RADIO
Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. His RB lineups advice for Week 12 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
It's officially Byemageddon. Fantasy managers will need to dig deep this week as Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Chase Brown, Travis Etienne Jr., Alvin Kamara, and Breece Hall are all forced to sit out.
With all those backs on bye, fantasy managers must feel like it's the week before Christmas, the week when you're completely broke and can't afford anything. So, we are all forced to window shop and dream what may have been.
That said, we will do our best to avoid getting "Grinch'd" and spread a little pre-holiday cheer with the RotoBaller Week 12 starts and sits at the running back position.
Week 12 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Tyrone Tracy Jr. - RB, New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a change at quarterback, a spark of life can return to this Giants offense. On Monday, we heard Daniel Jones would be benched in favor of fan favorite Tommy Devito. We are only a week away from a Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito Thanksgiving showdown.
Ok, enough about DeVito, let's talk about Tracy. Between Week 5 through Week 10, Tracy produced 89.2 fantasy points, the 10th most among the running back position, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game. Don't look now, but heading into their Week 11 bye, the Giants held the second-best rushing EPA in the league since Tracy took over this backfield, something that the fantasy production confirms.
Tracy has displayed an explosive playmaking ability, one that has been showcased by 4.7% of his carries going for more than 20 yards, including that 33-yard touchdown run in Munich the last time we saw him in action.
This week, the Giants face a Buccaneers team that has allowed a league-high 29.05 fantasy points per game to opposing backs over the last four weeks. In those four weeks, Tampa Bay has surrendered 642 total yards and five touchdowns.
The #Giants receive much needed offense from rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr
He found a cut-back lane and accelerated past several #Panthers for a 32 yard TD run
One way to avoid your league-worst red zone scoring is to create explosive plays. Tracy Jr. continues to be a bright spot pic.twitter.com/pAfV5dxdbi
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) November 10, 2024
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Let's stick with this Buccaneers-Giants showdown. Tampa Bay may not be great at defending opposing running backs, but the Giants aren't much better. We know the Buccaneers need to improve when defending opposing backs, especially in the passing game, but New York has no room to talk. Over the last four weeks, the Giants have allowed backs to run for 679 yards and haul in 15 receptions for 109 yards.
The disparity in the rushing yards allowed versus receiving yards allowed to the position gives Bucky Irving the nod over Rachaad White on this week's "start list," although both are more than serviceable.
Since Week 6, Irving has averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game, which has him as the RB15 over that period. Irving has also averaged 5.1 yards per carry this season and has scored a touchdown in three of his last five contests.
For a team like the Giants, who have been giving it up on the ground, Irving is the last back they likely wanted to see. When you look at the data leading up to the Buccaneers' bye, missed tackles forced versus scrimmage yards per touch, only James Conner has proved to be more elusive in the run game than Irving.
Missed Tackles Forced vs. Yards from Scrimmage per touch
[Through Week 10, via @FantasyPtsData]
- Bucky Irving and James Conner clearly the most elusive runners in the league right now
- Gibbs/Henry/Barkley are explosive play demons this year
- Greg Roman loves Gus Edwards pic.twitter.com/Y18Dy9HQYz
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 14, 2024
Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Let's keep our focus on great matchups for fantasy production. Last week, Josh Jacobs finished as a top-5 fantasy back thanks to the 22 fantasy points he accumulated against the Chicago Bears. In that game, Jacobs averaged 4.2 yards per carry, scored a touchdown, and caught five passes for 58 receiving yards.
Chicago has allowed 24.87 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, and Aaron Jones presents a skill set similar to the one it faced in Jacobs the previous week. In 10 games this season, Jones sits second on the Vikings with 29 receptions and is third on the team with 262 receiving yards. Add his receiving total with his rushing total, and Jones is averaging 95.4 scrimmage yards per game, the 10th most.
Aaron Jones may not see a 60% snap share tjese days, but the dude is efficient sitting 10th in scrimmage yards per game this season. pic.twitter.com/KHjiy9d79B
— Matt Donnelly (@MattDonnellyFF) November 18, 2024
While Jones may no longer be a bell cow, the matchup is too good to pass up. Consider Jones a solid RB2 this week.
Week 12 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
It's ok to admit that the Patriots offense has looked more like an NFL offense since Drake Maye took over under center. But we also have to admit that matchups against the Dolphins have been more difficult in recent weeks, as Miami has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game over the last few weeks.
Second, sometimes fantasy points lie. Numbers do lie, and I'll prove it. In Week 8 through Week 11, Stevenson ranks eighth in fantasy points, averaging 6.9 fantasy points per game. In those four contests, Stevenson has four total touchdowns despite not averaging more than 3.7 yards per carry in any of those games. You have to return to Week 5 to find a game where he averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry.
While scoring a touchdown isn't completely off the table this week, it's not something I would count on. The game script is likely to limit Stevenson to the passing game, which limits his opportunities to a degree. Consider the Patriots back as a low-end RB2 or flex option this week.
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
I mentioned that Jones is no longer considered a bell cow. Well, it was odd to see D'Andre Swift's carry share dip below 60% last week (58.3%) in what was a highly contested contest. Even his 10.7 weighted opportunities were his lowest such total since the opening week of the season. What grinds fantasy managers' gears is that Roschon Johnson handled three of the four carries inside the 10-yard line.
If not for a 39-yard touchdown run, Swift's day would have been a disaster, as he averaged just 2.46 yards per carry outside of that one run. This week, it doesn't get any easier facing a Vikings team whose 16.79 fantasy points per game allowed is the second-fewest, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs.
The bottom line is that it comes to opportunities. In new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown's first game calling plays, the Bears backfield was evenly split. Swift held a 41-30 edge in snaps over Johnson. However, routes and opportunities were even closer, with a slight edge going in Swift's favor, 18-12 in routes and 16-11 in total opportunities.
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I just mentioned that the only defense tougher than the Vikings in fantasy football against the running back position is the Kansas City Chiefs, so it's only right that the back facing the Chiefs this week earns a place on your bench.
While Hubbard will still see a majority of the touches, he will give way to both Jonathon Brooks and Miles Sanders at times, especially if he isn't fully recovered from that knee sprain he had back in Week 10.
I like Hubbard, and so do the Panthers. Otherwise, they would never have offered him that new deal in the middle of the season. However, despite James Cook producing a pair of touchdowns last week, the Chiefs still allow a league-low 14.87 fantasy points per game to the position.
Cook could have been better last week, regardless of the fantasy numbers. Of his 19 fantasy points, 63% came on those two touchdowns. Kansas City held Cook to five receptions for seven yards and 20 yards on nine rushing attempts. Fantasy points are great, but they only tell the whole story occasionally.
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