Best Early-Season RB Matchups - Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Analysis

Draft season for redraft fantasy football leagues is rapidly approaching. The preseason is upon us and we will all excitedly watch live football again for the first time in months, inevitably over and underreacting to preseason and training camp results, and cross our fingers that preseason injuries will be at a minimum.

Many in the fantasy football space have spent all off-season preparing (and more importantly striving to prepare you) for draft day, the first chapter of the 2024 redraft fantasy season. Social media and published fantasy football content abound with draft strategies, mock drafts, sleepers, bold predictions, projections, and rankings, but one of my main points of emphasis (both in the preseason and weekly during the season) is focusing on fantasy strength of schedule (SOS).

Some may consider it a fool’s errand to attempt to project the strength of the schedule (real NFL or fantasy) before any regular season games have been played. But I enjoy giving it my best shot and stand by my research and process.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

 

Projected Strength of Schedule (SOS) Process

In this article, I will present my projected strength of schedule for the fantasy RB position, with a focus on the early part of the season (Weeks 1-4). Once a new season gets its legs, weekly fantasy matchups can be analyzed using fresh data.

A player’s strength of schedule should not be the sole reason you choose to draft or not draft that player. But it should be a piece of the puzzle. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players. If you are on the fence about a certain player at a given draft value, a brutal opening schedule should at least be factored into your decision.

By projecting matchup difficulties now and also breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., early, middle, late, and fantasy playoffs), it also allows you to strategize for potential trade attempts. Suppose a player has a favorable early season schedule followed by a brutal later season schedule. In that case, you might be able to reap the rewards of both the fantasy points and the subsequent value increase, then trade that player for a better later season schedule and vice versa.

You can keep your eyes on a talented player who underwhelms through a tough early season schedule and make a play for them before their schedule opens up. To that end, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at Weeks 5-9 ("Middle Season"), rather than just being displayed in the full-season color-coded chart.

We’ll start by looking at my season-long projections including some insight into my process and what data I use to project the strength of schedule. Then we’ll look closer at early season SOS (top 10 easiest and top 10 hardest in Weeks 1-4) as well as middle season SOS (top 10 easiest and top 10 hardest in Weeks 5-9) for fantasy RBs.

Fantasy matchups are something I’ve spent a lot of time on over the last three years. During the season I compile game log data for every game to arrive at raw fantasy points allowed to each position as soon as possible each week. The goal is to have the results available before waivers so matchup strength can be factored into those decisions.

Plenty of sites provide fantasy points allowed data. I choose to do it myself so I can rearrange and reorganize in ways I think are helpful. Raw points allowed are helpful but don’t tell the full story. It’s important to dig a little deeper and look at points allowed relative to an opponent’s average.

For example, if Team A gives up 25 fantasy points to Christian McCaffrey and Team B gives up the same number of points to Devin Singletary, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B having the same matchup difficulty versus RBs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Let’s say McCaffrey has averaged 22 points per game and Singletary has averaged 12 points per game. Using POA, Team A held McCaffrey three points under his average (a POA of -6) while Team B allowed Singletary to score 13 points above his average (a POA of +13). Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I add once the weeks add up is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.” Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

These are the two existing data sets in my process for preseason projections of fantasy strength of schedule:

1. Previous season POA rank (season-long).
2. Previous season POA over the team’s last five games (excluding Week 18).

Stopping there doesn’t account for the impact of changes made during the off-season. If we could simply use previous season results to predict what will happen the next season, fantasy football would be a lot easier (and less fun). For the future prediction piece of the process, I use Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for team defensive lines, linebackers, and secondaries. These grades are added to the equation in the following way:

• Versus QB: Defensive line and secondary grades.
• Versus RB: Defensive line and linebacker grades.
• Versus WRs: Secondary grades.
• Versus TE: Linebacker and secondary grades.

 

2024 Season-Long Fantasy SOS

I generated tables showing each team’s full season schedule with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s projected rank (1-32) versus the fantasy RB position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups. Higher number ranks with a green color represent easier matchups. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the full season schedule for RBs is included at the end of the article.

Also included are each team’s season-long SOS, which is the average of their opponents’ ranks in Weeks 1-17.

As described above, the projected ranks are based on:

• 2023 POA season-long rank
• 2023 POA rank over the team’s last five games (Weeks 13-17)
• 2024 PFF grades for defensive lines, linebackers, and secondaries
  • In this article, for RBs, it will be defensive line and linebacker grades

 

Softest Early Season Schedules – Process

In separating the full season into “early, middle, and late” time frames, I define each as follows:

• Early Season: Week 1-4
• Middle-Season: Weeks 5-9
• Late Season: Weeks 10-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at the Early and Middle Season schedules and the teams with the Top 10 easiest fantasy matchups for RBs. I will look closer at Late Season and Fantasy Playoffs in a future article.

My process for determining the Top 10 easiest Early Season schedules for each team’s RB group is the same as season-long. I average the opponents' ranks in Weeks 1-4 for each team, and the ten highest averages comprise the Top 10.

When I wrote this article during the 2023 off-season, I introduced what I call “Top-Heavy” schedules. Some of the “easy schedules” that are initially determined by average projected rank tend to include an additional top-heavy characteristic:

1. Top-Heavy schedule: A mixture of bottom-ranked opponents with one Top 10 matchup. This could also be called “Extreme Matchups.” In this scenario, there may be one week where you are hesitant or at least need to curb expectations, but outside of that, the probability of ceiling games for your fantasy players on those teams is higher. I developed a formula for determining Top-Heavy schedules. I remove each team’s most difficult matchup from the average rank. I then averaged the remaining three ranks. From there I added the difference between 32 (easiest rank) and the new average of the team’s three easiest ranks. This is then filtered from highest to lowest to show the Top-Heavy SOS score and rank. The purpose here is to remove the impact of the one difficult matchup on the overall average while also accounting for just how easy the easier matchups are. The bigger the difference between 32 and the average of the team’s easiest three matchups, the lower the score, because that difference is being subtracted.

The reason I chose to look at this particular breakdown was to determine if there is a significant deviation from the score arrived at by simply averaging the ranks of the first four opponents. I know we cannot simply ignore difficult matchups, but I would rather take my potential lumps with one brutal matchup if it means the chances are higher that the other three opponents could be week-winning matchups. The results? The order the teams fall in using the Top-Heavy SOS score is very close to the order generated by averaging the rank of the first four opponents, with some notable exceptions.

 

Soft Early Season Schedules – RBs

The following chart shows the teams with the Top 10 easiest Early Season schedules for fantasy RBs, along with the rest of the teams from 11 to 32.

The following chart shows each Top 10 team’s matchup rank (color-coded) in Weeks 1 through 4, followed by the average rank and Top-Heavy score.

The easiest Early Season RB schedules are littered with fantasy-relevant RBs. Here are the relevant RBs comprising the Top 10 easiest schedules in Weeks 1-4: Najee Harris (and Jaylen Warren), Jahmyr Gibbs (and David Montgomery), Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler (and Brian Robinson Jr.), D’Andre Swift, and Isiah Pacheco.

Najee Harris (with some Jaylen Warren sprinkled in) should eat early and often, as Pittsburgh has the easiest Early Season RB schedule looking at both First 4 SOS and Top-Heavy SOS, and by a good margin over the Lions with the second-easiest Early Season SOS. The Steelers’ Early Season RB schedule scores the highest (easiest) of any position group with nothing anywhere close to a Top 10 toughest matchup. Pittsburgh’s toughest Early Season matchup is Week 4 in Indianapolis, and the Colts rank as the seventh-easiest RB matchup.

Najee Harris stiff arms 😲💪 pic.twitter.com/6IM8Dda1TO

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 7, 2024

The Lions’ Early Season schedule is more middle-of-the-pack than the Steelers, but their First 4 SOS is buoyed by a Week 3 matchup against the 32nd-ranked Cardinals. This is why they move from second to the fourth-easiest schedule when looking at Top-Heavt SOS. The other side of that discrepancy coin is the Chiefs. The Chiefs’ Early Season RB schedule ranks as the 10^th-easiest in First 4 SOS, but they’re tied for fourth (with Detroit) in Top-Heavy SOS. The reason for this is Kansas City kicks off the season against the third-toughest RB matchup (Ravens), but by Week 3 they get two consecutive Top 5 easiest matchups (28^th-ranked Falcons and 30th-ranked Chargers).

The Commanders’ Top 10 Early Season RB schedule is a bit misleading. Like Detroit, Washington gets the 32^nd-ranked Cardinals in the first month, but their schedule outside of that cake matchup includes the 16^th-ranked Buccaneers, 13th-ranked Giants, and 11^th-ranked Bengals. This is reflected in Washington’s Top-Heavy score, which is easily the lowest of the group.

Continuing in the direction of tougher RB matchups, here are the Top 10 toughest early-season schedules for fantasy RBs.

Whatever form the Dallas backfield takes will have a tough go early on. The Cowboys face Top 10 toughest RB opponents in each of the first three weeks (second-ranked Browns, eighth-ranked Saints, and third-ranked Ravens). Even their softest matchup is a Top 15 opponent (15^th-ranked Giants). Baltimore also starts with some tough RB sledding, with two Top 10 and two Top 15 toughest RB matchups in the first four games.

Starting to realize that if I'm betting on Chase Brown > Zack Moss, it makes sense to go with Rico Dowdle > Ezekiel Elliott.

Similar situation:

Wide-open opportunity in explosive offense.

I still like Zeke to dominate red-zone touches, but Dowdle is starting to intrigue me.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 6, 2024

The following chart shows each team’s matchup rank (color-coded) for fantasy RBs in Weeks 5 through 9 (Middle Season), followed by the average rank and Top-Heavy score.

The Panthers and 49ers both jump from the Top 10 toughest early-season RB schedules to the Top 10 easiest middle-season RB schedules. Outside of their Week 9 matchup with the eighth-ranked Saints, the Panthers’ toughest opponent is the 19^th-ranked Bears, and they have three consecutive RB matchups ranked 28^th (Falcons), 27^th (Commanders), and 31^st (Broncos). The 49ers’ soft Middle Season RB schedule is another one that is propped up with a Cardinals matchup Outside of that, they have two Top 10 toughest matchups and a bye.

The Bears and Lions both keep the good times rolling, remaining among the Top 10 easiest middle-season schedules. In Weeks 5-9, the Bears mirror the Steelers’ Early Season spot atop the favorable matchups mountain. The Bears have far and away the highest First 4 SOS and Top-Heavy SOS. You probably noticed that this is not unfamiliar territory for the Bears, as they sit atop the Middle Season SOS list for QBs and WRs as well. Their schedule is that good Weeks 5-9.

Caleb Williams on this Bears offense:

"We're gonna be explosive" pic.twitter.com/KFydzg8BeB

— Ficky (@itsfickybaby) August 6, 2024

Here is the chart showing the Top 10 toughest middle-season schedules for fantasy RBs.

A multitude of teams move from the Top 10 easiest to the Top 10 toughest schedules during the middle season. The Chiefs, Steelers, Eagles, Commanders, and Texans all see their RB schedules stiffen up after the first month, with the largest increase in difficulty going to the Steelers. They go from the top early-season RB schedule (by far) to the second-toughest Middle Season schedule (and they have their bye).

Only two teams ride the stingy matchups train and make the Top 10 toughest RB SOS during both timeframes. The Vikings and the aforementioned Cowboys.

Here is the difference in SOS between each team’s early and middle season schedule for the fantasy RB position, sorted from highest (schedule gets easier) to lowest (schedule gets harder).

Before I go, I will leave you with the full-season heat map schedules for each team versus the fantasy RB position. The strength of schedule for the other fantasy skill positions (QB, WR, TE, and DST) will be presented in future articles Good luck in your upcoming drafts, and have a great fantasy season in 2024!

 

2024 Strength of Schedule vs. RB

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will not be writing the weekly DST article for Rotoballer again this year, but I will still be compiling the data, and I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

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