May 24, 2020

Calling 2020 a make-or-break year for David Johnson is an understatement, given that the city of Houston's eyes are on the running back to foot the bill for the trade that brought him to their door in exchange for DeAndre Hopkins. It's an interesting arranged marriage for both parties, as Johnson struggled in Arizona in adapting to Kliff Kingsbury's offense and simply being able to stay on the field. Now, he'll be replacing Carlos Hyde as the motor to the Texans offense, playing behind an offensive line that exceeded low expectations last season after acquiring Laremy Tunsil, though his subsequent extension marks one of the only major moves they made to strengthen the unit. In the end it's a question less of opportunity, as Johnson is only going to have to stave off Duke Johnson, a rookie, and a sophomore journeyman to keep the role, and more of which Johnson you're getting. The RB has almost no middle, with total yards per scrimmage by season resulting in: 1038, 2118, 90, 1386, 715, a true Jekyll and Hyde assortment. No matter how impressive Johnson's offseason workout videos look, you're left with a similar coin flip for 2020. Per Fantasy Football Calculator, Johnson's gone from sixth round dice roll to your third round pick in PPR, and ultimately an every-week starter in the process. The expectation has reset to be that the RB will return a proper value on his trade, as well as play an essential role in Deshaun Watson's receiving game. These are both assumptions you have to be comfortable with before taking him at his current and draft position. There may be no player with a wider range of outcomes than Johnson this year, and it's hard to feel comfortable with the prospect of taking him anywhere before the fourth round, but I'm hopeful he returns to form to round out the top-10 of his position.--Cliff Clinton - RotoBaller