If you’re a regular reader of RotoBaller (and how could someone as smart, funny, and handsome as you not be?), you’ve doubtless already checked out our rankings assistant tool. We just rolled out our final preseason update. With draft season ramping up, it seems like a good time to check our expert opinions against the wisdom of the crowds. We continue to highlight players with notable discrepancies between their ADP and how the staff here at RotoBaller views their 2016 value.

All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros. Quoted figures are the players’ ranking at their position and not their overall ADP.

Starting Pitchers We Prefer

Luis Severino

ADP: 50th | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 35th | My Rank: 44th

I’m actually closer to the average owner than my colleagues on this one, but still have Severino ranked higher than his ADP. As a 21 year old rookie with less than 125 innings above A-ball, he struck out nearly a batter per inning and flashed a 2.89 ERA, so it’s obvious why he’s a chic breakout pick in some circles. That said, some ERA regression should be expected, particularly if he persists in allowing home runs at the rate he did last year. It’s not unreasonable to expect improvement there, since he was quite good at limiting the long ball throughout his minor league tenure. Severino’s ultimate upside in 2016 may be restricted by his team, however, as the Yankees continuing to cap his pitch counts would prevent him from throwing much more than 160 innings.

Patrick Corbin

ADP: 59th | RB Rank: 41st | My Rank: 34th

The two biggest problems any pitcher faces in returning from Tommy John surgery are diminished velocity and control. Corbin’s 16 starts were quite encouraging in this regard, as he showed no ill effects from the long layoff. His fastball was actually faster than his career average and he also posted a career-best walk rate. Corbin was carefully handled by the Diamondbacks, averaging a mere 5.3 innings per start, so it remains to be seen if he can maintain those gains when asked to pitched deeper into games again. Still, it’s tough to find guys with his combination of floor and upside this late in most drafts.

Joe Ross

ADP: 71st | RB Rank: 54th | My Rank: 40th

Ross was never all that exciting as a prospect. Given the other players involved in the trade that brought him to Washington (Wil Myers, Steven Souza, Trea Turner), it’s not surprising that little of the ink spilled on that deal involved him. What was surprising was his performance last season. Ross dominated across two levels before getting the call to make 13 starts for the Nationals. While he faded late, Ross still produced an excellent 22.0 K% and 1.11 WHIP as a rookie. Like his brother Tyson Ross, Joe is a sinker/slider specialist with a heavy emphasis on the latter. Ross’s slider generated a swinging strike 26% of the time, trailing only a couple of dudes named Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Carrasco. He does need to develop his changeup into a legitimate third offering, but his brother’s managed to succeed with a similarly specialized repertoire despite bouts of wildness – a problem the younger Ross doesn’t have.

Clay Buchholz

ADP: 72nd | RB Rank: 50th | My Rank: 42nd

Skepticism toward Buchholz is completely understandable. After all, he’s failed to top 120 innings in three of the last five seasons, and he ran a 4.92 ERA in the two healthy years. On the other hand, Buchholz flashed legitimately impressive improvement last season with career best marks in K-BB%, SwStr%, and hard-hit rate. This seems at least partially attributable to an altered grip on his changeup, rather than simply a fluke of small samples. And not for nothing, his Steamer projections are eerily similar to those of John Lackey, Shelby Miller, and Collin McHugh, who are all being drafted over 100 picks earlier.

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