NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/18): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, February 18th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/18

- New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins (-235) - 5.5U
- New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-130) - 5.5O
- New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) - 5.5O
- Nashville Predators (-105) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-115) - 5.5U
- Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-305) - 6.5O
- Buffalo Sabres vs. Washington Capitals (-170) - 6.5U
- San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues (-200) - 5.5O
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Arizona Coyotes (-160) - 5.5U
- Minnesota Wild (-130) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
New Jersey	9	7	7	18	8.75
Boston	3	31	14	5	14.75
Rangers	8	22	6	9	22.25
Philadelphia	22	3	28	31	10
Islanders	5	20	7	17	15.25
Pittsburgh	28	27	18	18	19.75
Nashville	27	16	4	14	20
Columbus	24	8	13	24	12.5
Ottawa	31	12	5	3	23.5
Toronto	14	25	30	21	11.75
Buffalo	21	13	11	10	21.5
Washington	29	5	28	24	13.75
San Jose	20	14	3	4	17.5
St. Louis	16	9	16	20	8
Tampa Bay	4	25	31	11	20
Dallas	9	27	23	28	19.5
Los Angeles	25	4	18	23	16.75
Arizona	15	11	9	29	16.75
Anaheim	6	18	1	26	12
Minnesota	13	17	10	14	14.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
New Jersey	26	5
Boston	7	30
Rangers	26	27
Philadelphia	16	11
Islanders	9	26
Pittsburgh	21	23
Nashville	22	8
Columbus	23	29
Ottawa	24	31
Toronto	2	7
Buffalo	5	13
Washington	1	25
San Jose	28	5
St. Louis	25	4
Tampa Bay	10	17
Dallas	3	22
Los Angeles	13	18
Arizona	15	12
Anaheim	31	9
Minnesota	30	1

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD) - Matthews continues to be one of the best overall DFS hockey players in the league and even at his very high price point, he is still certainly in play. Matthews has registered a point in every single game this season and carries the best floor out of all players on this slate.
Jack Roslovic, CBJ ($5,300 DK / $5,100 FD) - The top-line center for Columbus continues to shine as he has produced a point in three out of his last four games played. While his price is still creeping up on both sites, the upside is still there as he skates alongside great scoring wingers in Laine and Atkinson.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI ($4,400 DK / $4,500 FD) - JGP has really turned it up as he has scored five goals over his last four games played. During that same stretch, Pageau is averaging close to four shots on goal per game and should face a bad Penguins defense that is allowing 3.6 goals per game.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Eichel, Kopitar, Crosby, Kuznetsov, Eriksson Ek, Malkin, Hertl, Stenlund, Nelson, Stepan, Boyd

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - Ovechkin was held off of the score sheet on Tuesday night but he looks to be in a great rebound spot versus Buffalo as they are allowing over three goals per game to opposing teams. Prior to Tuesday night's game, Ovechkin registered six points in a three-game span and was really heating up from an individual standpoint.
Jordan Eberle, NYI ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) - Eberle continues to have a green light to shoot the puck as he is featured as the primary goal scorer on the Islanders second line. He is averaging three shots on goal over his last three games played and could see a ton of ice time against a bad Penguins second line.
Boone Jenner, CBJ ($3,700 DK / $4,100 FD) - Sometimes it is tough to find high floor plays at the winger position but Boone Jenner looks to be that type of play on this slate. Jenner racks up three to four peripheral stats per game and has registered a point in two of his last three games played.

Other wings to consider: Pastrnak, Marner, Marchand, Hall, Laine, Panarin, Guentzel, Atkinson, JVR, Parise, Hoffman, Vrana, Ritchie, Thornton, Stuetzle, Bailey, Skinner, Donato, Aston-Reese, Zucker, Kapanen

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

John Carlson, WSH ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) - Carlson has been doing a good job racking up peripherals throughout the season but has gone over two weeks without scoring a goal. Luckily for Carlson, he is in a great spot as he has generated a goal and three assists against the Sabres so far this season and they have allowed five goals this season to opposing defenseman.
Kris Letang, PIT ($4,900 DK / $5,900 FD) - The pricing on Letang is still down so it makes it very difficult not to consider him. Letang has scored a point in three out of his last four games and has done a good job racking up blocked shots as he has been averaging two blocked shots per game over his last three games played. Letang has found some success against the Islanders earlier this season as he has generated two assists in just two games against New York.
Justin Schultz, WSH ($4,000 DK / $4,200 FD) - Schultz has really been involved on the offensive end for the Capitals as he has generated five points over his last four games. Schultz is averaging close to four shots on goal per game over his last four games played and is seeing over 17 minutes of ice time during that stretch.

Other defensemen to consider: Josi, Burns, Rielly, Ellis, Doughty, Chabot, Fox, Jones, Muzzin, Pulock, Subban, Brodie, Reilly, Leddy, Mayfield, Vatanen, Butcher

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Jordan Binnington, STL ($8,300 DK / $7,500 FD) - Binnington is having another solid season as he is 7-3-2 with a 2.37 goals allowed average and a .918 save percentage. Binnington is 1-0-1 with a 2.4 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage against the Sharks so far this season and he looks to be in very good form as he has only allowed two combined goals over his last two games played. The Sharks have solid individual talent but struggle to find consistency on the offensive end as they are only generating 2.4 goals per game.
Vitek Vanecek, WSH ($8,100 DK / $7,600 FD) - The Caps have a very good tandem in net with Samsonov and Vanecek and both could be viable options on this slate against the Sabres. Vanecek has seen more ice time due to Samsonov and is coming off of a strong performance against the Penguins as he held Pittsburgh to just one goal on 27 total shots. On the season, Vanecek is 6-3-2 with a 3.06 goals allowed average and a .906 save percentage. The Sabres continue to struggle offensively as they are only scoring 2.4 goals per game but are taking 30.3 shots per game so the save upside could be there for whoever is in net for Washington.
Elvis Merzlikins, CBJ ($7,800 DK / $7,300 FD) - Merzlikins looks to be starting in net for the Blue Jackets on Thursday night against the Preds. Merzlikins has faced Columbus once earlier this season and got rocked as he allowed five goals but to be fair, that was his first start of the season and he has done much better since. On the year, Merzlikins is 2-2-1 with a 2.95 goals allowed average and a .96 save percentage. Nashville has struggled most of the year to generate any type of offense as they are scoring only 2.3 goals per game but are taking over 30 total shots per game.

Other goalies to consider: Rask, Hart, Kahkonen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Thornton/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - Toronto and Ottawa are playing again on this slate and I know this is getting a bit repetitive but you have to consider the top line yet again for the Leafs. The Matthews and Marner tandem is sporting a 2.45 expected goals for rate while generating 33.84 scoring chances and 11.05 high danger opportunities against the Sens this season and when you add Joe Thornton into the mix, the expected goals for number jumps up to 2.79 per 60 minutes of ice time. If you decide to do a single entry tournament line, it is not necessary to go immediately to Toronto's top line but if you do decide to play cash games, you must consider at least getting exposure to Auston Matthews.
WSH 1/ PP
- Ovechkin/ Kuznetsov/ Oshie (Carlson, d-men add on)
  - The Caps have switched up their lines a bit and will roll Kuznetsov and Oshie with Ovechkin on the top line while Backstrom and Wilson will join Vrana down on the second line. We no longer see a fully correlated top forward line and top power-play line so this allows us to get a tad creative if looking to stack the Caps. While the new-look top line hasn't played much together this season, they do have a 3.8 expected goals for rate while generating 31 scoring chances and 21.11 high danger opportunities in just 11 minutes of ice time. Ovechkin and Oshie skate on the top power-play unit with Carlson and they could make a very good three-man stack if wanting to fully correlate a line that is featured on the top line and top power-play line.
CBJ 1
- Laine/ Roslovic/ Atkinson (Jones, d-men add on)
  - So far, the Blue Jackets top line has looked solid with the new additions of Roslovic and Laine. On the season, they're posting a 2.15 expected goal for rate while averaging 20.43 scoring chances for and 10.21 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. While it's not the strongest of numbers right now, they will only continue to grow and get better the more ice time they see with one another. The matchup against Nashville is one that can be exploited as the Preds are conceding 3.5 goals per game and are allowing over 30 shots per game to opposing teams.