RADIO
Lucas Giolito 2022 Player Outlook: Consistent Production But Maybe Over Drafted
3 years agoLucas Giolito turned in his third straight season with a sub 3.60 ERA and has 526 strikeouts in 427.2 IP in that time. So it should come as no surprise he's being drafted as an SP1 for 2022 (ADP ~40). But there is slight concern he might fail to live up to those expectations. His 3.53 ERA was solid and his 3.30 xERA suggests he can improve that. But Giolito also had a 3.75 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA, both of which are his highest in the last three seasons and ranked tied-19th and tied-26th respectively (among pitchers with 150+ IP). While his 27.9% K% ranked in the 80th percentile, it was down from previous years; 32.3% in 2019 and 33.7% in 2020. Giolito's 7.2% BB% was his best over a full season and ranked in the 69th percentile so there are signs of improvement somewhere. He also picked up 11 wins and on paper, has a pretty easy division to navigate so double-digit wins should be comfortably achievable. All of his numbers were very good in 2021 and there's no reason not to expect something similar in 2022. But Giolito will need to replicate his 2019 season to provide SP1 value.
