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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 12 of 2024. His QB lineups advice for Week 12 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Week 11, like every week before, proved to be unpredictable for fantasy quarterbacks. In the top 10 last week, we saw Jared Goff put up over 40 fantasy points, Bo Nix and Matthew Stafford top 35 fantasy points each, and Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, and Sam Darnold exceed expectations and top 25 fantasy points.
This week, the bye week hits harder than in previous weeks. The Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and the New York Jets all have the week off. That's right; six teams are off this week, leaving the options for quarterback thinner than usual.
Without further adieu, it's time to break down the Week 12 RotoBaller starts and sits for the quarterback position.
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Week 12 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
I mentioned Bo Nix and Jared Goff as top fantasy options last week as they went against Atlanta and Jacksonville. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, the Jaguars and Falcons are on their bye week, so we can't double down on that fantasy production. However, the Patriots did allow 35 fantasy points to Matthew Stafford, and Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season.
While the Patriots have been a solid defense for much of the season, Stafford was able to pick them apart thanks to the 100-yard performances turned in by both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, in which both receivers averaged more than 17.5 yards per reception and combined for three touchdowns.
Since Tagovailoa returned, the Miami quarterback has averaged 240 yards per contest, completing 78% of his passes. He has seen his passer rating surpass 112 and has thrown seven touchdowns with just one interception, including a trio of touchdown passes last week against the Raiders. Over the last three contests, Tagovaioa has averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game and has been the QB12.
🎥 Tua Tagovailoa's best plays vs. Las Vegas Raiders (@MiamiDolphins) #GoFins https://t.co/hitu4akuVx pic.twitter.com/Un2jnp4mA1
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 17, 2024
Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
From Weeks 1-4, Justin Herbert averaged just 10.6 fantasy points per game and sat as the QB27 in fantasy. Over that period, he never had a game where he would finish with more than 12 fantasy points. Since the Chargers' Week 5 bye, Herbert has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per contest (QB7), posting at least 13.5 fantasy points in each of the six contests.
Over the last four weeks, Herbert has finished as a top-12 quarterback each week in fantasy, doing so once again last week in a 24.4-point performance against the Bengals. In that contest, Herbert threw for 297 yards and a pair of scores while adding 65 yards on the ground.
justin herbert is a beast
📺 | @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/ygd24y1KgX
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 18, 2024
This week, Herbert and the Chargers welcome a Baltimore Ravens secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Not only are the Ravens allowing 25.50 fantasy points over that period, but they have also allowed 1,355 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes, and only three interceptions.
Herbert has thrown just one interception this season and is looking to become the second quarterback in NFL history to throw three or fewer interceptions on 450-plus passing attempts.
Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Nix is no longer a streaming option; he's an every-week starter. Last week, Nix did it again, tossing another four touchdown passes and 307 yards on his way to 36 fantasy points and a top-3 fantasy week. Nix currently ranks fifth in passing yards, is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns, and sits ninth in completion percentage over the last seven weeks.
Since Week 5, Nix has averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game, thanks to four of his last seven contests, resulting in 21 or more fantasy points.
On a point-per-game basis, that would have Nix ranked as the QB7, and this week, the Broncos signal-caller has another favorable matchup as the Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 18.51 fantasy points to the quarterback position this season and have surrendered the 12th-most to the position over the last four weeks.
Nix is the perfect quarterback for this Sean Payton offense. After all, he has thrown for 257 yards per game and 11 TDs over the last four games, trumping both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels over that time. The Broncos rookie leads all rookie quarterbacks with 19 touchdowns this season, five more than Daniels, who sits second.
Total TD among rookie this season
Bo Nix 19
Jayden Daniels 14
Drake Maye 10
Caleb Williams 9 pic.twitter.com/LhgAUGStdm— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 18, 2024
Week 11 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Jameis Winston - QB, Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Only the Chicago Bears have allowed fewer fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks than the Pittsburgh Steelers have.
However, no team allows fewer than the 9.43 fantasy points per game that the Steelers have limited the opposition over the last four weeks. Pittsburgh has allowed just 742 passing yards and one touchdown pass, while Joey Porter Jr. and company have three interceptions over that period.
Last week, the Steelers held MVP candidate Lamar Jackson to 16 of 33 passing for 207 yards, allowing that lone touchdown passing while also picking him off. If not for Jackson's 46 rushing yards, it would have been a fantasy letdown for fantasy managers who were lucky to escape with 16 fantasy points.
Historically speaking, Winston loves to try to squeeze passes in that he really shouldn't. He also isn't as mobile as Jackson, which leads many to believe that with T.J. Watt bearing down on him this week, there will be ample opportunity for multiple forced turnovers, capping any kind of ceiling Winston may have this week.
Matthew Stafford - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Coming off a 35-point fantasy performance and heading right into this week's "sit list" may be the ultimate on-to-next-week moment for fantasy managers. On the season, the Eagles are allowing the fifth-fewest (13.11) fantasy points to the quarterback position and have been even better over the last four weeks, ranking second to only the Pittsburgh Steelers, allowing just 9.62 fantasy points per game.
Like the Steelers, Philadelphia has allowed just one touchdown pass over the last four weeks and has picked off the opposition on four occasions, limiting quarterbacks to a 60% completion rate and 574 passing yards.
Also similar to the Steelers, the Eagles, thanks to Quinyon Mitchell, have successfully cut the field in half as the Eagles rookie has eliminated some of the best receivers in the game today this season.
When the Rams head into Philadelphia, they will be facing the top-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game. The Eagles are allowing just 273.1 yards per game, 173.2 passing yards per contest, and 99.9 rushing yards per game. As explosive as this Rams offense can be, the Eagles' defense has been just as good, if not better.
Brock Purdy - QB, San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
With six quarterbacks on byes this week, you likely can ill afford to sit Brock Purdy. Consider this a "temper your expectations" inclusion in this week's sit list.
Purdy is coming off a 20-point fantasy performance in Week 11, but it was not all that impressive. In that loss to Seattle, Purdy completed 21 of 28 passes but only had 159 passing yards to show for it, with 91 of those passing yards going to Jauan Jennings. Purdy also only threw that one touchdown, again to Jennings, but he ran for 40 yards and a score to boost those fantasy numbers.
Over the last four weeks, only the San Francisco 49ers have allowed fewer passing yards than the Packers, who have yielded 539 yards. Green Bay has also allowed just 12.75 fantasy points per game, the seventh-fewest, along with three touchdowns. If Purdy can scramble again, he can salvage his day, as the Packers allowed Caleb Williams to run for 70 yards on nine attempts just a week ago.
The bottom line is that I'm fading Purdy and Jordan Love in this matchup.
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