Talent Wasted: Rookies in Bad Landing Spots for Redraft

May 8, 2020

Dom Petrillo identifies NFL rookies at each offensive skill position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who could disappoint for fantasy football purposes in 2020 based on landing spot.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CeeDee Lamb, D'Andre Swift, Jerry Jeudy. We will not be talking about these players here. Those players can be contributors no matter the situation due to talent. Instead, we will focus on the rookies who landed in bad situations for fantasy football and may not be able to recover. Of course, things can change in the blink of an eye in the NFL. A bad team could suddenly surge or a player can be unexpectedly traded. For now, however, these are not the best situations to start their careers.

All rookies come into the league hoping, praying they are the next Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson. Most will not achieve these lofty goals. Some due to injury, others due to the team situation surrounding them.

With this in mind, let us now take a look at some of the rookies who start their careers behind the eight-ball.

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

The mobility is there. So is the cannon arm. What else is there to worry about? For the 2020 season, there is Tyrod Taylor.

Of course, Herbert could pull a Baker Mayfield and come in early, never to relinquish the job. Unlike in Cleveland, Herbert is not coming in to be a savior. He is coming into a situation where the team knows what they want to do. They also have a coach with a limited time-frame to make a Super Bowl run with the roster that's in place.

Justin Herbert may be more talented than Taylor but the veteran gives the Chargers the best chance to win this season. Tyrod Taylor will never throw for 4,615 yards like Philip Rivers did in 2019. He is also not going to throw 20 INT like Rivers did. He will scramble out of the pocket and make plays, something Herbert is capable of but may need to sit and learn to do effectively as a pro.

This one pains me to admit because I really like Herbert as a player. But for 2020 he is at best a YOLO late-round draft pick.

When it comes to dynasty leagues, he is also tricky to gauge. The Chargers should belong to Herbert in 2021. What will be left on the team is the biggest question. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry are all free agents after this season. Not to mention the defense which could lose Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III. After going all in for this season, the team may be demolished and rebuilt starting next season. This may not be good for a QB to function. With Austin Ekeler the only weapon remaining in the fold, Los Angeles may turn to a new philosophy as a more balanced run-pass team as opposed to letting the QB fling it all over the field.

His future value varies greatly on the format. If you are in a Superflex or two-QB league, he is still in consideration at the tail-end of round one. If you are in a single-QB format, Herbert should remain on the board much longer than he did in the NFL Draft. Perhaps even into the third-round.

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)

As with all the others on this list, the wasteland determination is based mainly on redraft leagues. This is the same for the 6’4 220-pound receiver from Clemson.

He lands in a spot where he will be able to connect and grow with another rookie in Joe Burrow. But he also comes into a team with a duo of good receivers in front of him in A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. If Green can remain healthy for the 2020 season, he is the clear number one receiver in Cincinnati. He also plays the same position as the rookie, meaning Higgins will learn, but it may be more so from the sideline than on the field.

Before being injured most of the past two seasons, Green had five straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards. He was one of the best WRs in the NFL and he hopes to be again as he tries to get a new contract somewhere.

Higgins hurt himself in the process by not working out at the Combine. He luckily was one of the few to get his Pro Day in, but the results there also left a lot to be desired. His 4.56 40-yard dash on his home field (which some say tends to be 39 yards) did not improve his chances of going in round one.

If he had ended up in San Francisco or even Green Bay, he would be an immediate stud. In this offense, it will take a season or two before he gets his shot to excel.

When it comes to 2020 drafts, Higgins is a late-round flier at best and not draft-worthy at worst. In dynasty leagues, he is clearly behind a number of other receivers including Jeudy, Lamb and Michael Pittman Jr. He should likely be taken as a double-digit pick in the first-round or better yet, the early second-round. The potential is there and the upside with Joe Burrow is clear. Just be patient with him and the rebuilding franchise.

Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)

How can the number one receiver off the draft board be in a bad spot? Well, because he was drafted by the Raiders. New city, same philosophy of speed kills.

Ruggs is more than just speed. Unlike someone such as Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ruggs can actually catch the ball. In three seasons at Alabama, the speedy Ruggs caught 98 passes and turned 24 of them into a TD. He also raised his yards per catch from 11.6 as a freshman up to 18.7 during his junior season.

At 5’11 and 190 pounds, he is not the biggest guy. But he is also not what you would consider extremely small. His hands are incredible, and he has one trait you cannot teach. 4.27 speed. There's a reason Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden fell in love with him and some fantasy owners will too:

So why no love for him in fantasy? Two reasons: Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota.

I have all the faith in the world of Ruggs' ability. He is more physical than other receivers his size. He was the alpha in the Crimson Tide WR room according to Jerry Jeudy. So, the determination and attitude are there. But the lack of any deep touch from either QB who could potentially start is frightening. The Raiders in 2019 had the same deep threat in Tyrell Williams. In 14 games, he accounted for 42 receptions, 651 yards and six touchdowns. These are not great numbers for someone making $11 million per season let alone a first-round draft pick. He is also not going anywhere which means these reps at the Z position will be split between both Ruggs and Williams.

Darren Waller had a breakout season in 2019 and along with returning first-year stars Hunter Renfrow and Josh Jacobs, Ruggs will find it difficult to get the volume needed to be a true fantasy contributor.

If you are drafting him in redraft leagues, he should not be taken any higher than the eighth round. Do not get caught up in the rookie hype. It usually does not end well when it comes to receivers. In dynasty leagues, it's a different story because the talent is clear so he can be considered a late first-round pick. As with redraft leagues, do not expect an elite first season but do not throw in the towel with him either.

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)

On the bright side, he does not need to move far from South Bend to Chicago. This may in fact be the only positive about the tight end being drafted at number 43 by the Bears.

Not only does he come into a situation in which the quarterback is undetermined, but whichever one they choose is not great. Yes, Nick Foles has had some wonderful seasons and a memorable postseason run. His 27-TD, two-INT season back in 2013 was great. Leading the Eagles to an improbable win against the Patriots in Super Bowl LII was even better. Unfortunately, those were not the only two seasons he played. The others were not nearly as good and Foles couldn't beat out rookie Gardner Minshew in Jacksonville last year.

The other option is Mitchell Trubisky, who cannot get out of his own way. Coming into the league after starting only one season at UNC, Trubisky has not progressed in any manner. This hurts the development of all his weapons.

Finally, and most importantly. Kmet joins a TE room in Chicago whose only rival in terms of numbers is a Jon Gruden QB room. Actually, I think they may be over the limit for people allowed in a confined space at the moment, so be careful. If he ever does get on the field over the likes of Jimmy Graham, Demetrius Harris, Adam Shaheen, and others, he still has the quarterback situation to deal with.

A good thing about the TE position is most of them take two or even three seasons to come into their own. By this time, both Trubisky and Foles will likely be gone. Maybe they'll be replaced with the likes of Justin Fields in the 2021 draft. Either way, the pain should subside soon. As long as he can prove himself as the best of the bunch for the Bears, the dynasty future could be alright. He should be a consideration late in the second or third round of rookie drafts.

As for 2020? Kmet is not worth drafting and will not likely be a priority waiver add at any point in the season either.

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