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Frank's overvalued outfielders - potential fantasy baseball busts, avoids, fades at their current ADPs for 2026. He believes these hitters are too expensive.
When drafting your fantasy baseball team, you want to stay clear of potential landmines. These are players with red flags who could be major busts at their current price tag.
In this article, we're going to focus on five outfielders who are clear avoids for me this season. Each of these outfielders is drafted in the top-140 of NBFC drafts, so they're relatively expensive.
With that in mind, find out why Pete Crow-Armstrong, Byron Buxton, Randy Arozarena, George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez are my five outfielder busts to avoid in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. For this piece, we'll use NFBC ADP since February 7.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
NFBC ADP: 31.78
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Second Half: 246 PA
.262 OBP 24 R
25.6% K% 6 HR
4.5% BB% 24 RBI
.634 OPS 8 SB
72 wRC+ .216 AVG
.156 ISO pic.twitter.com/WpfqwM8VHI— Matthew Davis (@mattywood) February 25, 2026
Pete Crow-Armstrong was unbelievable in the first half last season, slashing .265/.302/.544 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 401 plate appearances. But everything fell apart after the All-Star Break, as highlighted by a .216/.262/.372 slash with six homers and eight steals in 246 plate appearances. The second-half collapse indicates that pitchers found a weakness in PCA's approach and exploited it with great success, so that's concerning.
Despite the fall-off, PCA routinely goes in the third round of fantasy baseball drafts. Players are still enamored with the power-speed upside. PCA's streaky nature is insulated by his elite defense, which keeps his bat in the lineup every day, even when he's in a slump. However, it's hard to justify such a high pick on a hitter who struggles against lefties. Last season, Crow-Armstrong registered a 59 wRC+ vs. southpaws.
While there's certainly a chance that PCA can show improvements in plate discipline and against lefties this year, as he's still only 23 years old, I'll let someone else pay that due to this hefty cost. At this stage of the draft, I'm either looking for my SP1 or taking a hitter with fewer question marks regarding skill. In fact, I'd rather just wait one round and target Wyatt Langford, who has much better plate discipline.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
NFBC ADP: 72.39
Byron 2026 projections via @fangraphs depth charts
130 G
560 PA
.249/.317/.489 (.806 OPS)
29 HR
76 RBI
17 SB
119 wRC+
3.6 fWAR pic.twitter.com/gAGnnjayfS— SleeperTwins (@SleeperMLBTwins) February 25, 2026
Byron Buxton finally stayed healthy last season, putting up 542 plate appearances, which was a career high. In fact, it was only Buxton's second season with 500+ plate appearances. The results were spectacular, including a .264/.327/.551 slash with 35 homers and 24 steals. You have to love the batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 17.6% barrel rate, which is absolutely elite.
But here's the thing: you're now paying a premium on one of the most injury-prone players in the game. The time to target Buxton was last year, when he came at a rock-bottom price. Why would you take the risk now that he's a top-75 pick? Add in the fact that Buxton plays for a Twins team that is trending downward, and you can see why this is a fade. Playing for a bottom-feeder could hurt Buxton's counting stats.
Yes, there's a chance Buxton could be dealt to a contender, but as I've learned from Luis Robert Jr. with the White Sox, that can sometimes take longer than expected. If you want an injury-prone player with a high ceiling, target Buxton's teammate, Royce Lewis, instead. At least the opportunity cost is much lower in Lewis than in Buxton, so I prefer to make that move.
Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
NFBC ADP: 87.28
Randy Arozarena put up a .238/.334/.426 slash with 27 homers and 31 steals in 709 plate appearances last season. It's great to see that Arozarena has put up 640+ plate appearances in four consecutive seasons, which adds to his appeal as a potential high-floor option who could provide a boost in power and speed. With that said, Arozarena is a fade for me as he enters his age-31 season.
I simply can't pay a top-90 price on a hitter who can be such a heavy burden on your batting average. In the last two seasons, Arozarena has hit .238 and .219. Even with the 20-20 production, that's not going to cut it, especially since batting average has become a scarce category. Add in the fact that Arozarena plays in a pitcher-friendly environment in T-Mobile Park, and this is a tough spot.
The downside here is, what if Arozarena maintains a low batting average, but his stolen bases get back to the low-20s instead of the 30s? After all, Arozarena has 20 and 22 steals in his previous two seasons. Essentially, you need him to get close to 30 steals with 25+ homers to pay off this price due to his low batting average. For that reason, I'm out.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
NFBC ADP: 92.53
He did it again.
George Springer's second home run of the night, this one 445 feet. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/P2sAjfer2H
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) August 27, 2025
George Springer turned back the clock with a remarkable season for the Blue Jays, slashing .309/.399/.560 with 32 homers and 18 steals in 586 plate appearances. After three consecutive seasons with a sub-10% barrel rate, Springer bumped that back up to 15.8%. We also saw him improve his bat speed from 52nd percentile to 73rd percentile, per Baseball Savant.
While Springer's price hasn't gotten *that* expensive when you consider what he did last year, I'm still fading at the top-100 cost. This is a hitter who has dealt with injuries throughout his career and is set to enter his age-36 season. I know what he did was so impressive last year, but I'm not about to trust an outfielder at this advanced age and high price.
What if we see Springer drop back down to a .260 AVG with the steals drying up since he's getting older, something like only five stolen bases? That definitely feels within his range of outcomes. You could also see the Jays rest Springer at times to keep him fresh for the stretch run. I'd rather take a swing for the fences for Robert at this price, as a change of scenery to the Mets is likely to result in a boost in production.
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
NFBC ADP: 128.72
Teoscar Hernandez has been a high-floor outfielder for a few years now, but he started to show signs of decline last year, slashing .247/.284/.454 with 25 homers and five steals in 546 plate appearances. We saw a steep drop in Hernandez's barrel rate, which fell from 14.9% to 11.5%. There's also the issue of his defense, as he's become one of the worst defensive outfielders in MLB.
With the Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker and Andy Pages continuing to improve, Hernandez could find his way near the bottom of the lineup. That's going to hurt his counting stats, especially RBI, which is one of the main selling points with drafting him. There's also a small chance the Dodgers rest him at times to keep him fresh for the postseason. A team this deep has the luxury to do something like that.
Considering these circumstances, I'll let someone else go with Hernandez in the draft. If you want a potential value pick on the Dodgers, go with Pages. At least his defense is decent, which can keep his bat in the lineup. I'd rather be one year too early than one year too late on a declining player, and I think that's exactly what Hernandez is right now.
There feels like more downside than upside here at this point.
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