RADIO
Jose Berrios 2020 Outlook: More of the Same
5 years agoThe baseball world is still awaiting the ace version of Jose Berrios, but that kind of breakout takes more than just a nasty curveball. That doesn’t mean Berrios isn’t a valuable asset. After all, in 2019 he won 14 games with a 3.68 ERA over 200 1/3 innings in 32 starts. There was some progress, too: His control improved from a 7.7 BB% in 2018 to 6.1% in 2019 and his HR/9 rate stayed steady, an impressive feat going from 2018’s offensive environment into that of 2019. However, his strikeout rate dipped a couple points, from 25.3% to 23.2% of batters faced as his swing-and-miss rate took a slight hit from 11.2% to 10.8% of all pitches. All in all, it added up to little change in the bottom line. Berrios has been remarkably consistent on a year-to-year basis for three seasons now, so you can be reasonably sure of what you are getting with him. Nothing demonstrates that consistency better than his FIP, which has gone from 3.84 to 3.90 to 3.85 since 2017. Ultimately, Berrios’ ADP of 94 is a fair price for what should be another season of roughly 200 IP, double-digit wins, a 3.75 ERA, and a strikeout per inning. Just don’t get carried away by the sweeping curve.
