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Spring Training is flying and we're off to the races with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.
It's time to check on those snazzy shortstops and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.
Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning January into February, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.
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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win
Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a data set that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, 7) BA.
We all know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context if necessary. EDV is not some definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it helps sharpen the tools in your kit on draft day. Now, let's move along.
Top Shortstop Tiers
The top shortstops aren’t far off per EDV, with rookie volatility for Witt, injury concerns for Tatis, and solid, yet slightly behind, scores for Bichette and Lindor. Projections are usually incapable of perfectly reflecting the 99th percentile of outcomes, so don't fret much at early negatives. Trea Turner gets close to his 60 HR+SB EDV but 220 R+RBI is a tall ask, with much hinging on how the bottom third of Philadelphia's order develops. And he's protecting his fingers!
Trea Turner is wearing double oven mitts on the bases. Heard this is something he's going to do this season to avoid finger and hand injuries.
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) February 26, 2023
The first bat to pop here is Corey Seager, whose batting average may soar with the eagles in 2023. At this point, I think my two-month-old nephew even mumbled something about how many hits Seager has lost to the shift in recent years. There is still some helium getting pumped in as Opening Day approaches, but a fifth-round pick in 12-teamers is backed by the formula.
Mid-Round Shortstop Tier
We push on with positive scores for Tim Anderson and Xander Bogaerts before hitting a big spike in Wander Franco. The hyped prospect suffered a hamate fracture in his right wrist on July 9, which he rode a 10-game hit streak into. But the real devil was right quad tightness on April 18, which slowly deteriorated and had him struggling by mid-May.
The 21-year-old’s first 28 games yielded a .331/.355/.525 slash line with four homers and three steals. But May 10-30 saw him go 9-for-60 (.150) with zero homers before being placed on the IL. Then a hit in 11-of-12 games before the hamate fracture and a .322/.381/.471 finish across 25 games. I’m banking on a healthy phenom who has weathered a cold streak and adversity hitting 2023 strong.
Wander Franco since coming off the IL (9/9-10/3)
.326/.379/.477
150 wrc+
8.4 bb%
6.3 k%
1.2 bsr
.151 iso
The power is not all the way back yet because of the hamate but it shows what Wander can do when he’s actually healthy.— Gray (@burner_phillips) October 4, 2022
Late-Round Shortstop Tier
Do you dare take one more spin on the Adalberto Mondesi Experience? He may not be 100% by Opening Day as he recovers from a torn ACL, but we’re getting a dynamic player in a hitter-friendly Fenway with bigger bases that should boost steal opportunities. Beyond draft-and-hold formats, he's an excellent snag for the end of your bench as health news rolls out. Or perhaps you ride with the next big rookie to enter hitter-friendlier Coors in Ezequiel Tovar?
Both players boast respective upsides worthy of a bench slot. I don’t love leaning on them as a starter out of the gate, but you want the ceiling stashed. If Mondesi isn’t ready in April or Tovar flops throughout Spring Training and the Rox let him reset in the minors early on, then you’re in trouble! But Tovar, at only 20 years old, crushed Double-A with 13 home runs, 17 steals, and a .318/.386/.545 slash line over 66 games. Capture the ceiling, just don’t ignore the floor. Most systems say he's undervalued:
A few SS projections from THE BAT
Amed Rosario: .276/.314/.392, 10 HR, 72 R, 63 RBI, 13 SB, ADP: 124
Nico Hoerner: .279/.331/.399, 10 HR, 68 R, 57 RBI, 17 SB, ADP: 137
Ezequiel Tovar: .267/.309/.414, 13 HR, 63 R, 55 RBI, 11 SB, ADP: 253
— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) February 1, 2023
Top Shortstops vs. EDV - Full Data Table
We've got players, the cohort they qualify for (if applicable), their HR+SB projection against what EDV demands, same with their R+RBI, a similar batting average score, and notes. Blanks follow those who didn't qualify for a cohort.
| Player | ADP | Cohort | HR+SB v. EDV |
R+RBI v. EDV |
AVG | Notes |
| Trea Turner | 2.68 | BA+HR+SB | -3 | -30 | -0.8 | Top-3 EDV tough to meet, will PHI run enough for 20/35? |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 9.66 | HR+SB | 7 | -24 | -0.8 | Beats EDV at more projectable HR+SB, 200 R+RBI demand is tough |
| Bo Bichette | 15.31 | BA+HR+SB | 1.6 | 10.5 | -0.1 | 690+ PAs in '21 & '22, Bo & TOR want to run more. Buying at the turn |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 17.62 | BA+HR+SB | 17.5 | -11.3 | -2.7 | Riskiest high-round pick, HR+SB projection alone depicts reward |
| Francisco Lindor | 30.93 | HR+SB | -5.4 | 6.7 | -3 | xStats went down but actuals rebounded, OK buy w/ NYM offense |
| Marcus Semien | 34.3 | HR+SB | 7 | 6.6 | -1.3 | Solid get across most categories to anchor shortstop or keystone |
| Corey Seager | 60.07 | HR | -3.7 | 3.2 | 5.7 | Watch rising ADP but still a power buy that'll help some AVG laggards |
| Tommy Edman | 72.58 | SB | 7.5 | 14.9 | 1.4 | 90+ R, 10+ HR, 30+ SB, .260+ AVG in '21 & '22. Buying. |
| Oneil Cruz | 71.6 | HR+SB | 4.3 | -17.2 | -4.5 | Huge tools/ceiling but capped by big whiffs, low R+RBI on PIT |
| Dansby Swanson | 77.75 | HR+SB | -2.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | ADP rising of late but EDV still likes him around pick 75-80 |
| Tim Anderson | 78 | BA+SB | 2.6 | 11 | 1.2 | Strong buy if you can stomach the durability concerns, key leadoff volume |
| Andres Gimenez | 82 | BA+HR+SB | 3.9 | -5 | -3.3 | Scores look low but only BA+HR+SB at 2B, 1 of 6 at SS. |
| Wander Franco | 85.57 | BA+HR+SB | -7.1 | 12 | -2.3 | Final top-cohort until Tovar flier, played very well when at 100%, buying dip |
| Xander Bogaerts | 86.48 | BA+SB | -5.9 | 37.9 | -3.5 | All value tied up in R+RBI in middle of potent SD order, tied to their health |
| Gunnar Henderson | 90.97 | HR+SB | -8.2 | -19.9 | -1.2 | Top-100 ADP for rookies are tough, hitting third would be ideal |
| Willy Adames | 94.8 | HR | 0.3 | 13.4 | -0.8 | Another solid power value, if we get another 6-10 SB that's just cake |
| Jeremy Pena | 111.76 | HR+SB | 0.8 | -3.3 | 3.4 | Rode new toe-tap approach in box to late-season success, invest? |
| Carlos Correa | 115.53 | HR | -7.3 | 21.7 | 7.8 | Lack of high-end power or speed burns but price OK for R+RBI/AVG |
| Amed Rosario | 124.14 | SB | -6.5 | 27.8 | 5.9 | Double-digit HR, SB, and .280+ AVG in last 3 full seasons (no '20, duh) |
| Nico Hoerner | 140.13 | SB | -1.7 | 15.4 | 4 | Pulls flies enough for 10 HR, plus speed, AVG, route to leadoff role |
| Javier Baez | 166.29 | HR+SB | -0.3 | -1.7 | 1 | New Comerica walls may help, haven't gotten 145+ games since 2018 |
| Thairo Estrada | 170.87 | SB | 3.9 | 22.1 | 1.9 | Probably has 2B/SS/OF eligibility with plus projections across the board |
| Jake Cronenworth | 187.29 | Lesser projections, but CI/MI flexibility is nice | ||||
| Bryson Stott | 228.28 | Fatigue got to him as a rookie but modest HR & SB offerings | ||||
| Adalberto Mondesi | 228.57 | SB | 31.2 | -8.6 | -0.8 | Price is right to gamble on upside, Green Monster should help BA. |
| Luis Urias | 232.83 | 2B/3B/SS is nice, but low AVG and SB output limits appeal | ||||
| CJ Abrams | 233.08 | SB | 1 | 16.3 | 1.1 | Big speed and potential to lead off worth a dart, fast-tracked to MLB |
| Jorge Mateo | 241 | SB | 12.8 | -7.1 | 0.7 | Needs to hit to maintain job despite great defense, risky speed prop |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 241.42 | BA+HR+SB | -4.5 | -4.2 | -2.1 | Will COL commit to youngster? Excellent tools for Coors if so |
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