2 years agoBaltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo had his first full campaign in 2022 and was a productive player. He only hit .221 but mixed in some power with 13 homers and stole an AL-leading 35 bases with 63 runs and 50 RBI over 150 games. But things are a bit murky heading into 2023. Mateo's home runs came with little raw power, considering his 31st-percentile barrel rate, and he hasn't hit enough fly balls to make up for that (24.6% career fly ball rate). The former Yankees prospect also plays at one of the worst parks for right-handed hitters in terms of long balls in Camden Yards. It's hard to imagine a significant change to Mateo's batting average next season after posting an 86.8 MPH average exit velocity. And to make matters worse, he's shown horrible plate discipline during his career, with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate while whiffing too much (30.9%) and chasing too often (35.1%). In all likelihood, Mateo won't steal 35 bases again, even with the 99th-percentile sprint speed he showed this year, especially without everyday playing time. The Orioles project to start top prospect Gunnar Henderson at short most days, with Adam Frazier and Mateo in a platoon. When the 27-year-old does play, he'll be at the bottom of the lineup and will hardly be a factor in run production. Fantasy managers are banking on another season like Mateo had in 2022 but should reconsider drafting him at his 200 ADP.--Spencer Seguin