Pierre Camus' 10 Bold Predictions for 2020

March 11, 2020

Pierre Camus continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with 10 outside-the-box calls for the 2020 fantasy baseball season.

A wise man once said, "Bold predictions are the lifeblood of fantasy sports analysis." I consider myself pretty wise after all, so there you have it.

You've undoubtedly read my past predictions columns where I declared that all predictions can be considered bold since we dare to presume that we can forecast the future. Projection systems will technically be wrong 99% of the time because they don't nail the exact stat lines of any player. If they are within five homers or 10 points of a batting average projection, they are declared accurate for being in the same ballpark. That may be good enough for draft purposes but in the end, it's still all guesswork. This is the same thing, just without all the fancy spreadsheets and a little more bold!

That said, here are my top-10 bold fantasy baseball predictions for the 2020 season. When you're done, check out my man and fellow Marlins fan (yes, we exist) David Marcillo's Bold Bullpen Predictions, fellow Trinity Tigers alum Eric Samulski's predictions, and fellow Brinson-lover Kyle Bishop's annual installment.

Hansel Robles is a top-five closer

I've seen Robles' name dangled a lot in preseason prediction talk, but usually it's centered around a topic like "Which closer is likely to lose his job first?" I'm not quite sure why. He had historically posted above-average walk rates but dropped it to 5.7% last year alongside a strong 26.5% K-rate. His .254 wOBA ranked in the top-seven percentile.

The development of his changeup, which he barely threw in 2018, is a big step forward as it generated a 36% whiff rate, best among his pitches. The Angels should be better overall with an actual-decent rotation this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him top 40 saves and return great value as the 17th closer going off the draft board.

Bryce Harper wins NL MVP

This logically would make him worth drafting inside the top-20 overall, slightly ahead of his ADP of 23 in NFBC leagues. I know it's just spring training, but so far he is batting .500 with three HR and 11 RBI in 16 at-bats. It seems like he's primed for a huge season to earn that huge contract. Many a player have fallen victim to the pressure of great expectations and it's not as if Philly fans are the most forgiving. Fortunately, he's still in his prime at age 27 and we may not have seen the best he has to offer yet.

A veteran manager like Joe Girardi could bring more focus to the club as well. ATC projections have Harper batting .262 with a roto line of 36/104/100/13. That would essentially be a repeat of last year. This is a man that's batted .330 and .319 in past seasons with as many as 42 homers. I'll go with .292/41/115/108/17 and some MVP hardware as the Phillies win the AL East. And no, I didn't lose a bet to Kyle to write this.

Freddy Peralta is the post-hype sleeper you're looking for

I know I said this about Tim Beckham last year and it didn't pan out so well after the first half... but this time it'll happen! I owned way too many shares of Peralta in 2019, including in TGFBI, only to see him post a 5.29 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and get demoted to the bullpen. The only good news is that he kept his strikeout rate high (30.1%) and his 3.80 SIERA gives hope that he actually performed better than his ratios.

Milwaukee seems pretty confident in him, seeing as how they gave him a five-year contract extension just as spring training was getting underway. He has a chance to win back his rotation spot and deliver on his immense promise. It'd be reassuring to see him develop his changeup or any other type of offspeed pitch, but for now, he remains a solid draft sleeper.

J.P. Crawford and Mauricio Dubon outproduce Danny Santana and Tommy Edman

The lack of big names on this list makes it seem not-so-bold, but once you look at the ADP you might change your mind.

First of all, you see that Santana and Edman are being taken right at the same range, somewhere in the early 12th round of a 12-team league. Dubon and Crawford are usually not drafted unless it's a deeper league and even then, it's as a late-round flier. The dollar amounts are taken from Fangraphs' Auction Calculator. It implies that the first two will return positive value at their respective positions, which could change depending where you slot them, while the other two are massively negative in cumulative value across 5x5 roto categories.

Why do I beg to differ with these projections? As far as Crawford, he could post a 20/15 campaign with a high average as a middle infielder. I'm buying the offseason noise about him gaining muscle, tweaking his swing, and taking on a leadership role in the Mariners' infield. He's always had strong plate discipline, his early spring results are promising and he will bat at the top of the lineup, likely second, to help his counting stats. Dubon should be the regular second baseman in spite of the recent signing of Yolmer Sanchez. He's not yet proven but was a well-regarded prospect in the Brewers' system and hit .301 with 20 HR and 10 SB in Triple-A.

I won't expound too much as far as Santana and Edman since we've got plenty of other predictions to explain, but I will simply say that I'm not convinced Tommy Edman gets regular playing time as a utility guy and won't show the same level of power. Santana's power outburst came out of nowhere and I'm not betting on a repeat. He's inherently more draftable than these others because he plays every position on the diamond but catcher, so I'm not avoiding him outright. I'm just not drafting him inside my top 150 or Edman inside the top 200.

Marcell Ozuna returns top-15 OF value

This could be interpreted as a shameless plug for one of the latest episodes of the WPC+ podcast, where Nicklaus Gaut and I share our Must-Have Players for 2020. Poster boy Marcell Ozuna is one that we both agree will far outproduce his current ADP. There's not much to say here because naturally, you're going to click that link and listen to our explanation. Moving on...

Rowdy Tellez slugs 30 HR and drives in 80+ runs

No, I'm not just prorating last year's numbers over a full season's worth of at-bats. Nearly every projection system has Tellez logging fewer AB this year because it's presumed that Travis Shaw will be the semi-regular first baseman. Shaw fuddled with his mechanics last year and managed to raise his launch angle while significantly lowering his power output and batting average simultaneously.

He said he was going back to his old ways this year, which seems logical, but his early spring results haven't reflected it. In fact, he may be completely broken at this point. He's batting .217 with 13 K in 23 AB. This comes on the heels of a season where he hit .157 with a 33% strikeout rate.

Tellez offers better power as Shaw (before he done got broke) and at age 25, should be getting better. He was in the top-10 percentile in Barrel rate last year even with a disappointing overall slash line of .227/.293/.449. Reportedly, he replaced 15 pounds of fat with muscle this offseason and also shortened his swing to generate more contact. If it all goes according to his plan, Tellez could be a fixture in the middle of a lineup that has a ton of young talent, including a guy named Vlad.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a top-20 fantasy player

I didn't get everything right last year but one thing I did know was that expectations for Vladito were flat-out ridiculous before Opening Day. He was a fifth-round pick on average even though we didn't know how long it would take him to adjust to the bigs and the pressure of living up to his name.

Plus, the rest of the Blue Jays lineup was suspect at best. Now, he's still a fifth-round pick on average and that is simply too low. Everyone is all over the White Sox as this year's breakout offense, rightfully so, but I think the blue birds up north are being overlooked. Individually, we know that Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio can be breakout performers in the all-legacy infield (Tellez aside). But if you add up all the parts, it could make for a dynamic offense with Guerrero as the centerpiece in the cleanup spot.

His overall batting line was lackluster, but in the second half he started to come around. Guerrero hit .293/.349/.452 with seven HR and 44 RBI in 239 at-bats after the All-Star break. His plate discipline is already outstanding, so the only thing left is for him to raise that launch angle and stop hitting the ball on the ground half the time so he can barrel the ball up more frequently. It's not often we see an 80 overall rating on a prospect. Stop overreacting to last year's inflated expectations and jump on him this year before he becomes a perennial first-round pick.

Robbie Ray is a top-10 fantasy SP

He might earn this just through attrition alone, as it's unclear whether there will even be 10 starting pitchers who throw enough innings to become qualifiers. Ray is sort of the Joey Gallo of pitchers and the closest thing you can come to a three-true-outcomes player on the mound. He's posted a strikeout rate above 30% and a walk rate above 10% for three straight seasons while also allowing 30 HR in 2019, most of them no-doubters.

Ray isn't great for ratios, but we bite the bullet in the middle rounds in order to pile up strikeouts. This year, he's making some adjustments in order to retain more consistency on his delivery and the early results are promising. I am willing to take Ray earlier than needed as my SP2, even if just for the fact that I DON'T TRUST ANY STARTING PITCHER RIGHT NOW!!!

Mitch Garver crash lands this year, isn't a top-10 catcher

If you were to sum up Garver's 2019 season with a gif, it would be this:

All the other Twins were bashing homers like crazy, so why not him too? Garver was coming off a rookie season where, in nine fewer at-bats, he hit a total of seven home runs. His previous high was 16 HR in a full year of Single-A ball. I'm not saying the power was a complete fluke, but a 29% HR/FB rate does seem slightly inflated. Plus, the signing of Josh Donaldson and possible re-emergence of Miguel Sano could push Garver further down the lineup to the seventh spot (where catchers belong!). I currently have him as my eighth catcher in preseason draft rankings but wouldn't be at all surprised if young backstops Will Smith, Sean Murphy and Danny Jansen outperform him.

This is the year Lewis Brinson breaks out

All the stars are aligning and signs point to Sweet Lew Brinny finally coming through. Well, at the very least, he's hitting well in spring so far and it's not as if there is crazy depth or competition in the Marlins outfield. The organization would love nothing more than to reap some sort of benefit from the player who was supposed to be the key piece of the Christian Yelich deal, seeing as how Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto already have key roles on the Major League squad and Monte Harrison is knocking on the door. It would just be sad if Harrison wins an outfield job ahead of Brinson.

His stats over the first 655 at-bats of his Major League career, roughly a full season's worth, are as bad as you could imagine for a former top-20 prospect. I don't mean top 20 in the organization either, I mean top-20 in all of the minors. Brinson has a career strikeout rate of 30% and walk rate of 5% with a .183 batting average supported by his .219 xBA. He's not compensating by providing power either - he didn't hit a single homer in 226 AB last year. These are all really good reasons to avoid Brinson at all costs in 2020. So why is he going to break out? Just because. Third time's a charm!

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