Michael Kopech 2022 Player Outlook: Sky-High Ceiling Only Prevented by Potential Inning Limit
3 years agoIn 2021, the Chicago White Sox utilized right-hander Michael Kopech out of the bullpen, save for four starts, none of which surpassed five innings. He rewarded the Sox, pitching to a 3.50 ERA with a 2.97 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 36.1 K% and 8.4 BB% across 69.1 IP. Kopech owns a fastball that averaged 97.3 MPH and placed in the 98th percentile for spin rate and also employs a slider that generated whiffs 36% of the time last season. The two pitches helped lead him to a 32.8 Whiff%, good for the 88th percentile. Kopech isn't a ground-ball pitcher — 36.5% of the batted balls in 2021 were on the ground — and will give up his fair share of home runs after a 30th percentile Barrel%. However, he allowed hard contact just 35.7% of the time, en route to a 2.76 xERA. Even if Kopech's walk rate sits around 8%, the combination of strikeouts and weak contact will make up for it. No one questions his talent, as he would provide double-digit wins on the best team in the AL Central. However, there are volume concerns. The expectation is that he'll assume a role in the rotation in 2022, but he may be on an innings limit which will scare some fantasy managers away. Kopech's potential outweighs the risk and if he can start even 23 games (Steamer's projection), he can outperform his ADP of 167.