Second Base Draft Sleepers for 2020

April 1, 2020

Eric Samulski recommends five sleeper picks at second base based on their current ADP. Look for these players to provide late-round value in your 2020 fantasy baseball drafts.

There's a lot of talk heading into 2020 fantasy baseball drafts that there simply isn't any depth at second base. Shortstop is where the value lies, so everybody is planning to double-tap the position to also fill their MI spot too. As a result, most drafts see people pounce on the top second baseman early to avoid being left with the dregs.

However, while second base is certainly among the shallowest positions this year, there are still players being grossly undervalued by the current ADP market. They might not all be the sexiest picks, but targeting one of these guys in your draft will allow you to take the best available hitters (and maybe a pitcher or two) early on without having to force-feed a second baseman onto your team.

All ADP listed below are using NFBC data, set to Online Championships, from 3/1/2020 to 3/24/2020

Mike Moustakas (2B/3B, CIN)

ADP: 97

Mike Moustakas has always had under-appreciated power numbers, hitting 38, 28, and 35 home runs over the last three years. He's done all of that with a career average over .250 and increasing BB% numbers that led to an impressive 7.7 K%-BB%, which is incredibly small for a power hitter.

What's more, it appears as though Moose's power outburst last year was because of more than just moving to a hitter's park. By dropping his average launch angle from 19.6 to 17.1 (left), it may have helped lead to his career-high barrel% and increases in Sweet Spot%, xSLG, and xwOBAcon.

It's possible that by lowering his launch angle to a degree near the bottom end of the optimal home run range, he was able to correct his bat path to ensure more consistent contact. At a bare minimum, the decrease in launch angle led to a 6% drop in infield fly balls, which suggests that he wasn't getting under the ball as much as he had been in years past and was able to drive the ball out of the park.

Now that he's moving to a better hitter's park, Moose could be in for a big season. There's clear potential for him to build on his gains from last year and push 40 home runs, which makes him particularly intriguing with his multi-position eligibility.

Ryan McMahon (2B/3B, COL)

ADP: 181

One thing the delay to the start of the season has done is allowed more time for people to get on board the Ryan McMahon hype train. The 25-year-old got 539 plate appearances for the Rockies last year and hit .250/.329/450 with 20 home runs, 83 RBI, 70 runs, and five stolen bases. However, the Statcast metrics suggest that there's more to look forward to.

Last season, McMahon upped his Barrel% by 4% and his exit velocity by 2.5% up to 91.4 mph, which is in the top 10% in the league. What's more, his Hard Hit% rose to 47.7%, which was top 9% in the league, and he both dropped his K% and raised his BB%. Yet, what's most intriguing about McMahon is the power growth he showed in the second half of the season. In the final 70 games of 2019, the left-handed hitter knocked 17 balls out of the park while also hitting nine doubles and slugging .500.

However, he did all of that with a descending launch angle (right). Which, on the surface, makes absolutely no sense. McMahon raised his launch angle for the season last year (to 8.4-degrees), but he has below average launch angle overall with a massive late-season decrease, so how did his power numbers go up?

The easy answer would be the juiced ball or Coors Field. The more complicated answer is a more dynamic road pre-game strategy that The Athletic chronicled where Rockies hitters "started using a pitching machine that could duplicate pitches with high spin rates and velocity, a three-rotor machine [they] could tune to mimic that night’s pitcher." After that shift in mid-July, McMahon's xSLG went up almost 100 points.

That success also carried over into March. Despite the low-level competition and small sample size of spring training, McMahon was hitting .296/.406/.667 with three home runs. If the power output is here to stay, just between 20-25 home runs, you're looking at a .250-.260 hitter with 20+ home run and 70 run and RBI upside with potential for more because of his home park. Plus, he's dual-position eligible. All of that makes him tremendous value as a MIF pick going just inside the top 200.

Rougned Odor  (2B, TEX)

ADP: 223

I swear I was not a Rougned Odor fan coming into the season. If anything, I had shares of Nick Solak in keeper leagues and was hoping that he could push Odor aside. But the more I keep reading, the more I think a breakout is coming for Odor.

First, for a player with questionable plate discipline, he improved his BB% from 4.9% to 8% to 9% over the last three seasons.

It's not a game-changing shift, but it's real progress, especially when paired with an O-Swing% that has dropped from 38.3% to 35.4% to 33.1% over the same span.

With Odor becoming more selective, he has a chance to put his hard contact skills to work. He's increased his barrels each of the last three seasons before this outburst last year, which saw him jump from 7.1% barrels to 13.6%. Pair that with an 86-percentile Hard-Hit% and a nearly five-degree increase in launch angle, up to 16.2-degrees (the 14th largest launch angle growth in baseball in 2019) and you have a bat that looks like it can provide consistent power.

In fact, Odor has hit 30 home runs and stolen at least 10 bases in three of the last four seasons. You're not going to get that from very many players, and certainly not any going this late in the draft. With more contact and more powerful contact, Odor could put together another 30-10 season with a batting average around .230, which, if you remove his batting average from the equation, is enough to give him a rbEDV around pick 110 (23 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 77 runs and 74 RBIs).

Michael Chavis (1B/2B, BOS)

ADP: 259

Everybody loves rostering hitters with multi-position eligibility. We talk about the roster flexibility it gives us and the advantage in both H2H and Roto leagues for maximizing at-bats and counting stats. Yet, all the attention is paid to guys like McMahon, Tommy Edman, or Ketel Marte, among others. Nobody wants to mention Michael Chavis. In 2019, Chavis played 49 games at 1B and 43 games at 2B, plus the Red Sox were using him in the outfield during spring training. That means Chavis could very well have 1B/2B/OF eligibility during the season.

Part of the reason the Red Sox want to play him all over the field is that they're determined to get his bat in the lineup. In 95 games during his rookie season last year, Chavis hit .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs, 58 RBI, and 46 runs. He had an 11.4 Barrel%, an average exit velocity of 88 mph, and a Hard Hit% of 34.5%. All of which suggests strong contact ability and the chance to improve on his power numbers.

However, what makes Chavis more interesting is when you factor in his second-half decline last year. In his first 70 games, Chavis hit .263/.332/.467 with 15 home runs, 48 RBI, 38 runs and two steals. In his next 26 games, he hit .221/.286/.364 with three home runs, 10 RBI, and eight runs and then missed the rest of the season with an oblique injury.

During this stretch, his average exit velocity was still above league average, but his xSLG and xBA (left) all took a nosedive. While this could be a signal that the league figured him out, the rise in xBA at the end of his season implies otherwise. It's perhaps more likely that Chavis, who had only played over 100 games once in his professional career, back in 2017, began to wear down or feel the effects of that oblique injury.

He's not a perfect player. He still has too much swing-and-miss to his game, but he has a firm place in the Red Sox lineup, so it's feasible to seem him play 120-130 games and finish with a .250 average to go along with 25 home runs, 70+ RBI, and 60+ runs. When you add that to his multi-position eligibility and his price, that's a pretty solid draft value.

Starlin Castro  (2B/3B, WAS)

ADP: 263

Castro was quietly effective in Miami last year, hitting .270 with 22 home runs, 68 runs and 86 RBIs. Now he moves to a much stronger Washington lineup and a better offensive park. People should be all over him, but his ADP is falling because many projection systems seem to have him playing 120 games or fewer. I'm not sure I understand that.

The power numbers for Castro were based on intentional changes to his hitting approach. His launch angle changed in the second half of the season, putting him above the league average and around a minimum of 15 degrees for much of the month, an optimal angle for home runs. However, perhaps more importantly, his teammate Miguel Rojas explained a clear mechanical shift:

"Mechanically, he made just a little adjustment to drive the ball more in the air instead of hard ground balls...And if you ask him, he changed his bat. So after changing his bat, he started feeling much better about himself at the plate. Those are the kind of things in the middle of the season, when you’re not having a good one, you change your bat and all of a sudden you start hitting the ball well.”

So, we have a conscious mechanical change that supports increased power, and now he's moving to a better hitter's park and will be hitting in a stronger lineup? What's not to like? Even with Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick back, Castro should see close to full playing time. Carter Kieboom is not a lock to take the third base job, and Castro could slide to the hot corner if the Nationals decide to get innings at second for Cabrera or Kendrick, who can also get his at-bats in the outfield.

Castro saw legit growth last year, cutting his K% and increasing his hard contact for the third year in a row. In the middle of a strong offense, there's no reason he can't push for 20+ home runs and another 80+ RBI season with a strong batting average.

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