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Power Risers and Fallers: Week Two

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some early fantasy baseball bats that are either starting hot or cold in the power department.

Hello you rabid RotoBallers, and welcome to this little look in at some early power risers and fallers.

This isn’t a blind checkup on who is crushing the ball, but rather people who are making waves with a changed batted-ball profile or need a hot/cold start given some context. You don’t need me to tell you that Khris Davis’ current 97.6 mph exit velocity is second best in the MLB -- his power isn’t rising, simply sustaining.

As with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantrax have even more fantasy baseball advice columns and videos to help improve your teams. Be sure to also check them out!

 

Power Risers

Nicholas Castellanos (3B - DET):

No grains of salt needed here, though! Castellanos, who has a wonderful first name, is currently listed atop Statcast’s early leaderboard for average exit velocity with a 98.4 mph mark. Yeah, it’s only based on 28 batted-ball events but his average generated velocity is also the best by nearly four mph at 12.3 mph. Khris Davis is the name in second place in both of the aforementioned categories. That means something pretty special is happening. When you consider how Castellanos broke out before breaking himself in August, the early-season pop points to good things down the road in 2017.

Francisco Lindor (SS - CLE):

Lindor currently has a 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for seventh on the leaderboard ahead of Arizona’s Jake Lamb and Paul Goldschmidt. While no one expects Lindor to hold around that spot all season long with his nearly 30 percent HR/FB rate, this is quite the splash after posting an 89.3 mph AEV last season. The 23-year-old shortstop appears to be extremely comfortable in the batter’s box right now, and growing into his frame a bit more for some extra pop was always on the table. Enjoy, Lindor owners!

David Peralta (OF - ARI):

Peralta’s .216/268/.405 triple slash isn’t what his owners were hoping for, but the man does have two homers and a 50% hard-hit rate to go with his 95.9 mph AEV. That’s third best in the bigs thus far, and he checked in at 90.2 mph in his injury-marred 2016. Back in his mini-breakout of 2015, however, he was 22nd in the MLB with a 92.6 mph AEV. Looks like he’s feeling healthy, and I'd feel healthy owning him.

Maikel Franco (3B - PHI):

Yet another hard-hitting guy with a zesty 95.1 mph AEV who simply hasn’t been doing much with the pop thus far. His two homers and eight RBI are solid, but the .242 average and .222 BABIP are strange to see given how hard he’s striking the ball. Fangraphs pegs him with only six fly balls thus far, backing his having the lowest average launch angle (7.7 degrees) within the top 10 of AEV thus far -- but then we’d expect the hard-hit balls to be finding holes a bit more readily. Expect the raw percentage of grounders/liners to decrease, but the amount of them finding open field should rise with his average. Mind you, the 25-homer power should stay on course.

Joe Panik (2B - SF):

This is a little cheap because he isn’t a “power gainer” in the traditional sense of power meaning homers. I suppose this would be the only appropriate time to panik this early in April. After slogging through a concussion-affected 2016 that yielded a gross .239 average with a tough 86.6 mph AEV, Panik has returned to form with a 93 mph AEV out of the gate in 2017. And what do you know, but his batting average has rebounded to .323 thus far with a .357 BABIP, close to his .343 and .330 marks from 2014 and 2015. Leave that weird .245 BABIP from 2016 in the rear-view mirror and pick up Panik if you need a .300-hitting middle infielder. This likely still won’t lead to a ton of homers, but his bat is back.

 

Power Fallers

Albert Pujols (1B - LAA):

Pujols only has two extra-base hits in 42 plate appearances thus far, with an uncharacteristically low 88.7 mph AEV holding him back at the moment. For context, Pujols checked in at 92.5 mph last season. We’re not going to jump ship on the age-37 slugger yet, though, as this is either just early-season noise or he’s dealing with an injury. The aging curve will claim Pujols one day, but it’s unlikely to be this sharp of a dive.

Justin Turner (3B - LAD):

Turner enjoyed a 91 mph AEV in 2016 as he blasted a career-high 27 homers with 90 RBI for LA, but he just hasn’t found his power stroke yet in 2017. That’s not to say he isn’t hitting, though. His current .355 average is surely acceptable to his fantasy owners, but he doesn’t have any homers through 35 PAs. He does have five doubles, but a slip to an 89.1 mph AEV may explain why a couple of those doubles haven’t turned into tenants of Souvenir City.

Gregory Polanco (OF - PIT):

Polanco has a decent .273 average to go with four runs scored and three steals, but only two doubles and zero homers has yielded an unbecoming .061 ISO out of the starting gate. Realizing that his early-season shoulder injury may not have simply been affecting his throwing abilities -- as Pittsburgh let on -- we could be looking at either a buy-low candidate if you believe he’ll come back, or a “sell low and move on” if you think this kind of thing will nag at him all season and produce a result like his second half from 2016. This writer is in the former camp, but won’t begrudge anyone for avoiding his current 89.8 mph AEV.

Lorenzo Cain (OF - KC):

Cain isn’t appearing on the Statcast leaderboard yet, but where he does show up is on Fangraphs’ soft-contact leaderboard. In fact, he’s at the very top of it with an absurd 47.4 percent mark. The difference between he and some of the other names at the top of that list is that he’s, A) not a slappy speedster like Jarrod Dyson, and B) only has a 10.5% hard-hit rate to “balance it out”. Now, Cain is making value with his four steals and 10-to-7 BB:K ratio, but there’s a reason that he only has one XBH (a double) out of his 10 hits on the season. His .455 BABIP will fall, but will his ISO rise back up toward .150 and give us a 16-homer season like in 2015? Time will tell, but I’d bank on 12.

Marcus Semien (SS - OAK):

So, Cain isn’t alone at that 47.4 percent soft-contact mark. Oakland’s shortstop is actually tied with Cain, though at least he has a 31.6 percent hard-contact rate to offer some early hope outside of just thinking “well, it’s too early to worry” (which is fair, you can definitely still say that!) but Semien’s 5-for-33 start is only being buoyed by four steals. He has yet to homer, which is notable simply because that’s his main draw. He won’t help you in average and the speed likely tops out at around 15 bags. He needs to tap into that 27-homer form from last season if he’s to be a mixed-league option. He should get it together, but he definitely qualifies as an early faller.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Giddey

Sidelined on Wednesday
J.K. Dobbins

Not Practicing, IR Move Undecided
Zach Hyman

Nearing Season Debut
Davante Adams

Out Wednesday, Expected to Play in Week 11
Colten Ellis

to Make Second Career Start Wednesday
Adam Erne

to Miss "a Few Weeks"
Paul George

Moving Closer to Return
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Return Wednesday
Joel Embiid

Showing No Structural Issues in Right Knee
Kayshon Boutte

Ruled Out for Thursday Night
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Frank Nazar

Out on Wednesday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Ruled Out For Thursday
Brock Purdy

Working Toward Starting Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Sidelined on Wednesday
Bradley Beal

Will Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery
C.J. Stroud

Not at Practice, Set for Another Missed Game?
J.J. McCarthy

Nursing Hand Injury, Set to Play on Sunday
Romeo Doubs

"Should be Good to Go" on Sunday
Rico Dowdle

Held Out on Wednesday, Should Fantasy Managers be Worried?
Lamar Jackson

has Knee Soreness, "Should be Good" for Week 11
Garrett Wilson

Officially Ruled Out for Thursday Night
Brian Thomas Jr.

Practicing, on Track to Return in Week 11?
Joe Burrow

Looking Sharp at Practice
Isiah Pacheco

Won't Practice on Wednesday
Calvin Ridley

Back at Wednesday's Practice
Chris Godwin

"Making Good Strides" and "Running"
Jaxson Dart

in Concussion Protocol, Won't Start in Week 11
Jameis Winston

Will Start in Week 11 for Giants
Dalton Kincaid

Won't Practice on Wednesday
CFB

Still No Update on Jermod McCoy's Return Timeline
Rhamondre Stevenson

Expected to Reclaim Lead-Back Role When Healthy?
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Out for Week 11 and "Possibly Longer" Due to Appendicitis
Sami Valimaki

Riding Momentum Into Bermuda
Matthieu Pavon

Struggling Through a Rough Season
Taylor Montgomery

Hopes to Get Back on Track at Port Royal
Ben Martin

a Risky Play at Bermuda Championship
Bradley Beal

Out with Hip Soreness
Mark Hubbard

Primed for a Bounce-Back Week in Bermuda
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Questionable with Back Spasms
Dereck Lively II

Questionable with Knee Sprain
Boone Jenner

Exits Win With Upper-Body Injury
Lee Hodges

Searching for a Spark in Bermuda
Bilal Coulibaly

Out with Calf Contusion
Frederik Andersen

Pulled by Concussion Spotter
Valeri Nichushkin

Sustains Lower-Body Injury in Win
Jaylon Tyson

Out with Concussion
Thatcher Demko

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Tobias Harris

Out on Wednesday
Thomas Chabot

Injured Versus Stars
Anthony Stolarz

Exits Early Tuesday
Auston Matthews

Hurt in Tuesday's Loss
Bam Adebayo

Still Out Wednesday
Cooper Flagg

Good to Go Wednesday
Anthony Davis

Questionable to Suit Up Wednesday
Evan Mobley

Resting on Wednesday
Darius Garland

Won't Play on Wednesday
Donovan Mitchell

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Stephen Vogt

Wins Back-to-Back AL Manager of the Year Honors
Milwaukee Brewers

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager of the Year Again
Patrick Fishburn

Looking to Bounce Back in Bermuda
Eric Cole

Carrying Momentum into Bermuda
Isaiah Stewart

Doubtful Versus the Bulls
Ausar Thompson

Out Again on Wednesday
Jalen Duren

Expected to Play on Wednesday Night
Cade Cunningham

Questionable Versus Chicago
Tommy Edman

to Have Ankle Surgery Next Week
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Unlikely to Trade Ketel Marte
Roman Anthony

to Have a Normal Offseason
Jarren Duran

Red Sox Think Jarren Duran Needs a Fresh Start
MacKenzie Gore

Nationals Expected to Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Sahith Theegala

Finishes Tied for 27th at Bank of Utah Championship
Sam Stevens

Finishes Tied for 36th at Baycurrent Classic
Patrick Rodgers

Finishes Tied For Sixth at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke List

Finishes 75th at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied for 63rd at World Wide Technology Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied for 14th at World Wide Technology Championship
Luke Clanton

Finishes Tied for 46th at World Wide Technology Championship
Blades Brown

Finishes Tied for 18th at Korn Ferry Tour Championship
Victor Hedman

Iffy for Wednesday
Ryan McDonagh

to Sit Out "a Few Games"
Charlie McAvoy

Back in Action Tuesday
Scott Laughton

Unavailable Tuesday
Ryan Strome

Won't Play Tuesday
Shayne Gostisbehere

Ready to Face Capitals
Thatcher Demko

Returns to Canucks Crease Tuesday
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Unlikely to Trade Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez

Cubs Could Land Framber Valdez in Free Agency
Jake Walman

Plays Key Role in Comeback Victory
Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Ready to Trade Sandy Alcantara
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks Motivated to Move Ketel Marte
Hunter Greene

Reds to Listen to Offers on Hunter Greene
Paul Skenes

Pirates Won't Trade Paul Skenes
Pete Alonso

Mets Expected to Let Pete Alonso Walk in Free Agency
Kyle Tucker

to Sign With Yankees, Blue Jays, or Dodgers
Drake Baldwin

Named NL Rookie of the Year
Kyle Hendricks

Hanging Up his Cleats After 12 Seasons
Freddy Peralta

Red Sox Linked to Freddy Peralta
Nick Kurtz

Named AL Rookie of the Year
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Emmanuel Clase

Indicted on Gambling Charges, Facing 65 Years in Prison
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory
Aaron Judge

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Award Winners
Randy Brown

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
Matt Schnell

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Co-Main Event
Uros Medic

Aims To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Muslim Salikhov

Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
Chris Padilla

Looks To Remain Unbeaten In The UFC
Ismael Bonfim

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Marco Tulio

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Christian Leroy Duncan

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card

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