RADIO
Tiger Woods impressed today by ending his round with a birdie-streak. Max Homa's cement around his plaque of the "officially arrived as an elite golfer" club, is all but dry, scorching through his first round at -7 and co-leading the event with Keith Mitchell who continues to be one of the best drivers of the ball on tour. Let's take a look at the showdown slate for round 2!
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Highest Owned Golfers
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
From a weather perspective, there may be an opportunity to call the weatherman's bluff, as the below screenshot may see a lot of lineups getting stacked in the afternoon. A site that I pay a monthly subscription to, along with a few others, suggest this is an incorrect projection. AM waves will maybe come with an ownership discount tomorrow.
If we look at how the two nines set up, the best theoretical chance to manufacture a 3-birdie-streak would be to roster golfers going off hole #10 tomorrow to take advantage of #17 and #1 being two of the easiest holes that fall in succession. But this is only the case for those going off #10. Nate Lashely shot -2 but scored the same as most -4 golfers thanks to birdies on 17, 18, and 1 gaining him a 3-birdie-streak and a bonus 5 points.
Round 2 Power Rankings
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for R2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate. For your reference the green "T Times" are going off #10.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based off the $4K Short Game $1 20 Entry Max contest, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Rory McIlroy will be around 21% ownership tomorrow, which should be lower than Jon Rahm with both of them projected to have very similar R2 showdown output. I am happy to take a gamble that Rahm finally has an off day in the short game department, after gaining +3.5 stroke chipping and putting today.
Scottie Scheffler is going to be the golfer we lean on most as he will provide the most leverage in the $10k range and grades out as the top golfer for tomorrow's slate. He should see single digit ownership and is absolutely capable of leading the slate in points scored tomorrow, with the added bonus of going off #10 tee after making birdies on 17, 18, and 1 today, but not getting a streak bonus. Let's hope he can do that again tomorrow while shooting a bogey free 64?
$9,000+
Tony Finau is driving us crazy with his short game blunders which seem to pop up every other round now. He lost almost 2 strokes in the short game department and hopefully can rectify that to take advantage of his ball striking which has been really impressive lately, although that was missing in action today too. If he gets neglected enough with the likes of Xander and Homa on either side of him we could get a single-digit owned Finau tomorrow.
Sungjae Im will be another one of the $9k golfers we target who will land up being close to 10% than 20% owned tomorrow. He grades out as the 16th best target for R2 showdown and should provide decent leverage with Max Homa looking like he is flirting with 30% tomorrow.
Patrick Cantlay is somebody we have interest in rostering tomorrow as he finally showed us a little bit of form that has been lacking the last two events. He sits at $9,200 and showed signs of life again, gaining across all four major strokes gained categories. He will be a little chalkier than we like, but this range provides a lot of value and it also has Max Homa so we are still not eating the mega chalk in this range.
$8,000+
Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, and Hideki Matsuyama will be the three names we focus on in this range and can provide us with $9k output at a discounted price and ownership. Hideki (-3.37) and Spieth (-2.38) were horrendous on the greens today and we know that is capable of being an asset for both of them if they see one or two puts drop early in their round.
Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth both stand a chance of missing the cut tomorrow. They could very well mail it in and not show up, OR, they could show some grit and rattling off a bunch of birdies to charge up the leaderboard and break the slate for us at low ownership.
$7,000+
Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Thomas Detry, and J.T. Poston all go off #10 tomorrow and grade out above 2 in my power rankings. Lowry and Detry both have really impressive R2 scoring averages for two golfers prices at $7,300 and $7,200 respectively. If either of them can get it going tomorrow, a five-birdie round would be amazing output for their price range.
Taylor Montgomery has made birdies in bunches, until recently. Since the Farmers Insurance Monty has been a little off, but he has explosive power off the tee and when running hot with the flatstick, can be the best putter in the field, gaining 2.5 strokes on the greens today. He lost 5 strokes on approach and around the greens which is not ideal.
$6,000+
Lanto Griffin and Patton Kizzire are my two favorite targets in the $6k range and are both priced lower than $6,600. Lanto goes off #10 and averages +0.92 strokes in round 2 since the 2022 season. Cheap, high-upside golfers are our favorite.
Kurt Kitayama and Scott Stallings will be two additional targets in the $6k range.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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