunday as well as targets but given that he has only scored one touchdown on the season and is averaging just 4.7 yards-per-target, it is safe to assume that without double-digit targets this week, he is a bust.
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