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Austin Hays 2022 Player Outlook: Power Numbers Overstating Fantasy Value
3 years agoBaltimore Orioles outfielder Austin Hays had a respectable 2021, his first full season in the majors, slashing .256/.308/.461 with 22 HRs, 4 SBs, 73 runs, and 71 RBI over 131 games. He's always had the potential to be a power hitter, and he showed some of that with a 110.3 mph max exit velocity and 9.1 Barrel%. His .286 BABIP was pretty standard, though Statcast gives him just a .245 xBA after displaying 39th-percentile average exit velocity and 37% hard-hit rate. He's shown this meager level of quality of contact throughout his short career, so it might not be smart banking on Hays contributing in average, especially with his moderate speed. Some will point to the 26-year-old's final month when he hit .284 with eight home runs, but that was aided by a 23.5% HR/FB. The outfielder also showed some decline in his plate discipline, striking out 20.2% of the time after back-to-back seasons under 20%. He'll still hit 20 plus home runs just because of his ability to crush the ball on occasion and his home ballpark. At his current ADP of 201, he's a fine pick because of the power upside but won't be a contributor in steals or batting average like Andrew Benintendi, whose ADP is 205 and can also mash 20 home runs.
