X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Time to Sell High on Ozzie Albies

Brant Chesser analyzes the meteoric rise of Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies and explains why now is the time for fantasy baseball owners in 2018 redraft leagues to sell high.

Through the first two months of the season, we can start to establish where player performances land in 2018. As we assess our rosters, we can look to fill holes by trading away some overachieving assets.

With Ozzie Albies' (2B, ATL) hot start, he's currently the 18th ranked player in CBS 5x5 mixed-leagues. In CBS 5x5 NL-Only leagues, he's the fourth ranked player and the second-most valuable bat. While keeper-league owners will definitely want to hold Albies, some redraft owners may want to bring back multiple players or another core player in return for Ozzie Albies.

Hard as it may be to stomach, Ozzie Albies may have reached the peak of his performance for 2018, so flipping him now could pay off in the long run. Let's dive into the numbers to find out why.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Power Surge

During March and April, Albies slugged nine HR with an impressive .353 ISO. After posting a 1.41 GB/FB throughout his minor league career, he cut his MLB rate in half to 0.73 GB/FB with a 47.3 FB% during the first five weeks of the season. Where did the added loft come from during April?

(Courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net)

Albies added fly balls from pitches at the belt and those up in the zone as a right-handed hitter. His 42% hard-contact rate, 42.0 FB% vs. LHP, and 17% hr/f vs. LHP backed his five home runs against southpaws. As a RHH, he pulls the ball 39% of the time and hits to the middle part of the field 39% of the time. While it's a small sample, he has has a harder time lifting the ball on the outer-third of the plate as a RHH.

When he turns around to the the left-side, he has nine HR. Like a number of left-handed hitters, he is able to get his hands around quickly to provide loft on pitches down and in.

(Courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net)

He has hit the ball in the air more on pitches down and away as a LHH, but his infield fly-ball rate is 15.3% as a LHH. While he has hit the ball in the air on the outside of the plate as a LHH, his slugging has come from pitches at the middle of the plate and inside.

(Courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net)

His success versus those pitches are worth monitoring, as he starts to see the same pitchers again in 2018. Against RHP, his hard-contact rate (32.4%) is lower, and he pulls 46% of the balls-in-play as a LHH. Overall, his .509 OPS to the opposite field demonstrates his lack of slugging when it takes pitches the other way. When he pulls the ball, Albies has had success (1.211 OPS).

His 33% hard-contact rate on fly balls in April supported the increased power, and his average exit velocity on FB/LD increased from 90.0 MPH in 2017 to 93.7 MPH on FB/LD (89th in MLB) in 2018. After posting an 8% hr/f in 2017, his increased hard contact supported some of the jump to his 21.5% hr/f in March/April.

We can use his hard-contact rate as a selling point to interested owners because his 2018 skills have supported his success.

Well, what happened to his power in May? His 13% hr/f played a role, and he traded fly balls (37%) for line drives (25%) and ground balls (37%). Hitting fewer fly balls and his 1.03 GB/FB in May moving closer to his 1.41 MiLB GB/FB also worked against his power. Through four games in June, the trend (1.17 GB/FB) has continued.

His .988 OPS from March/April slid to .738 OPS in May, and he owned a .790 career-OPS in the minors. He became more of an average player in May, as his wRC+ slid from 163 in April to 100 in May. With his current profile, Albies' owners have already stockpiled more than half of his 2018 HR totals, and Steamer projects 11 HR for the rest of the season.

 

Batting Average and Speed

Coming into the season, owners targeted Albies for his ability to make contact and his speed. His 81.9 Contact% pairs well with his 29.0 (ft/s) sprint speed, which is 42nd in MLB and second at 2B.

A few more reasons to sell-his swings on pitches outside of the zone have increased slightly to 37.3% (O-Swing%) in 2018, and his .293 BA from March/April declined to .264 in May. While Steamer projections have a .270 BA for the rest of the season, fantasy owners have already banked his .320 BA from April.

Even though he crushes two-seam fastballs (1.290 OPS), he has had less success against curveballs, change-ups, and sliders. He has hit sliders on the ground 59% of the time. He has a .638 OPS and 25% K% versus curveballs. Change-ups have him swinging out of the zone 53% of the time with a 10.0 SwStr%, and when he does make contact, it has been on the ground 51% of the time vs. change-ups.

While his speed hasn't slowed down much, his SB totals are lower than some pre-season projections. After stealing 102 bags (with a 78% success rate) in 390 minor-league games, Albies has swiped six SB (75% success rate) in 60 games in 2018. Steamer projects another 12 SB in 2018, which is below what some owners may have expected.

Through 60 G, Albies has posted 8.8 Offensive Batting Runs. If Steamer's projections of a .270, 11 HR, 41 RBI, and 12 SB line is relatively close, that would lead to a disappointing -0.6 Off BRs for the rest of the season.

 

Maximize his Value

Use positive attributes, and there are plenty, of Ozzie Albies' game to play up his value. Although his skills are not suddenly going to tank, it will be difficult to sustain his high-BA and power numbers from April. Yes, he's a keeper-league gem, but we can maximize his value in redraft leagues if we have holes to fill. As he has provided top-20 value in 2018, aim for an elite return for Albies.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
NHL

Mitch Marner Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
Jordan Clarkson

Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Trent Grisham

Exits With Hamstring Tightness
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr., Bucks Reach Agreement on a New Contract
Brooklyn Nets

D'Angelo Russell Heading to Dallas
Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown Jr. Heading Back to Denver
Atlanta Hawks

Clint Capela Returning to Houston
Cameron Johnson

Traded to Denver
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Michael Porter Jr.

Traded to Brooklyn
Matt Chapman

Could Return for Start of Giants Homestand
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Return on Saturday
Yanquiel Fernández

Yanquiel Fernandez Called Up to Majors
Tyler Mahle

Dealing With Rotator-Cuff Strain
Brooklyn Nets

Ziaire Williams Expected to Return to Nets
Austin Wells

to Miss Next Two Games
Tre Mann

Set to Become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Bo Bichette

Scratched With Sore Knee
Cody Martin

to Enter Free Agency
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF