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John dives into a list no NFL players wants to be on: the biggest NFL Draft busts of the past five seasons. Read RotoBaller's analysis of the worst NFL Draft picks of the 2020s.
We're now five years into the 2020s, and it's time to put on the clear glasses and look to good old hindsight to tell us who some of the worst picks in the NFL Draft have been. Some things don't change -- however; there are some new players from the 2024 edition of one of the league's biggest spectacles that have crashed and burned so far.
There's always the chance that players will ascend to at least solid status for some stretches of time, so it's not like they have no hope of ever turning it around. In fact, Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is a perfect example of this. He was featured on last year's list but has ascended out of that ignominy by turning it around in the back half of this season.
But some players still remain, and especially for the undisputed No. 1 player on this list, it would be incredibly surprising to see some of them make it off. Some NFL careers are very long, so you can never count them out, but we'd be shocked. So, let's break down the 10 biggest busts in the last five NFL Drafts. Note -- we'll give preference to listing players who performed poorly over those with off-the-field issues.
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10. Evan Neal - 2022 NFL Draft, No. 7 Overall Pick
The New York Giants will kick off this list with one of their worst NFL Draft picks in recent memory. They've had a poor offensive line for years -- in fact, it was simply historically bad in 2023. And a large part of that was due to the drafting of Neal. The former seventh-overall pick and second offensive lineman taken two seasons ago has played more like a seventh-round pick.
At least Evan Neal is a funny to watch type of bust
— . (@J0nesToChina) December 22, 2024
If "Turnstile" were a position in the league, Neal would likely be listed as one. There hasn't been much redeeming about his career so far. He constantly whiffs on blocks, gets dominated seemingly by the majority of players he faces, and was a big part in the failed experiment of former Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. Neal has been a weekly comedy act for those who enjoy poor football.
Evan Neal in space is legit a bull in a china shop scenario
This is why he needs to play inside, he's terrible in space #Giants100 pic.twitter.com/maSP3RIiEJ
— Zain (@ThisIsNotZain) December 30, 2024
Those unfamiliar with the sport might watch him play and wonder how he ever made his way onto an NFL roster. He's been comically bad at multiple aspects of OL play, such as pass-blocking and run-blocking. That's about all he needs to do, anyway. There are endless examples of his incompetence on film, and we won't break them all down.
But he's been a big part of the reason the Giants have had one of the worst offensive lines in recent memory.
9. Kenny Pickett - 2022 NFL Draft, No. 20 Overall Pick
The first quarterback taken off the board in 2022 showed NFL fans exactly why that year's draft class was considered so weak. Pickett was put in a position to succeed, but his unwillingness to push the ball down the field and overall conservative play hampered his ability to produce. And while many who follow the Steelers insist it wasn't his fault, there are always players who defend QBs no matter what happens.
Kenny Pickett INT. Rough start for the Steelers pic.twitter.com/44b6TDmtG0
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) September 10, 2023
He repeatedly struggled to read NFL defenses and made a variety of bone-headed plays as a result. No doubt Steelers fans don't miss the images of players streaking open only to be ignored or missed by the former Pittsburgh Panther (that's a college team). Worst of all was his inability to generate scoring plays.
Kenny Pickett in 14 career starts:
9 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 75.6 passer rating, and a 22.0 QBR in 2023.
The kid looks like a major swing and miss. pic.twitter.com/pOjblCUm03
— Dave Robicheaux 🛜 (@UncleRobicheaux) September 19, 2023
You simply have to be more productive than this if you want to succeed as a quarterback. Pickett led one of the worst offenses in the NFL in 2023, and while his former offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, deserves some of the blame for his terrible schemes, there's only so much you can do with a QB who can't elevate the players around him.
8. Alex Leatherwood - 2021 NFL Draft, No. 17 Overall Pick
Former offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood was former Las Vegas Raiders general manager Mike Mayock's magnum opus. Mayock was shockingly hired by Las Vegas to be their general manager in 2019 and promptly helped the team select bust after bust. But his greatest (worst) work was with the offensive tackle out of Alabama.
The Alex Leatherwood Charger fans are hyping up??
— CJ (@Th3GhostRaider) May 31, 2024
There isn't much more that needs to be said than that he was released after just one season of playing. That's a shockingly bad outcome for a first-round draft pick, especially as an offensive lineman. The trenches are massively important position groups for NFL teams, and even bad players had long careers playing OL (see Neal above).
We got Alex Leatherwood instead lmao https://t.co/IvsqOFspmc
— Raider 🅿️eyton (@PeytonRaider) October 21, 2024
Mayock made a habit of reaching for players he believed would fit the "Raider Way." Anyone who's followed the NFL closely over the past decade knows that the Raider way is to consistently underperform, make terrible draft picks, have circuses at head coach and GM, and lose plenty of games. That's not to say they haven't had good seasons, but they tend to follow those up with more stinkers.
Mayock's tendency to whiff big-time led to him being fired after the 2021 season. Leatherwood played a big part in that. They let the Minnesota Vikings draft offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw, whose career has gone in the opposite direction.
7. Caleb Williams - 2024 NFL Draft, No. 1 Overall Pick
There are many who insist that you cannot evaluate rookies and that first-year NFL players are akin to children taking their first snaps in the sport of football. But no one is above criticism in the league, and you have to compare players to those around him. If we're allowed to praise well-performing freshman players, we're allowed to evaluate them because that's evaluation.
You can have Caleb Williams. Give me Jayden Daniels. He’s doing more advanced stuff. https://t.co/SJr8p4TXfQ pic.twitter.com/tlJ1c2uipG
— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) January 13, 2025
For starters, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels just won a playoff game, Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix at least made the playoffs, and Atlanta Falcons signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. won the starting job and impressed in limited action. Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy (knee) was injured before the season but could be poised to take over the starting job.
And New England Patriots QB Drake Maye played very well, considering that there was literally zero talent around him. He's made the most of one of the worst situations possible in the league -- having the worst offensive line and pass-catching corps in the NFL is a hard thing to overcome.
CALEB WILLIAMS WITH A HORRIBLE INT 🤯 pic.twitter.com/4zZ738QEaY
— NFL Memes (@NFLHateMemes) January 5, 2025
Those guys are all rookies. They just happen to have been chosen after Williams. Social media is regularly slammed with fans insisting that Williams is actually good, pointing to his positive TD:INT ratio, and blaming the offensive line for all his woes, as they did for years with Justin Fields. But every OL evaluation company and tool shows that the Bears' OL is simply fine.
Offensive Line composite rankings:
Bills #5
Lions #10
Ravens #15
Bengals #28 https://t.co/seUlSh9Jy4 pic.twitter.com/0VCQHRklQn— 𝗕𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗖𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 (@BengalsCaptain) December 13, 2024
It's been this way for years. The quarterback's play style has a huge impact on what people think about OL play because QBs have the luxury of sitting back in the pocket and waiting for sacks to come or just running themselves straight into pressure. And that's what CW does. Much of his stats have been during games that were never in reach.
It is simply misleading to put together highlight reels -- yes, Williams can make big plays and has great arm strength, but pretending that signal-callers aren't responsible for their bad plays and blaming others for them is simply not a good way to evaluate them.
QB time to throw vs pressure to sack rate this year. Caleb Williams is not beating the hero ball allegations. pic.twitter.com/1BadSWgPYI
— Pranav Rajaram (@_pranavrajaram) January 4, 2025
Williams was also one of the worst downfield throwers in the past few years. His accuracy on passes that traveled 15 or more yards downfield was horrendous, and it showed up on the tape. But you don't even need to watch that, because now statistics like that are tracked.
worst catchable throw rate on deep passes in @fantasyptsdata history:
1. Caleb Williams, 2024 (32.8%)
2. Mac Jones, 2023 (35.8%)
3. Zach Wilson, 2022 (39.4%)Rome Odunze ranks 12th in air yards (1,217) but just 49th in catchable air yards (508) https://t.co/BCf47288FJ
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 17, 2024
There's always the possibility that he could turn it around. And if Chicago hires a great coach, it's reasonable to see that happening. But after a 5-12 season with a great group of WRs and a solid offensive line (according to professional evaluation tools, not fans), the finger of blame has to point somewhere.
6. Quentin Johnston - 2023 NFL Draft, No. 21 Overall Pick
After two seasons, it's now even clearer that Johnston was a horrible pick in 2023. One may point to the box score and see that he was targeted 91 times and caught 55 passes for 711 yards and eight touchdowns. That's pretty good, right? No. NFL fans are fickle and love to selectively blame certain players for offensive woes while selectively praising others despite what the tape tells us. And the tape does not lie.
quentin johnston stat lines in the 2 biggest games of his life
ridiculously bad player pic.twitter.com/GBDKvlhJk5
— 𝙉𝘼𝙅 (@najeeadams_) January 12, 2025
QJ caught 13 of his 14 targets for 186 yards in Week 18, proving once again that the last week of the season is a terrible evaluation tool for players (this probably means you shouldn't draft New York Giants WR Malik Nabers in the first round of fantasy football drafts next year, but whatever). Johnston followed that up with an abysmally poor performance in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Kamari Lassiter reminding Quentin Johnston that he held him to 1 catch for 3 yards in the National Championship 😮💨🐶 #DawgsInTheNFL
— 𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙩 (@kalleyyoung) January 11, 2025
While the above play wasn't a great throw from quarterback Justin Herbert, it embodies a big problem from Johnston this season -- his inability to be physical at the catch point. He stands at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds but has zero knack for making contested catches. That was cited as a strength of his in college, further proving that that statistic is completely worthless.
Quentin Johnston only had 2 games this season with over 100 yards and they both came against bad teams https://t.co/LywC6HG3v0 pic.twitter.com/OvZTGerDCr
— Jt ⁰ (@HunchoJt__) January 14, 2025
Johnston is most well-known for his horrible drops, which were aplenty in both 2023 and 2024. And it doesn't look like that will change. At least the team admitted their mistake drafting him, if not by words then by their actions, by drafting wide receiver Ladd McConkey early in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He had a stellar rookie season.
5. Marvin Harrison Jr. - 2024 NFL Draft, No. 4 Overall Pick
Somehow, just as the Bears chose the worst-performing quarterback of the 2024 draft with the first pick on the board, the Arizona Cardinals chose the worst of the early WR picks by drafting Harrison out of Ohio State. He was crowned as the next utterly generational prospect, a guaranteed WR1 at the next level from day one, and was pushed up astronomically in fantasy football draft boards.
Marvin Harrison Jr (per @FTNFantasy)
-Out wide 73% of the time
-22 targets off go routes (6th)
-Just 1 target from pre-snap motion
-18 targets with 3-plus yards of separation (52nd)ARI too often lined him up on the perimeter and asked him to win.
Need more layups in year two. pic.twitter.com/H8oS3wuvYS— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) January 13, 2025
The end of the season is where copium is at a maximum, with fans of their teams digging deep for as many possible ways to view their players in a positive light. But again, we're better off comparing them to the players that were missed out on. MHJr's lack of ability to separate out wide and his overall dearth of athleticism reared their ugly heads in 2024.
We saw the aforementioned Nabers and McConkey have massive rookie years, flashing elite potential and delivering in some of their games. And the Jacksonville Jaguars chose WR Brian Thomas Jr., who caught 87 of his 133 targets for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. Harrison technically had a fine season by some metrics, finishing with 885 yards and 10 TDs of his own.
Malik Nabers:
31% Targets per Route Run
2.25 Yards per Route Run
53% Air Yards ShareMarvin Harrison Jr:
22% TPRR
1.87 YPRR
40% AYSBrian Thomas Jr:
23% TPRR
2.68 YPRR
28% AYSLadd McConkey:
24% TPRR
2.01 YPRR
27% AY ShareYes, Ladd belongs in this discussion. pic.twitter.com/8dpQvXg0ei
— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) October 28, 2024
It's hard to say how much room for improvement there is right now. But for the hype and his selection as the first WR off the board in what was widely considered to be a historic receiver draft class, he's been a huge bust so far.
4. Anthony Richardson - 2023 NFL Draft, No. 4 Overall Pick
Richardson has flashed plenty of potential in his deep-passing game and as a runner, but his lack of consistency, terrible completion rate, poor accuracy, and lack of improvement through two seasons of playing in the league have rightfully earned him a spot on this list. Not all players are expected to be great out of the gates, but early draft picks need to show us something.
This isn't groundbreaking, but Anthony Richardson plays QB like no one in the NFL right now pic.twitter.com/6rVeNspNBN
— Rich - DynastyIsland 🏝 (@DynastyIsland) January 14, 2025
He's one of the worst QBs in the past few years on short-play completion percentage. In fact, he's been so bad on horizontal throws that he's opted to consistently sling the ball down the field, to poor results. There are endless highlight-reel-worthy huge plays mixed in with equally fascinating awful decisions, inaccurate throws, and a lack of vision.
Charted off-target % before this week. Interested in Anthony Richardson after today (check out Flacco horizontal throws) pic.twitter.com/gUCTbuHbsi
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 21, 2024
And his overall accuracy was incredibly poor. In fact, it was around 10% worse than the next-worst player, Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston. Worse than New York Giants QB Daniel Jones as well. The fourth-overall pick was thoroughly outplayed by backup QB Joe Flacco, who is 39 years old. Not a great look.
Least-accurate QBs of 2024 📉
[+by Accurate Throw Rate, min. 250 dropbacks]
35. Jordan Love - 45.2%
36. Dak Prescott - 45.1%
37. Daniel Jones - 44.3%
38. Jameis Winston - 43.9%
39th/last. Anthony Richardson - 39.4% pic.twitter.com/nOy8VKNB8U— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) January 12, 2025
3. Kyle Pitts, 2021 NFL Draft, No. 4 Overall Pick
Yes, the top-3 players on this list are all from the same draft. One of the reasons why Pitts makes this list is because the draft had some superstars just a few picks below -- most notably, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. We have no doubts that the Bengals' management was sweating bullets while the Falcons were on the clock. Luckily, Atlanta went completely insane and reached for a tight end.
Kyle Pitts in 2038: https://t.co/dqd1TmsUFp pic.twitter.com/sYttIgFjUh
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) January 11, 2025
The rest is history. Chase immediately elevated his quarterback, Joe Burrow, and helped his team earn a berth in the Super Bowl in his rookie season. Among his greatest moments are an 11-catch, 266-yard, 3-touchdown nuclear detonation of a game in Week 17 against the Kansas City Chiefs in his rookie year. Meanwhile, Pitts has flopped massively.
In honor of 9-1 day, here’s JaMarr Chase going for 266 yards and 3 TDs against the Chiefs his rookie year. pic.twitter.com/9wWvplyccv
— The Nati King (@thenatiking) September 1, 2024
One is bound for Canton. Chase won the Triple Crown by catching 127 of his 175 targets for 1,708 yards and 17 scores in 2024. Pitts hasn't eclipsed 100 receiving yards in a game since his rookie season with quarterback Matt Ryan. And by all means, he seems to have regressed.
By the way, the Falcons passed up on offensive tackle Penei Sewell, cornerback Jaycee Horn, cornerback Patrick Surtain II, linebacker Micah Parsons, and offensive tackle Rashawn Slater. Had their general manager taken the obvious pick (Chase) or just picked a random player from the list of BPA's remaining, he'd have done better.
2. Zach Wilson - 2021 NFL Draft, No. 2 Overall Pick
The New York Jets chose Zach Wilson, quarterback from BYU, as their franchise savior. What a horrible decision that was. Read the above section if you want to know who they could have gotten instead. Wilson went on to embody the Jets franchise for a few seasons, and was eventually dumped for QB Aaron Rodgers, who is also embodying the franchise. That's a bad thing.
ZACH WILSON THROWS A BRUTAL PICK WITH THE GAME ON THE LINEpic.twitter.com/WIjWCvaEfy
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 13, 2023
Chief among his problems is an inability to read NFL defenses. He has good arm strength, can technically make all the throws, and is quite mobile. But what's between the ears is often more important for QBs, and Wilson doesn't have it.
ZACH WILSON WITH AN INSANE THROW ROLLING LEFT ON THE RUN.
SO SO CLOSE TO HAVING A MIRACLE…. pic.twitter.com/YQVqm8h5l3
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 13, 2023
A quick search of X (formerly Twitter) does show plenty of rose-colored glass takes and highlights (or near-highlights, like the above play). The problems show up when you look at the scoreboard. Much like Williams, he failed to put his team in a position to win, instead failing on drive after drive through costly turnovers, taking unnecessary sacks, and failing to execute the offense.
He'll be a somewhat-serviceable backup for years to come, we imagine.
1. Trey Lance - 2021 NFL Draft, No. 3 Overall Pick
It's hard to imagine that San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch thought it was a good idea to trade three first-round picks for a quarterback with such little starting experience. Lance started in a total of 17 games in college and attempted just 318 passes. The "I Can Fix Him" mentality applies to professional sports as it does to dating, though.
Trey Lance throws 5 Interceptions vs the Chargers #CowboysNation pic.twitter.com/3HmcRbkTCj
— awthentik (@awthentik) August 25, 2024
Lance can't even run an offense in preseason games. His only good trait is his mobility. He has no business being on an NFL field in a regular-season or playoff game, and he's proven that several times over now. It's hard to understand what Lynch or the general NFL community saw in him. We have the benefit of hindsight, but they have the benefit of being a massive industry with tons of resources.
Trey Lance misses #83 wide open.He sees him why can’t he just throw it early and on time? Instead he pump fakes, then he takes forever to get the ball out, and then he makes his WR dive for the ball that is thrown behind him.This should be a quick easy completion and a touchdown. pic.twitter.com/icyNADxMzC
— Tapia (Tanks Takes) (@juan_frann7) January 7, 2025
As everyone knows, it was a hilarious twist of fate that the team drafted Brock Purdy as the last pick in the draft. He will be the one to earn the massive extension (likely north of $50 million per year), while Lance will probably never see that kind of money in his lifetime.
Another thing that's hard for us to imagine is another player taking the top spot on our list of the biggest draft busts of the 2020s.
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