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Running backs dominate the early rounds of fantasy football drafts in 2018, but some won't prove to be worth their ADP. Martin Konstantinov lists five overvalued RBs according to draft value.
As draft season approaches, it is important to remember that each player has a certain value. Every player can become a good selection for fantasy owners if they provide good value relative to their ADP's entering the draft. Therefore, a common strategy among fantasy football players is to draft players who have fallen below their ADP to maximize the value that they receive from those players.
A position that some fantasy owners jump the gun on, however, is running back. Because of the heavier workloads that running backs receive, fantasy owners often overemphasize the value of players at this position.
Let's take a look at some overvalued running backs and try to figure out if they are worth the current value of their ADP or if fantasy owners should hold off on drafting them until they fall to a more reasonable position.
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Five Overvalued Running Backs
Kareem Hunt, KC (1.11)
Currently being drafted at the back of the first round by fantasy owners (according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com) in half-ppr drafts, Kareem Hunt set the world alight with his fantastic rookie season. Stepping in for an injured Spencer Ware, Hunt accumulated 1,327 yards on 272 attempts despite fumbling on his first ever NFL carry. Additionally, Hunt would record 53 receptions for 455 yards and three receiving touchdowns, taking his total touchdown count to 11 on the season. Despite his impressive performance, there are several things to keep in mind entering 2018. First, veteran back Spencer Ware is once again healthy. Ware showed that he was a good NFL running back in 2016 and may steal valuable carries from Hunt throughout the season, threatening his workhorse status. Additionally, with new quarterback Pat Mahomes II and an apparent emphasis on the team's passing game, Hunt may receive fewer carries as the team becomes more pass-heavy as well as more targets with the addition of receiver Sammy Watkins to an offense that already contains Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Hunt will likely have a good 2018 season, but his status as a first round pick is a bit too much to handle.
Kenyan Drake, MIA (4.03)
After serving as a backup to Jay Ajayi in 2016 and much of 2017, Drake was finally handed the starting job after Ajayi was traded to the Eagles and Damien Williams was injured. Drake finished the season with six starts, 133 carries, and 644 rushing yards - a truly impressive stat-line given his sample size. Additionally, with 239 receiving yards and four total touchdowns, Drake looks to be ready for a breakout third season atop the Dolphins depth chart in 2018. However, with the presence of veteran Frank Gore and the lackluster nature of the Dolphins offense and defense as a whole, Drake may not be in line for the huge touch numbers that we expect. Head coach Adam Gase has been a bit erratic in his running back choices, and Drake may not end up being worth the early round price that drafters are currently paying for his talents.
Dion Lewis, TEN (5.07)
Nicknamed the slippery fish, Dion Lewis had a career year with the Patriots in 2017 that saw him reach over 890 rushing yards, surpass the 200 receiving yards barrier, and score nine touchdowns to go with it. Lewis demonstrated why he is a solid NFL-caliber running back and earned himself a multi-year deal with the Tennessee Titans. While this change of scenery may be a good thing for the 27-year-old back, Lewis will have to compete with presumed workhorse Derrick Henry for the starting job. Henry has waited for two seasons to become the team's starting running back, and his ability to be a workhorse will allocate the big back a ton of touches on the year. This makes Lewis's role murky at best and definitely is a warning sign for his 5th round draft price. There are more locked-in options all around him, making this selection a bit of a reach.
Ronald Jones II, TB (7.06)
Despite being drafted with one of the first selections of the second round in the 2018 NFL Draft, Ronald Jones II is struggling to carve a significant role for himself in the team's offense during preseason. Head coach Dirk Koetter has been very impressed by the play of veteran Peyton Barber, a career back up who finally has a chance to perform well after being given the starting job. It looks as if Jones will start the season as the clear backup to Barber, which makes his 7th round price tag a bit too much to swallow. Apparently, Jones has had some trouble with the playbook and his preseason performances have certainly been lackluster. So far, Jones has 18 yards on 18 carries - definitely not a stat fantasy owners will want to see. Keep an eye out for Jones with a mid-season pickup, but definitely do not draft him with one of your mid-round selections.
Tarik Cohen, CHI (8.01)
With the arrival of new head coach Matt Nagy, Tarik Cohen is being described as the team's new Tyreek Hill, a player Nagy helped develop during his time with the Chiefs. Cohen certainly flashed his big-play ability during his rookie season, with over 700 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns (including a return touchdown). Clearly, Cohen is a versatile weapon that an offensive-minded coach like Nagy will thoroughly enjoy deploying across the field. However, Nagy also likes starting running back Jordan Howard, and has described him as a three-down back. This will significantly cut into Cohen's expected workload. Although he may put up big numbers when he plays, it will be tough to predict when those big days will come around, making Cohen more worthy of a late-round lottery ticket than a mid-round selection.
