RADIO
Aaron Judge 2021 Outlook: High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition
4 years agoNew York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge got hurt again in 2020, logging two separate IL trips with a strained right calf. When on the field, he hit .257/.336/.554 with nine homers over 114 PAs. His .283 BABIP fell well short of his career .352 mark, largely the result of trading line drives (20.3 LD% vs. 27.3 in 2019) for fly balls (40.6 FB% vs. 32.4 in 2019). However, he also saw his average airborne exit velocity decline by six full mph compared to 2019 (93.9 vs. 99.9), while his rate of Brls/BBE was nearly cut in half (19.7% vs. 11.6). The 15.6 BB% Judge authored in 2019 fell to 8.8 last year, though his chase rate only increased slightly (24.6% vs. 25.9). He still strikes out too often (28.1 K% last year, 31.4% career), and his 74.1 Pull% on ground balls (61% career) could make him susceptible to shifts moving forward. There are enough red flags here to be leery of Judge's 54.40 ADP, but he could also win your league if his injuries were behind his disappointing contact quality. He is best seen as a high-risk, high-reward option on draft day.
