RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Friday, August 7th, 2020 at 2:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/7
- New York Islanders (-130) vs. Florida Panthers (+110)
- Nashville Predators (-135) vs. Arizona Coyotes (+115)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-155) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+135)
- Edmonton Oilers (-135) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (+115)
- Toronto Maple Leafs () vs. Columbus Blue Jackets ()
- Vancouver Canucks (EVEN) vs. Minnesota Wild (-120)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Minnesota | 12 | 22 | 26 | 15 | 21 |
| Vancouver | 26 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 17 |
| Edmonton | 13 | 9 | 22 | 24 | 10 |
| Toronto | 17 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 10.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 21 | 26 | 17 | 21 | 17.5 |
| Chicago | 19 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 16.75 |
| Montreal | 20 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 20.25 |
| Nashville | 13 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 6.75 |
| Arizona | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 8.75 |
| NY Islanders | 21 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 16.25 |
| Florida | 23 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 15.5 |
| Columbus | 16 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 19.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents so for example, the Islanders GA and SA will get matched with the Panthers GF and SF.
| Matchups | PP % Rank | Opp PK % |
| New York Islanders | 28 | 20 |
| Florida Panthers | 29 | 9 |
| Nashville Predators | 20 | 7 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 23 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 14 | 22 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 31 | 11 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 2 | 17 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 25 | 1 |
| Toronto | 16 | 16 |
| Columbus | 30 | 12 |
| Vancouver | 5 | 20 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 10 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Sidney Crosby ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD)
This game is a must-win for Crosby and the Penguins. They lost in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night and look to bounce back against the Canadiens. Crosby has scored a point in each game so far this series but he might need to have a multi-point effort if the Penguins wanted to force a game five in the series. He is averaging a little over three shots per game in this series and is averaging 14 DK points per game as well so he is certainly viable in all formats. Did I forget to mention that they are playing an elimination game on his birthday!?!? There's no way Crosby will not score in a must-win game on his special day.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Connor McDavid ($8,600 DK/ $8,700 FD)
- Auston Matthews ($8,400 DK/ $8,500 FD)
- Leon Draisaitl ($7,800 DK/ $8,400 FD)
- Evgeni Malkin($6,800 DK/ $7,700 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Patrick Kane ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)
Patty Kane has notched four points in just three games played against Edmonton so far during the postseason. He is top five for forwards when it comes to total ice-time per game with over 22 minutes per game and has taken a total of 14 shots during that three-game span. With the shot volume up and ice-time being high, there's no reason to not consider Kane in all formats.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Kevin Fiala ($6,700/ $7,000 FD)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6,800/ $7,200 FD)
- Mitch Marner ($6,800 / $7,400 FD)
- Filip Forsberg ($5,800/ $7,700 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Ryan Ellis ($5,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
Ellis is a "Roman Josi Lite" in the sense that he is very similar to Josi on how he racks up points and is always engaged on the offensive end. One positive thing about Ellis is that he carries a very solid floor and is always good for two to three blocked shots and two to three shots on goals. Those peripheral stats really add up which is what we like to see from a cash game perspective. He has only had one point throughout this series against Arizona but he is averaging over 11 DK points per game during the past three games played against the Coyotes.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Roman Josi ($5,200/ $7,100 FD)
- Oscar Klefbom ($6,200 DK/ $5,500 FD)
- Jared Spurgeon ($5,700 DK/ $5,400 FD)
- Darnell Nurse ($5,200/ $4,200 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Frederik Andersen (Probable) ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)
Since this game is on a back to back, there could be a chance where Andersen gets a night's rest depending on the result of Thursday's game. Andersen has been on fire this series and if he can limit Columbus to under two goals, the Maple Leafs have a legitimate chance of winning this game. The Blue Jackets have played well defensively and Korpisalo has been in fire as well so only time will tell what game four has in store for us. With how hot both goaltenders have played, either of them is viable with Andersen getting a slight lean for cash games (if he is in the net of course).
Other Goalie Options: Jacob Markstrom ($7,800 DK/ $7,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Christian Dvorak ($4,300 DK/ $4,500 FD)
- Ryan Johansen ($4,400 DK/ $5,200 FD)
- Kirby Dach ($3,500 DK/ $4,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Viktor Arvidsson ($4,500 DK/ $5,900 FD)
- Clayton Keller ($4,100 DK/ $5,400 FD)
- Andreas Athanasiou ($3,600 DK/ $3,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Mattias Ekholm ($4,100 DK/ $4,100 FD)
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson($4,200 DK/ $5,000 FD)
- Matt Dumba ($4,400/ $4,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Darcy Kuemper ($7,400 DK/ $7,800 FD)
- Alex Stalock ($7,600 DK/ $7,300 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Edmonton Oilers (L2)/ Chicago Blackhawks (L1,L2) - This game has been by far the best game stacking option when it comes to the NHL postseason. Both teams struggle on the defensive end but have enough firepower to light up the scoreboard on any given night. When looking at the teams, Edmonton's second line stands out based on the line matching. Since Chicago is at home, they will most likely focus their top defensive line on the McDavid line which leaves Draisaitl and company with a better matchup. On the flip side, both of Chicago's top lines look to be in play as they both posted positive line stats against Edmonton in this most recent game.
Nashville Predators (L1, L3)
The Preds have been led by their top line of Johansen, Arvidsson, and Forsberg this series and they have been the best line throughout the postseason so far. Forsberg has produced four goals and leads the Predators with six points in just three games played and even with the home line matching advantage going in favor of Arizona, they still found a way to produce. Arizona has been stingy at times on defense partly due to the great goaltending play of Darcy Kuemper and if the Coyotes can limit this top line for Nashville, they might be able to close out this series. This is a prime hedge spot where if you are making multiple lines, you should look to stack Nashville but then make a line featuring Kuemper and an Arizona stack.
Pittsburgh Penguins (L2, L1, PP1)
The Penguins have their backs against the wall in this series so they will need a strong offensive performance if they want to force a game five. This series has produced the strongest corsi number so far throughout the postseason which tells us they have played with the best pace while also combining for 25 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time. The top two lines of the Penguins looked really strong as they combined for 19 scoring chances while only allowing 7 scoring chances. With this slate featuring other high scoring teams, the Penguins could go a tad overlooked in tournaments making them a viable tournament stack.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: Arizona (L1), Toronto (L1, PP1), CBJ (L1,L2 if Andersen is not in net)
