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Jose Berrios 2021 Player Outlook: Expectations Must Be Changed
Every year Jose Berrios is drafted with the expectation of being an SP2, at the very least. Some people ignore the stats and draft him based on name and team (offensively potent Twins). The truth is Berrios had a 4.39 SIERA with a 15% K-BB rate, influenced by an increase in walks (9.6%). He also had a league-average Swinging Strike rate (11.6%). On the positive side, Berrios' strikeout (25%) and Left on Base (77%) rates as well as pitch effectiveness mirror a successful 2018 season. He utilized his curveball to amass strikeouts (38.9%), compared to 27.8% in 2019. Unfortunately, while he increased his four-seam fastball velocity (94.3 mph), the strikeout rate (19%) with the pitch dropped nearly 10% from the year prior. For him to attain the SP2 expectation in 2021, Berrios will have to maintain his velocity and curveball dominance while improving the fastball effectiveness and decreasing the walks. So, please don't rush out assuming the positives portend an assurance of SP2 return. Berrios should only be a choice at an ADP of 90 if your roster can manage his risk. Otherwise, there are other pitchers in that area that might provide more value, depending on roster construction, including Framber Valdez and Kyle Hendricks.
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