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Thunder Dan Palyo looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 4 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Week Three was incredibly high scoring as the Vikings-Chargers game was as offense-filled as we expected, the Dolphins dropped 70 points on the Broncos, and a number of cheap value plays (Tank Dell, Adam Thielen - among others) went off. And now that the dust has settled, we do what we always do every Tuesday or Wednesday each week - we start getting ready to do it all over again!
This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 1. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 4 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. This week we have the normal amount of primetime games with one each on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights but we also have a Sunday morning game in London (Falcons-Jaguars) that won't appear on the main slate.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 3: Main Slate Only
- 49ers - 29
- Bills - 28.25
- Eagles - 26.5
- Chargers - 26.5
- Dolphins - 25.25
- Cowboys - 25
The Bills and Dolphins play each other in what should be the game of the week, while the Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers are all home favorites.
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Three Weeks: Points Per Game
- Dolphins - 43.3
- Bills - 30.3
- 49ers - 30
- Chargers - 28.7
- Cowboys - 28.7
- Eagles - 28
This whole Miami Dolphins run is hell for a defense
-Mostert motions into the backfield
-Orbit motion from the short side of the condensed 2x2 (becomes a lead blocker)
-Fake to Mostert w/ a puller
-End around toss to Devon Achane who was lined up at WR— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) September 26, 2023
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Three Weeks: Points Allowed Per Game
- Browns - 10.7
- Bills - 11.7
- Cowboys - 12.7
- 49ers - 14
- Saints - 16.5
- Ravens - 18
I mentioned this last week, but consider that the Browns allowed two defensive touchdowns to the Steelers in Week 2. You take those points away and they are allowing less than a TD per game. They meet the Ravens this week, who also crack this list at number six. The Bills put on a clinic last week against the Commanders and let's not forget that they allowed a punt return touchdown to the Jets in their opening game, too, otherwise they have allowed just two offensive touchdowns all season.
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Three Weeks
- Dolphins - 550.5
- Chargers - 416.7
- Vikings - 406
- 49ers - 399
- Eagles - 384.3
- Bills - 383.3
Week 4 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. With three weeks of games now under our belt, let's look just at 2023 data here and I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Chargers (5) vs. Raiders (28)
- 49ers (3) vs. Cardinals (18)
- Raiders (22) @ Chargers (27)
- Bengals (25) @ Titans (25)
- Panthers (24) vs. Vikings (23)
If Jimmy Garoppolo is unavailable in week 4 vs. the Chargers would the #Raiders start Brian Hoyer or Aiden O’Connell?
Here’s Josh McDaniels’ thoughts on that: pic.twitter.com/mtNN0riYFS
— Jesse Merrick (@JesseNews3LV) September 25, 2023
Most Passing Yards Per Game Through Three Weeks
- Dolphins - 362
- Vikings - 339.7
- Chargers - 308.7
- Rams - 284
- Texans - 271
Most Passing Yards Per Game Allowed Through Three Weeks
- Chargers - 337
- Bears - 285.7
- Broncos - 280.7
- Titans - 275.3
- Eagles - 261.5
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Eagles (2) vs. Commanders (15)
- Cardinals (3) @ 49ers (21)
- 49ers (4) vs. Cardinals (19)
- Chargers (8) vs. Raiders (22)
- Colts (14) vs. Rams (29)
DEANDRE SWIFT GOES AIRBORNE pic.twitter.com/60IQQysBuh
— PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience (@PointsBetFBG) September 26, 2023
Most Rushing Yards Per Game Through Three Weeks
- Dolphins - 188.3
- Eagles - 185.7
- 49ers - 167.2
- Browns - 160.7
- Ravens - 158
Most Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game Through Three Weeks
- Broncos - 177.7
- Bengals - 151.7
- Steelers - 151.7
- Panthers - 136.7
- Cardinals - 134.7
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Chargers (Garoppolo?), Broncos (Fields), Vikings (Dalton/Young?), Colts (Stafford), Bears (Wilson)
RB - Broncos (Hebert/Johnson), Bears (Javonte Williams), Panthers (Mattison), Texans (Harris), Steelers (Pierce)
WR - Chargers (Adams), Vikings (Thielen), Titans (Chase), Steelers (Collins/Dell), Broncos (Moore)
TE - Eagles (Bates/Thomas), Bengals (Okonkwo), Raiders (Everett), Dolphins (Kincaid/Knox), Bears (Trautman)
DEF - Commanders (PHI), Bears (DEN), Browns (BAL), Titans (CIN), Vikings (CAR)
Week 4 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
The Cheap Stack section has been pretty useful I think as we had some more solid hits last week. Stroud-Dell last week was a great connection (though I paired him with Nico Collins too often!) FanDuel pricing is listed first in parentheses, followed by DraftKings.
- Wilson - Mims Jr. (12.9k, 9.7k)
- Stroud - Dell (12.9k, 10.2k)
- Stafford - Atwell (12.9k, 11.2k)
- Dalton - Thielen (13.6k, 9.6k)
- Purdy - Aiyuk (14.7k, 12.1k)
If Bryce Young can't go, I really like that Dalton-Thielen pairing after what they did together last week. It's a revenge game for Thielen against his former Vikings team, too (if you like narratives).
Adam Thielen
⁃ 31.5 Fantasy Points Week 3
⁃ 11 Catches, 145 Yards, 1 TD
⁃ 14 Targets
⁃ 24% Target Share
⁃ Great Schedule: MIN DET MIA
⁃ Top 36 WR moving forwardAndy Dalton to Thielen is a thing.
25% target share for Thielen Weeks 2-3.
Flex!
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) September 25, 2023
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Anthony Richardson and Jimmy Garoppolo are "optimistic to play" while Bryce Young seems pretty dicey (I am actually hoping he's out so I can play a cheap Andy Dalton). Derek Carr is out, leaving Jameis Winston the likely Week Four starter for the Saints.
RB: Austin Ekeler is still very much up in the air at this point and would we really be surprised if the Chargers rested him one more week with the Raiders on the schedule this week? Gus Edwards is in the concussion protocol and Justice Hill missed last week's game, leaving Melvin Gordon as the lone healthy back in Baltimore. He had 12 touches last week, managing 55 yards from scrimmage.
WR: Deebo Samuel is questionable for San Francisco, while Jaylen Waddle is still in the concussion protocol after missing Week Three. Baltimore is banged up in their receiving corps, too, with OBJ missing last week's game and Rashod Bateman now questionable for Week Four. If a concussion forces Jonathan Mingo to miss this week, that could mean even more targets for Adam Thielen.
TE: Logan Thomas missed last week's game, though it didn't matter much as the Commanders got waxed. This week I have some interest in whoever lines up at tight end for Washington as the Eagles have given up a lot of fantasy points to opposing TEs so far this year so keep an eye on that situation.
Week 4 Interesting Stats
Only three pass-catchers have five targets inside the 10-yard line this season - Tyreek Hill, Jakobi Meyers, and...Jake Ferguson!
Adam Thielen caught both of his targets inside the 20-yard line last week for touchdowns and now has a 50% red zone target share for Carolina.
Despite only catching eight of 18 targets for 89 yards this season, Tee Higgins has a 55% share of the Bengals air yards through three games.
After another huge game against the Steelers, Davante Adams is now tied with Puka Nacua for the largest share of their teams' targets (38.8%).
Kansas City (not on the main slate) leads the NFL with a 9% DBOE (drop backs over expectation). The next most-pass heavy teams have been the Chargers, Bengals, and Bills between 6-7%.
After getting gashed by Chris Olave, Keenan Allen, and Amari Cooper in weeks 1-3, the Titans rank dead last in DVOA against opposing WR1. Next up - Ja'Marr Chase!
Marvin Mims Jr. is averaging 7,63 yard per route run, which is more than twice the next closest receiver (Tyreek Hill at 3.15). Is Mims just a long-ball specialist, or will the Broncos start getting this guy involved more often?
Alright, that's it for my Week 4 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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