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“Hockey Week” is over with the NBA making its return to play tonight, but the NHL isn’t slowing down, giving us 11 games on tonight’s slate. There are a lot of teams in great spots up and down this slate, giving us many viable options for our lineups, but no teams stand out so much that we will feel left out if we aren’t chasing the chalk. Tampa Bay is probably in the best spot, but if you’re not comfortable using them, then there are a lot of teams you can make a strong pivot to.
DraftKings has four tournaments with an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Anthony Cirelli, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov)
Tampa threw their lines in a blender at practice on Wednesday, moving Anthony Cirelli up to the top line, Brayden Point down to the second line, and Mitchell Chaffee and Nicholas Paul down to the third line. If these lines stick, then that makes the top line for the Lightning more affordable than they’ve been in a long while, with Cirelli costing $2,800 less than Point.
Cirelli has matched Point’s 10 goals and assists over their last 10 games, so if this line is legitimate, then the production shouldn’t see any dip. That production has been outstanding lately, as Tampa Bay has averaged 3.43 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 home games.
The Capitals have been as bad as Tampa has been good, allowing 2.87 even-strength goals and 13.35 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games. What makes this play even better is advanced data suggests that Washington was lucky to “only” surrender that many goals, as their expected goals allowed over those 10 games was 10% higher.
We are attacking the defensive pairing of Sandin/Jensen, who have given up well over four goals and just shy of 18 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road this season. Tampa’s top line should get the most time against this duo, although pivoting to Tampa’s second line or some power play hybrid of the two wouldn’t be terrible as they’ll see Jensen/Sandin for a not-significant amount of time as well.
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR2 - William Nylander, Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi)
This is what I had to say about Nashville on Tuesday, and much of the same holds for Toronto tonight:
“The only thing that is keeping the Predators from being a “blue” stack on the Heat Map is that Adin Hill is the starting goalie for Vegas and he’s been incredible this year. At some point, he’s going to get got, as the Vegas defense hasn’t quite matched his stellar level of play. The biggest threat to his success is the defensive duo of Pietrangelo/Martinez. Opposing offenses get a lot of possession when facing them, their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes sits at a hefty 3.2 at home, and they allow 13.91 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on home ice. It is asking a lot of a goalie to continue to stand on his head every time that duo is on the ice.”
Nashville scored five goals in that game to beat the Knights. The stats haven’t changed, and the regression looks to continue tonight. The line we want to use is Toronto’s second trio, with William Nylander leading the charge. He has 12 goals and assists over his last 7.33 games (as of the first intermission on Thursday night), and is underpriced for his production at $8,300 (tied for his lowest price since November 28).
Both Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi are cheapo depot plays, coming in at a combined $6,800. Add in Timothy Liljegren on defense and you’ve got a four-man stack with an average cost of only $4,750, allowing you to use a second high-end stack to fill out your lineup.
New York Rangers (NYR1 - Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Jimmy Vesey, Adam Fox)
It needs to be noted that Jimmy Vesey is injured and he may miss the game. If that’s the case, then another value play should draw into this lineup. You’re not using the Rangers top line because of Jimmy Vesey anyway; as long as Fox, Kreider, and Zibanejad are playing, then this line should be just fine. That trio averages around 36 DraftKings points per game on the road, which is about five points better than they do at home.
As good as the Rangers can be, the reason we want to use them tonight is because of how poorly the Devils defense has been at home. Over their last 10 games, they’ve allowed 3.12 even-strength goals and 12.88 high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
Nico Daws, the expected goalie for New Jersey tonight, hasn’t helped his own cause, allowing 3.38 goals per game at home on the season. He’s given up three or more goals in five of his last eight games, one of his worst stretches of the season. None of New Jersey’s defensive pairings have been playing well, meaning whoever New York’s top line is skating against, it’s a plus matchup for the offense.
Others in consideration: NJ2, DAL1, OTT1, TB2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Detroit Red Wings (DET3 - Andrew Copp, David Perron, Joe Veleno)
Over their last 10 road games, the Colorado Avalanche have allowed 3.36 even-strength goals and 12.32 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Those are shockingly bad numbers for a Stanley Cup-contending team. Alexandar Georgiev has been a turnstile, allowing three or more goals in 12 of his last 16 starts. He’s been terrible on the road, allowing over three goals per game and saving fewer than 90% of the shots he’s faced.
The defensive pairing we want to attack is Johnson/Byram, who allow a ton of possession and over 14 high-danger chances per game to opposing offenses. They should be matched up against the Red Wings third line, giving us a nice value option to pair with some of our higher-priced stacks.
Others in consideration: PIT2, PIT3, COL2, COL3, SEA2, NYI3
Top Goalies to Target
Linus Ullmark (Boston Bruins)
Jeremy Swayman was a surprise starter on Wednesday night, which means we should get Linus Ullmark in net for the Bruins tonight. He allowed five goals in his last start, but before that he’d allowed more than three goals in a game only once since December 23.
Ullmark has been better on the road this season, scoring 21% more DraftKings points per game away from home. He’s been so strong on the road this year that he hasn’t scored fewer than 11 DraftKings points in a road game since November 27. That’s the kind of floor that we are looking for from an $8,000 cash game goalie, and he has just enough upside to be a viable GPP play if you can afford him.
Others in consideration (GPP): Adin Hill, Thatcher Demko, David Rittich, Joey Daccord, Martin Jones, Jacob Markstrom, Charlie Lindgren
Others in consideration (Cash): Tristan Jarry, Sergei Bobrovsky
