X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2019 Season in Review: Sonny Gray

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher (SP) Sonny Gray had a huge bounceback season in 2019. Connelly Doan evaluates his ADP in order to project fantasy baseball value for the 2020 MLB season.

2019 was a pivotal season for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, both from a real-game and fantasy perspective. The 2018 season turned out to be a complete dud for Gray, who, in his first full season with the Yankees, posted a poor 4.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 130 ⅓ innings pitched. With a move to a new team and new environment, 2019 offered Gray a chance to rebound and prove that he could still be an effective pitcher.

Gray not only proved himself capable, but thrived with the Reds; he compiled an 11-8 record with a stellar 2.87 ERA, tied his career-low in WHIP at 1.08, and racked up a career-high 29% strikeout rate over 175 ⅓ IP. Gray’s performance made him one of fantasy’s best bounce-back players and set him up as an intriguing option for 2020.

How did Gray turn things around to such a degree, and can he replicate his 2019 season? Let’s take a closer look at his performance from last season and what it could mean for him and potential fantasy owners this season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

From Weak Contact to Less Contact

There are a few things that stand out in terms of Gray’s underlying metrics, most of which seem to have stemmed from a change in his pitch mix. Gray has been known throughout his career as a pitch-to-contact groundball pitcher, relying primarily on a fastball-sinker combination with a career contact rate of 77.2%. This profile shifted in 2019 to that of a swing-and-miss pitcher. For comparison, Gray threw 57% fastballs and 39.5% breaking balls (curveball and slider) in 2018 but threw 46.5% fastballs and 45% breaking balls in 2019.

The change in pitch usage proved to be a great move for Gray. Both his fastball and breaking balls have a ton of spin on them (top-10 percent in baseball), but his fastball has never been overpowering at 93.3 MPH. His breaking balls, however, were quite effective due to the spin on them; Gray generated a 12.1% and 18.8% swinging-strike rate with his curveball and slider. Consequently, Gray’s contact numbers dropped (his 73.1% was a career-low) along with his hard-hit rate (33.3%) while his strikeout numbers jumped. His 3.97 SIERA suggests that Gray did get lucky in 2019, but his batted-ball profile, combined with his decreased contact, seems like a recipe for success. 

The interesting thing here is that Gray didn’t change his pitch mix because he developed a new pitch; instead, he merely threw his best swing-and-miss pitches more often while relying less on throwing fastballs to induce contact. While there is only one season’s worth of data for Gray’s new method, it was one of his best, suggesting good things to come in 2020.

 

New Team, Familiar Faces

The other set of circumstances to consider for Gray beyond his numbers were all the facets of leaving the Yankees to pitch on a new team, specifically the Reds. Many players have struggled playing in New York due to the atmosphere and relentless spotlight, so it was not necessarily shocking to see Gray perform the way he did. 

However, there couldn’t have been a better team for him to go to than the Reds. It has been documented that Gray grew up as a Reds fan and has been adopted by the fan base, rather than shunned like he was with the Yankees. Further, Gray’s move to the Reds allowed him to reunite with his college pitching coach, Derek Johnson. The relationship between the two seemed to have a positive effect.

It is difficult to measure exactly how much these conditions affected Gray. That being said, baseball is very much a mental game, so having a level of familiarity with your coaches, team, and city should not be ignored. Gray seems to have found his comfort zone in Cincinnati, much to the benefit of the Reds and fantasy owners.

 

2020 Forecast

In sum, Gray had an incredible bounceback season in 2019 and had encouraging underlying metrics to back it up. He threw more breaking pitches, which led to less contact, and the contact he did allow was just as encouraging, if not more so than what he has allowed in his career previously. Even if his ERA does regress some, his new strikeout numbers should make up for that. He is back with a familiar pitching coach and in a city that supports him and has a new method of pitching that works. With a team that has made some offseason moves to bolster their roster, Gray should be in a position to pitch well and earn some wins in 2020.

He is currently being drafted at about pick 102 overall, which ranks him as the 34th pitcher off the board. This puts him in the range of starters such as Corey Kluber, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Soroka, and Carlos Carrasco. Most of these pitchers have had success previously but are recovering from injuries or setbacks in 2019. Comparatively, Gray’s stock is clearly trending up from last season. As such, pick 102 seems like a reasonable spot for Gray, with upside closer to pick 90 if he can get closer to 200 IP.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
NBA

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF