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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Two

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Hello you rabid RotoBallers, and welcome to this little look in at some early power risers and fallers.

This isn’t a blind checkup on who is crushing the ball, but rather people who are making waves with a changed batted-ball profile or need a hot/cold start given some context. You don’t need me to tell you that Khris Davis’ current 97.6 mph exit velocity is second best in the MLB -- his power isn’t rising, simply sustaining.

As with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantrax have even more fantasy baseball advice columns and videos to help improve your teams. Be sure to also check them out!

 

Power Risers

Nicholas Castellanos (3B - DET):

No grains of salt needed here, though! Castellanos, who has a wonderful first name, is currently listed atop Statcast’s early leaderboard for average exit velocity with a 98.4 mph mark. Yeah, it’s only based on 28 batted-ball events but his average generated velocity is also the best by nearly four mph at 12.3 mph. Khris Davis is the name in second place in both of the aforementioned categories. That means something pretty special is happening. When you consider how Castellanos broke out before breaking himself in August, the early-season pop points to good things down the road in 2017.

Francisco Lindor (SS - CLE):

Lindor currently has a 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for seventh on the leaderboard ahead of Arizona’s Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt. While no one expects Lindor to hold around that spot all season long with his nearly 30 percent HR/FB rate, this is quite the splash after posting an 89.3 mph AEV last season. The 23-year-old shortstop appears to be extremely comfortable in the batter’s box right now, and growing into his frame a bit more for some extra pop was always on the table. Enjoy, Lindor owners!

David Peralta (OF - ARI):

Peralta’s .216/268/.405 triple slash isn’t what his owners were hoping for, but the man does have two homers and a 50% hard-hit rate to go with his 95.9 mph AEV. That’s third best in the bigs thus far, and he checked in at 90.2 mph in his injury-marred 2016. Back in his mini-breakout of 2015, however, he was 22nd in the MLB with a 92.6 mph AEV. Looks like he’s feeling healthy, and I'd feel healthy owning him.

Maikel Franco (3B - PHI):

Yet another hard-hitting guy with a zesty 95.1 mph AEV who simply hasn’t been doing much with the pop thus far. His two homers and eight RBI are solid, but the .242 average and .222 BABIP are strange to see given how hard he’s striking the ball. Fangraphs pegs him with only six fly balls thus far, backing his having the lowest average launch angle (7.7 degrees) within the top 10 of AEV thus far -- but then we’d expect the hard-hit balls to be finding holes a bit more readily. Expect the raw percentage of grounders/liners to decrease, but the amount of them finding open field should rise with his average. Mind you, the 25-homer power should stay on course.

Joe Panik (2B - SF):

This is a little cheap because he isn’t a “power gainer” in the traditional sense of power meaning homers. I suppose this would be the only appropriate time to panik this early in April. After slogging through a concussion-affected 2016 that yielded a gross .239 average with a tough 86.6 mph AEV, Panik has returned to form with a 93 mph AEV out of the gate in 2017. And what do you know, but his batting average has rebounded to .323 thus far with a .357 BABIP, close to his .343 and .330 marks from 2014 and 2015. Leave that weird .245 BABIP from 2016 in the rear-view mirror and pick up Panik if you need a .300-hitting middle infielder. This likely still won’t lead to a ton of homers, but his bat is back.

 

Power Fallers

Albert Pujols (1B - LAA):

Pujols only has two extra-base hits in 42 plate appearances thus far, with an uncharacteristically low 88.7 mph AEV holding him back at the moment. For context, Pujols checked in at 92.5 mph last season. We’re not going to jump ship on the age-37 slugger yet, though, as this is either just early-season noise or he’s dealing with an injury. The aging curve will claim Pujols one day, but it’s unlikely to be this sharp of a dive.

Justin Turner (3B - LAD):

Turner enjoyed a 91 mph AEV in 2016 as he blasted a career-high 27 homers with 90 RBI for LA, but he just hasn’t found his power stroke yet in 2017. That’s not to say he isn’t hitting, though. His current .355 average is surely acceptable to his fantasy owners, but he doesn’t have any homers through 35 PAs. He does have five doubles, but a slip to an 89.1 mph AEV may explain why a couple of those doubles haven’t turned into tenants of Souvenir City.

Gregory Polanco (OF - PIT):

Polanco has a decent .273 average to go with four runs scored and three steals, but only two doubles and zero homers has yielded an unbecoming .061 ISO out of the starting gate. Realizing that his early-season shoulder injury may not have simply been affecting his throwing abilities -- as Pittsburgh let on -- we could be looking at either a buy-low candidate if you believe he’ll come back, or a “sell low and move on” if you think this kind of thing will nag at him all season and produce a result like his second half from 2016. This writer is in the former camp, but won’t begrudge anyone for avoiding his current 89.8 mph AEV.

Lorenzo Cain (OF - KC):

Cain isn’t appearing on the Statcast leaderboard yet, but where he does show up is on Fangraphs’ soft-contact leaderboard. In fact, he’s at the very top of it with an absurd 47.4 percent mark. The difference between he and some of the other names at the top of that list is that he’s, A) not a slappy speedster like Jarrod Dyson, and B) only has a 10.5% hard-hit rate to “balance it out”. Now, Cain is making value with his four steals and 10-to-7 BB:K ratio, but there’s a reason that he only has one XBH (a double) out of his 10 hits on the season. His .455 BABIP will fall, but will his ISO rise back up toward .150 and give us a 16-homer season like in 2015? Time will tell, but I’d bank on 12.

Marcus Semien (SS - OAK):

So, Cain isn’t alone at that 47.4 percent soft-contact mark. Oakland’s shortstop is actually tied with Cain, though at least he has a 31.6 percent hard-contact rate to offer some early hope outside of just thinking “well, it’s too early to worry” (which is fair, you can definitely still say that!) but Semien’s 5-for-33 start is only being buoyed by four steals. He has yet to homer, which is notable simply because that’s his main draw. He won’t help you in average and the speed likely tops out at around 15 bags. He needs to tap into that 27-homer form from last season if he’s to be a mixed-league option. He should get it together, but he definitely qualifies as an early faller.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter

Sidelined One Week
Daniel Gafford

Aggravates Right-Ankle Injury on Wednesday
Collin Sexton

Injured in Loss to Knicks
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Suffers Calf Injury on Wednesday Night
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Pelle Larsson

Set to Suit Up Versus Dallas
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
P.J. Washington

Ruled Out Against Miami
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
Jalen Smith

to Miss Third Straight Game
Duncan Robinson

Sidelined Again Wednesday
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Daniel Gafford

Set To Play Against Heat
Tre Jones

Ruled Out for Wednesday's Game
LaMelo Ball

Good to Go on Wednesday
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Steven Adams

Cleared To Play Against Kings
Deni Avdija

is Available to Play on Wednesday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Available on Wednesday
Bobby Portis

Available to Play on Wednesday
Lonzo Ball

Upgraded To Available Against Portland
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Cleared for Wednesday's Game
Jamal Murray

Cleared To Play Against Indiana
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available on Wednesday Night
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Ruled Out on Thursday Due to a Personal Matter
Norman Powell

Sidelined Versus Mavericks
Mark Andrews

Agrees to Three-Year Extension With Ravens
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Thursday Night
Omarion Hampton

"on Track and Looking Good" for Week 14
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
Joey Bosa

Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Bryce Young

Panthers Expected to Pick Up Bryce Young's Fifth-Year Option
Deshaun Watson

Browns Opening Practice Window for Deshaun Watson
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Aaron Rodgers

Appears to be Healthier Heading into Week 14
Jalen McMillan

Expected to Have his 21-day Practice Window Opened
Mike Evans

' Practice Window Opened, Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Callahan

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Michael Rasmussen

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Exits Early With Back Problem
Evander Kane

Expected to Be Fine After Skate Cut
Tyler Seguin

Injured Versus Rangers
Sean Monahan

Expected to Play Thursday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
Lian Bichsel

to Sit Out 6-8 Weeks
Viktor Arvidsson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Warren Foegele

Remains Out Tuesday
Valeri Nichushkin

Available After Eight-Game Absence
Gabriel Landeskog

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog Cleared for Tuesday
Tyson Foerster

to Miss 2-3 Months
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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