RADIO
For those of you who have been loyally supporting Breaking $100, my very first article for RotoBaller, thank you! Your support has been rewarded with a slew of additional articles heading your way each week. This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership. Adding finishing positions to the equation makes it even more fun.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top-20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top-five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top-10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 3 Ownership Analysis
Round 3 Highest Ownership
We dodged the Scottie bullet but were suckered into a bad decision chasing Tom Kim's steam. Collin was 20% less owned than Scottie, probably because the public believed his putter, which gained the most it had gained all week, was going to fizzle. Maybe it does tomorrow, which would be ideal for the showdown.
Round 3 DraftKings Points
Max Homa showed us what he is capable of today and was the best play in Round 3 at $8,000 and 10%. In my Breaking $100 article, there is an 80-1 Max Homa future at the Masters, which is looking rather tasty if he continues to play this way. Collin, Sungjae, and Horschel were the next tier of top scorers in Round 3. Patrick Cantlay was a few putts away from having a Homa-like day and we had a lot of Cantlay in yesterday's article.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
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The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most-owned tomorrow based off of their position on the leaderboard entering Round 4. Collin Morikawa is probably going to come in at 60%+ ownership. He enters R4 with a SIX-shot lead and can win this event by shooting 70 tomorrow. A six-shot lead can result in Collin likely coasting through the back 9 if he makes a few early birdies on the front. Everybody behind him has no reason to leave any birdie on the course and that is where we are going to start our lineups. There is also a decent chance he is slightly tenser on Sunday and that magical putter disappears.
$10,000: Jon Rahm is the king of storming up a Sunday leaderboard, will be significantly less owned than Scheffler and is only one shot behind him in T5.
$9,000:
$8,000:
$7,000: Hideki Matsuyama is not far behind Rahm when it comes to doing his thing on a Sunday and is super cheap. Max and JJ should make him a little less owned in this price range.
$6,000:
The Pivot People
Nobody is in the top-10. A slate breaker will be found in one of these names. Outside the top-10, unanchored by any significant ownership, these nimble non-contenders can still have the round of the day and sneak into the top-five, which is how we take down a GPP.
$10,000: Justin Thomas has had one or two bad holes a round that has kept him from going nuclear. Tomorrow, we get a bogey-free 63?
$9,000: Tony Finau will be in most of my lineups, with that Round 4 scoring that has Jon Rahm jealous. Patrick Cantlay was a great play for us in Round 3 and hopefully, he can continue that momentum into the final round.
$8,000: Will Zalatoris is due for one of those spike rounds where he can play freely and confidently after knocking the rust off in his first three rounds in some time.
$7,000: Tom Hoge & Seamus Power are going to be cheap and low-owned tomorrow, both with immense upside when playing their best.
$6,000: Scott Stallings & JT Poston are two guys in the $6K range that the model thinks are not as bad as Luke List and Ryan Brehm.
The Leverage Lads
Sprinkling one or two of these guys into our lineups especially at low salary may be the way we want to attack these players. All of these golfers will be considered for my 20-entry player pool as they are well outside of the top-10.
$10,000:
$9,000: A $9,100 Viktor Hovland is pushing a power ranking just shy of 2 and will be 5% owned.
$8,000: Cameron Young is an $800 cheaper version of Hovland who has a ridiculous upside and will be single-figure owned.
$7,000: Sam Burns found his putter in Round 3 and hopefully that ignites his best for Round 4.
$6,000:
Good luck and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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