NHL DFS Power Play for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft: DFS Value Plays, Goalies Matrix, Stacks (1/14)

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Thursday, January 14th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/14

Boston Bruins (-140) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5O
New York Islanders (-105) vs. New York Rangers (-105)- 5.5U
Washington Capitals (-130) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
Carolina Hurricanes (-190) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 6O
Calgary Flames (-105) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-105)- 5.5U
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Nashville Predators (-120)- 5.5U
San Jose Sharks vs. Arizona Coyotes (-115)- 5.5O
Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers (-120)- 5.5U
Anaheim Ducks vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-210) - 5.5O
Minnesota Wild (-115) vs. LA Kings - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Goalie Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Boston	1	24	23	10	13.25
New Jersey	28	6	7	21	16.75
New York Islanders	9	17	10	28	18
New York Rangers	23	2	27	19	15.75
Washington	18	23	30	11	20.5
Buffalo	22	18	11	30	20.25
Carolina	11	29	21	3	18
Detroit	31	5	1	31	15
Calgary	16	8	12	15	14
Winnipeg	10	7	15	17	11
Columbus	3	25	4	8	12.25
Nashville	19	15	16	5	11.5
San Jose	27	22	4	26	17.5
Arizona	3	8	9	14	10.25
Vancouver	19	4	24	18	17
Edmonton	15	12	17	28	17.25
Anaheim	25	11	3	27	14
Vegas	13	29	19	1	18
Minnesota	23	21	20	25	12.5
LA	14	26	2	4	21.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
Boston	2	7
New Jersey	21	3
New York Islanders	24	23
New York Rangers	7	15
Washington	17	29
Buffalo	20	6
Carolina	8	30
Detroit	29	4
Calgary	12	22
Winnipeg	15	8
Columbus	27	28
Nashville	24	12
San Jose	23	5
Arizona	18	1
Vancouver	4	2
Edmonton	1	16
Anaheim	30	27
Vegas	9	26
Minnesota	10	23
LA	26	25

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc). When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

Center Picks

Mika Zibanejad ($8,400 DK/ $8,000 FD) - A great spend up option on this slate for the center position is Mika Zibanejad. Zibanejad was second on the team with 75 total points but led the Rangers with 41 goals scored. Last season, Zibanejad registered five total points against the Islanders (2 goals, 3 assists) with four of those points coming on the powerplay. Zibanejad did contract COVID-19 a few weeks back but has been spotted at practice so make sure he is skating in warmups before you press the full-on lock button.
William Karlsson ($6,100 DK/ $5,200 FD) - Wild Bill makes for a great value play over on FD and with the Golden Knights being a top team on tonight's slate, he looks to be a no brainer for your cash game lineups. Karlsson was set to produce back-to-back 50+point seasons before the shutdown occurred and notched 10 points during 20 playoff games. The matchup against the Ducks is pretty favorable as he has accrued six points over his last five games that he has played against them (one game was a hat trick).
Ryan Johansen ($4,000 DK/ $5,500 FD) - The Nashville Predators' top line was a bit of a disappointment last season but really kicked it into high gear once the playoffs began. They had a 93.76 CF/60 in 42 minutes of ice-time while also sporting 45.46 SC/60 in that same timeframe. Johansen really stepped up as he was able to notch three points during their series against the Coyotes and hopefully, this playoff form could carry over to the 2021 regular season. Johansen skates on the top line and top power-play line and if he is able to get a point or two, he could easily exceed value.

Other centers to consider: McDavid, Aho, Couture, Trocheck, Domi, Bonino, Stephenson

Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin ($7,600 DK/ $8,500 FD) - One of the greatest pure goal scorers in Ovechkin is back on the slate and he always makes for a great play in all formats. Ovechkin has scored nine points in the last games played against Buffalo with seven of those points being goals. Ovi is not afraid to fire at will as he has recorded at least five shots in five out of those eight games played.
Mark Stone ($6,000 DK/ $7,400 FD) - If you like narratives, this will be the first game where Vegas will officially have a captain....and that captain is Mark Stone. Stone was second on the team with 63 points last season and led the Golden Knights with 42 assists. His line is extremely lethal as they generated 40.53 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time last season and get a great matchup against Anaheim.
Zach Parise ($4,200 DK/ $6,100 FD) - The pricepoint on Parise is just too low to ignore. Parise had the third most shots taken on the Wild last season and actually led Minnesota with 25 goals scored. Parise is skating on the top line and top power-play line so he could get a small increase when it comes to his time on ice per game.

Other wings to consider: Marchand, Panarin, Marchessault, Atkinson, Hoglander, Studnicka

Defenseman Picks

Roman Josi ($6,900 DK/ $7,100 FD) - If spending up at the defenseman position, it is hard to not hit the lock button on Josi. Josi led the Predators in total points (65), time on ice (25:46), and total shots taken (260). Josi had the second-most points scored by defensemen in the league and was also tied for second with 16 goals scored by a defenseman. Josi carries such a high floor that makes him truly viable in all formats.
Erik Karlsson ($4,800 DK/ $5,400 FD) - This is a big year for EK65 as he looks to be fully healthy for the Sharks. Karlsson is one of the best skating defensemen in the league and should see plenty of ice-time as he is being placed on the top power-play unit alongside Brent Burns. Karlsson led the Sharks with 34 assists and averaged 24 minutes of ice-time and now that he is locked in on the top power-play unit and top defensive unit, more scoring opportunities are bound to come.
Alexander Edler ($5,900 DK/ $4,300 FD) - The Canucks defensemen is just too cheap to consider rostering over on FD. Edler is a shot-blocking machine as he racked up 162 blocked shots all last season. Edler registered 33 points last season with most of those coming from assists so Edler should serve as a cheaper FD option for cash lines if you're trying to spend up elsewhere.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Hughes, Subban, Fowler, Leddy, DeAngelo

Goalie Picks

Robin Lehner ($8,500 DK/ $ FD) - Lehner was traded to the Golden Knights late last season and looked to be a completely different goalie. In his three regular-season appearances with Vegas, Lehner recorded three wins while only allowing five total goals and racking up a .940 save percentage. In the playoffs, Lehner continued to dominate as he went 9-7 while posting a 1.99 goals allowed average and a .917 save percentage. Vegas signed Lehner to a five-year deal so he looks to be the main goalie moving forward for the Knights.
Connor Hellebuyck ($7,800 DK/ $ FD) - Hellebuyck is one of the best pure goalies in the league and the Jets look to be fully healthy and ready to go this season. Hellebuyck is coming off of a solid season where he went 31-21-5 with a 2.57 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage. Hellebuyck pitched six total shutouts and faced the Flames one-time last season in which he allowed one goal on 30 total shots and recorded a win.
Cam Talbot ($7,900 DK/ $ FD) - Talbot was signed by the Wild in the off-season to a three-year deal and is taking over the main goaltending duties after Devin Dubnyk left for San Jose. Talbot saw limited action lasts season as he only made 22 total starts and went 12-10 while posting a 2.63 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage. The matchup against the Kings looks to be a good one as they took the fourth-most shots but registered the second-lowest goals scored per game average (2.53).

Note: If you do roster a goalie in cash games, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Chicago is my hedge team for opening night as their top line is underpriced and opens up salary relief for a more expensive stack to pair with.

Favorite Line Stacks

CAR 1: Niederreiter, Aho, Teravainen- Carolina has been known to switch their lines up throughout the season but it looks like they are going back to their old faithful lineup with Nino, Aho, and Teuvo. This line has skated together quite a bit in the past and is one of the better puck possession lines in the league. They posted a 65 CF/60 rating while having a 2.42 xGF rating. Nino is a better defensive player than an offensive player so he could be swapped out for Dougie Hamilton which would get you top-line correlation with a defenseman while also getting the top power-play correlation as well.
VGK 1: Pacioretty, Stephenson, Stone- The top Vegas line played really well together last year and should be able to handle the Ducks with ease. This top-line had an xGF/60 of 3.91 and generated 18.25 HDCF/60 in 223:31 of ice-time. The Ducks allowed 3.15 goals per game and had the highest expected goal allowed per game rate at 2.58.
BOS 1: Marchand, Bergeron, Studnicka- Boston will be without their stud scorer in David Pastrnak for several weeks as he is recovering from hip surgery so Marchand and Bergeron will need to pick up the scoring slack in his absence. Studnicka will slide into Pastrnaks place and skate alongside Bergeron and Marchand which will only help his overall fantasy value. The Bergeron and Marchand pairing played well together last season as they posted a 65 CF/60, 2.59 xGF/60, and 12.14 HDCF/60.
NYR PP: Last year when the Rangers took on the Islanders, both teams combined to score 26 goals in four games. The Rangers outscored the Islanders 15 to 9 and with them having the home line advantage, it should only favor the top two lines for the Rangers. If you choose to stack the Rangers power play, you will get pieces of both top lines and with the Islanders being a middle of the pack penalty kill team, the Rangers could light the lamp several times on the power play.

Other Stacks to consider: VGK 2, WSH 1, SJ 1, BOS 2, MIN 2, WPG 1, CAR1 PP