RADIO
Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Falcons vs. Panthers TNF game in Week 8. Ellis Johnson analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.
We had the pleasure of watching tremendous matchups for both fantasy and reality in Week seven. With a multitude of tight games (Pittsburgh-Tennessee, Seattle-Arizona, Cleveland-Cincinnati) and individual fantasy explosions (Devante Adams, Tyler Lockett), last week had it all.
Week eight starts with one of the best Thursday Night Matchups of the season for fantasy purposes. The 1-6 Atlanta Falcons are traveling to Charlotte, North Carolina to take on the 3-4 Panthers in what should be another great divisional game. Both teams will be looking to rebound from last week where the Falcons found another innovative way to lose and the Panthers suffered a late field goal loss to the Saints.
One thing is for sure, there will be lots of fantasy points in this game. With two of the most powerful offenses going against two of the worst defenses in the league, this has the ingredients for wide-spread fantasy success for players on both teams. Which options specifically? It’s time we got into that. Here is your Week Eight Thursday Night Football RotoBaller Preview.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers, 8:20 PM ET
Notable Injuries:
- Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - Knee - Questionable
- Julio Jones (WR, ATL) - Hip - Questionable
- Alex Mack (C, ATL) - Knee - Questionable
- Eli Apple (CB, CAR) - Hamstring - Questionable
- Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR) - Ankle - OUT
Must Starts
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR): The well known conservative quarterback has been doing exactly what people were expecting going into the season. Currently the QB-17 on the season, Steady Teddy has been very solid, but not amazing, for fantasy purposes. Bridgewater has only two games on the season over 20 fantasy points which probably has you wondering why he is a “must start”. Well, the answer is the Falcon’s defense and the fact that Bridgewater has the fifth-most passing yards in the league. Atlanta has given up over 300 passing yards per game as well as the second-most all-purpose yards per game in the league. The best part about Atlanta’s defense is that they have a powerful offense to keep them afloat. Because of this, Matt Ryan and company will force Bridgewater to throw on their non-existent secondary for all four quarters. Just to make the situation better, Bridgewater has four games with over 250 yards passing and three games with over 25 yards rushing. Although Bridgewater does not post top-five upside, he is almost guaranteed to finish in the top 12. He should be started in all two-QB leagues while also being a very reliable option for any team in bye-week troubles.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL): Julio Jones is back. That’s about all the justification you need to plug Ryan into your starting line-up. Do you need more? He is surprisingly leading the league in passing yards this season. In four full games with Jones on the field, Ryan is averaging 358 passing yards and 2.75 passing touchdowns. Ryan has been getting it done when his favorite target is on the field. The downside? Carolina is a tougher matchup than most expected at the start of the season. Considering many had them in contention for the worst defense in the league going into the season, the fact they have allowed the 10th least passing yards per game while only giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns a game is surely a pleasant surprise to even their most die-hard fans. With that being said, the Falcon’s defense will give up points, setting the table for Ryan to have to throw for the game’s duration. I would start Ryan with full confidence this week, he has the top five upside you look for in a QB1.
Todd Gurley II (RB, ATL): Ever since his record-breaking 2018 season, Gurley has struggled to regain the confidence of fantasy managers. Initially, this was a result of his arthritis, however, this season he is averaging 17 rushing attempts per game which is sixth highest in the league. Last week he received 83% of the running back touches on the team which suggests his arthritis should not be a factor when considering his fantasy potential. What should be a factor is that he is currently the RB-eight on the season (Half PPR) and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the league and the sixth-most rushing yards at the position. Gurley has been getting it DONE. To make it better, each week Carolina is giving up an average of 125 rushing yards and nearly a touchdown and a half on the ground. Finally, if all of that isn’t enough for you to trust him as a surefire start this week, Gurley has been getting more usage in the passing game lately, averaging three receptions and 23 yards over the last three games. Do yourself a favor and remove the arthritis narrative from your head and get back on the Gurley train. He is a top-end RB-one this week and deserves to be played with full confidence. I’m calling for the Pie Shop* to be open for him this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR): As of this writing McCaffery is on track to play in week eight. If he does, Mike Davis can no longer be started. However, if he is out, continue to roll with Davis as he is still the RB-11 on the season after virtually not playing the first game and a half and putting up a stinker last week. In either case, the Carolina back should be started as the matchup doesn’t get much better (unless they were able to play against their own defense). Although the Falcons are averaging a surprisingly low amount of rushing yards against (92.4), they are giving up the second-most passing yards per game. Both these backs are pass-catching specialists and will get the work done in the air if not on the ground. With the high over-under, this would be the perfect game for CMC to come back and remind the world why he is the best back in football.
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey has officially been ruled out for this game.
Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones (WR, ATL): I’m going to combine these two receivers as both have the same reasons to feast in this matchup. Ridley is currently the WR-one in Half PPR, and Jones’ is 13th in points per game. Outside of the fact that the Panthers are averaging the 10th fewest passing yards against, there is nothing bad to say about these receivers. The yardage totals have been there for both players, as Jones has three games over 90 yards and Ridley has 5 games over 100 yards. Thanks to their defense, the passing volume will continue to be there. Ridley has a higher upside with his RedZone usage, but both must be started as WR-one’s in this matchup.
Robby Anderson and DJ Moore (WR, CAR): Much like Jones and Ridley above, Anderson and Moore should be in all line-ups. Sitting as the WR-9 and 13 respectively, both should be viewed as high-end WR-two’s/low-end WR-one’s in this matchup. Anderson has surprisingly emerged as the WR-one on this team, setting the pace in receptions, yards, and targets. However, DJ Moore has been emerging from his “quiet” start the last three weeks, posting 93 yards in each matchup and a combined three touchdowns in that stretch. Moore has shown his ability to be a big-play threat and the talented receiver we expected in the offseason. Once again, Atlanta’s defense (or lack of) is the key to Carolina’s fantasy production. There will be plenty of yards to go around in what should be a shoot-out. Additionally, I’m doubling down on my Pie Shop* calls this week, and saying that Robby Anderson will score his second of the year this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Solid Options
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL): With over 50 receiving yards in each of the last two weeks, Hurst is making himself into an every-week start at the position. Sitting as the TE-eight, and holding the fourth-most receiving yards at the position, you could do a lot worse. The Panthers have been middle of the road at defending the position, and therefore, I’m not projecting a monster week for Hurst. However, you should lock him in for 50+ yards and a good chance to find the endzone, making him a solid TE-one option this week.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL): I’ll be honest, I don’t love starting Gage this week. Although he has been a productive WR-three for this team, he has proven to be somewhat inconsistent for fantasy. He has over 65 yards in each of his last two games making him a solid option. However, the week before that he had 2 receptions for 16 yards. He is a fine flex player this week in what should be a high scoring game, but I would look elsewhere in most redraft leagues.
Consider Sitting
Ian Thomas (TE, CAR): “Finally Thomas has the opportunity without Greg Olsen and has been absolutely lighting it up”, was what I thought I was going to say this season. Instead, the opposite has been the case for the third-year tight end. With all the opportunity available, and Check-Down Teddy distributing the rock, the situation couldn’t be much better for Thomas. Unfortunately, with this opportunity, he has only brought in seven receptions on the year. Even with the great matchup, he doesn’t deserve to be in this article, since no one should be playing or rostering him in any league.
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR): Four receptions, 38.5 yards, and 11 rushing yards are what Samuel is averaging this season. He always has the potential to make a big play, however, he has no floor. I’ll leave the decision with you, but remember, you can’t win your week on Thursday night but you can definitely lose it.
The Panthers have been a better team than a lot of people want to give them credit for. After losing a close game in New Orleans last week, they will look to rebound at home in a very winnable matchup. The Falcons will keep this game close in what should be a high-scoring Thursday night game, however, I’m confident the Falcons will find a way to lose again.
Here are my picks for Week 8: CAR -2.5 ? (3-4), Over 49.5 (2-5)
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