RADIO
Dom Petrillo identifies fantasy football draft targets to prioritize in standard leagues, but fade in PPR (points per reception) leagues in 2018.
With the draft season coming upon us quickly, there are many players on fantasy owners' radars as possible breakouts. There are probably articles out there for any given player you can think of as to why they should be drafted. Instead of the same old article, let’s look at some players who, while they should be drafted in standard leagues, should be faded or at least lowered in your PPR leagues.
When this topic comes up, the main thing people think of is running backs without pass-catching potential. Yes, this is true, but we will also look at a few wide receivers who fit the bill as well as a tight end who may disappoint in PPR despite the chance of grabbing touchdowns.
To see the other side of the coin, check out players who should be targeted in PPR, but faded in standard leagues.
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Standard Values, PPR Fades
C.J. Anderson (RB, CAR) - Do you realize C.J. Anderson actually ran for over 1,000 yards in 2017? 1,007 on 245 rushing attempts to be exact. He also had 28 receptions for 224 yards and one touchdown on 40 targets in the receiving game. So why should he be faded in PPR? Quite simply, his teammate. Christian McCaffery is an elite pass catcher out of the backfield. He led the league in receptions and targets to a running back in 2017 and while the numbers may regress slightly, he is still the pass-catching back in Carolina. Anderson will have a lot of value as a running back and he should again get close to 1,000 yards if not over. He will though lose out on the receiving work meaning he will have to make his hay strictly in the run game. With the Stature of McCaffery, he will not be the goal line back, it will be Anderson and Cam Newton pounding the rock in close. This means the touchdown production should be higher than last season for Anderson which will make up for his lack of catches. But it also leaves him a better standard pick than it does PPR.
Leonard Fournette (RB, JAX) - With all the hype coming into this season surrounding the Jaguars, you would think the Beatles are coming to Shea Stadium or something. Caught up directly in the hype is their star running back Leonard Fournette. While he is going to be a stud this season, much like he was when he played last season, there are some concerns with Fournette. First and foremost is his propensity to miss games due to lingering ankle injuries which go back to college. If he continues to miss two or three games a season due to his ankle or the cold weather, his production will also start to slide. The production last season was due in part to a handful of long runs culminating in touchdowns. If those runs do not come as often, which is likely, he is just another running back in the league. The other issue for this season is his draft price. Going in the first round is slightly questionable, but going over running backs like Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook is where the lack of value comes in.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN) Coming off an ACL tear can be excused to a point. He was incredible last year as a rookie, even better than Fournette, but only for five games. So, we really don’t know what to really think of him yet. Much like Deshone Watson. Melvin Gordon, on the other hand, has only been getting better in each season of his career. Coming into this his fourth season, he will finally be an every-down back as he has shown an ability to get you points whether it be with just rushing, just receiving or both. If you are in a standard league, Fournette would be a great pick, maybe even top six as he is going to be fed the ball until he pukes. In PPR leagues though, there are better options both in the first round and later in the draft.
Josh Gordon (WR, CLE) - Not considering his brief absence from training camp, which at this point I see as a good thing as long as it is for clarity of mind and not a relapse, I still prefer Josh Gordon in standard leagues over PPR leagues in which his teammate Jarvis Landry will excel. Even in Gordons’s breakout season in which he finished as the number one overall receiver, he only finished with 87 receptions on 159 targets. Not only are the reception numbers likely to go down, but with the mentioned Jarvis Landry on the team, the 159 targets are not going to be there either. The reason for the high finish was his 1,646 yards as well as his nine touchdown catches in 14 games. While Tyrod Taylor is an incredible deep ball thrower, he does not do so often enough for Gordon to gain the momentum needed for this type of season. Not to mention Baker Mayfield may be the starter in Cleveland sooner than we think. As a receiver who has immensely high Y/R stats, Gordon is a solid standard pick in the late fourth or fifth round but if you are counting on reception numbers to buoy the stats, take a player like Larry Fitzgerald or Golden Tate over Josh Gordon.
Alshon Jeffrey (WR, PHI) - Having a great season in Philadelphia in 2017 coming off two injury-plagued last few seasons in Chicago, Alshon Jeffrey is being sought after in drafts this season to the point his draft position in the third round is entirely too high for his production level. For starters, we are not sure how two injuries will affect him to start the season. The first of those injuries is the ACL recovery of Carson Wentz. It looks as though he will start the season as the starter, but until we see him in game action during the preseason we don’t know if he is %100 healthy or not. While Nick Foles filled in admirably last year leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win, we really do not want to have to count on him for fantasy relevance of his surrounding weapons for much time in 2018. The other injury of concern is his own of course. Having shoulder surgery this offseason, he is another player which we don’t know his health status to start the year. Even last year in which he had a solid fantasy season, you were less happy with him in PPR than you were in standard.
Although he was the number one receiver on the Eagles, other than Zach Ertz, he finished with only 789 yards on 57 receptions and helped himself to a better-looking finish with his nine touchdown receptions. This should be the sample to look for as we progress ahead with Jeffrey in Philly. He will finish with around 60 receptions for 800 yards and around eight or nine touchdowns. This is good stats for standard leagues from a wide receiver two, but in PPR leagues he should be faded and taken more as a wide receiver three.
Jimmy Graham (TE, GB) - A tight end who in 2017 finished as the tight end number four with 57 receptions for 520 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he is going to a great offense with a future Hall of Famer at quarterback. What could go wrong? Well, a couple of things actually. First, he is going to an offense which includes a receiver in Davante Adams who, over the last two seasons has the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL with 24. Graham is also going to a team who has not used the tight end consistently since the days of Bubba Franks and Jermichael Finley. The team just does not use the tight end frequently, instead using their big receivers in the red zone. Last season, when Graham had his 10 touchdowns, he did so for one reason. He led the league with red zone target share at 38%. Adams was second in the league in that category, meaning there will not be enough room for both to keep up those numbers. I am throwing my hat behind the younger and more athletic receiver (may I add the one with the established comfort level from Aaron Rodgers). I cannot tell you flat-out to stay away from Graham in all instances, especially at the tight end position which is dreadful, but what I can say is don’t expect Jimmy Graham to replicate his 2017 production in 2018. His yardage numbers may be about the same, but you can expect regression both in receptions and in touchdowns meaning he is a better play in standard leagues than in PPR. Better yet, save him for best ball leagues.
