January 27, 2025

Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle could be poised for a bounce back in the power department with the modifications to Camden Yards. Over the past two seasons, the Orioles pushed back their left-field wall, hindering power production. However, the team decided to bring the left-field wall back in for the 2025 season, which should bode well for a right-handed power bat like Mountcastle. Last season, the 27-year-old hit just 13 home runs with a .271/.308/.425 line. However, he still generated impressive power metrics under the hood, suggesting he should see positive regression in 2025. Last summer, he generated a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a 36.2% LA sweet spot, which were both well above the average marks. However, he lowered his pull and fly-ball rate to career lows, possibly due to trying to combat the ballpark modifications. Now, with the fences returned to a more favorable position, Mountcastle could see his power production soar if he can return to the 33% and 32% fly ball rates he posted during the 2021 and 2022 campaigns. During those seasons, Mountcastle went deep 33 and 22 times and tallied over 80 RBI in each season, respectively. Seeing that he continued to hit the ball hard despite the poor hitting environment is an encouraging sign for his fantasy stock. However, he carries minimal risk in drafts going off as the No. 19 first baseman and at pick 249.6 on NFBC drafts as he is being drafted at his floor. Fantasy managers should select him confidently in all formats as a corner infielder with high power and RBI upside.--Andy Smith