RADIO
I'm back for a second straight week of coverage for this WR/CB matchups column. I'll be covering who can't cover their opponent once again (I'm a sucker for a good play on words). I'll do my best to give you a few of my favorite plays and I'm also trying to look for some more contrarian spots because everyone already knows to play Cooper Kupp, right?
A few of these receivers could end up making your cash game build, but most of them fall squarely into "GPP consideration" and I think you'll find most of them relatively lightly rostered in DFS contests this weekend.
Matchups for the wide receiver position aren't always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers sometimes move around the formation or may face shadow coverage, meaning these matchups need to be broken down deeper based on that data. Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 5. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games. The matchup data used in this article is from PFF.
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Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders vs. Kristian Fulton
DraftKings $6200 / FanDuel $6500
I'd be lying if I told you that I have played Scary Terry even once this season. Even when I was stacking Washington the first few weeks, I was playing the cheaper receivers like Dotson and Samuel with Wentz. He's had a disappointing start to the year for a WR1, having cracked 100 yards just once (Week 3 against Philadelphia) and has only one TD catch (all the way back in Week 1 against Jacksonville).
But I am always looking to buy low on talented players, especially when they are in good spots. The Commanders are only slight underdogs this week against Tennessee and have shown that they're not afraid to let Wentz throw the ball 40+ times a game. They're likely going to have to do it anyway, as their defense has not stopped opposing teams very often. So we are probably getting another pass-heavy game script from Washington against a Tennessee secondary that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game to opponents.
They've also allowed the third-most yards per passing attempt, meaning they are giving up big chunk plays - and those are often McLaurin's specialty as he's seventh in the NFL in average air yards per target (15.8).
We went after Fulton last week with Michael Pittman and it didn't quite work out, but Indianapolis still threw for 356 yards while playing from behind. Fulton is Tennessee's best corner and is the 42nd-ranked corner by PFF, however that rating is boosted by a 92 grade against the run. He's actually rated the 72nd-best corner in coverage. If there was a week where McClaurin could break out, I think it's this one!
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. Bradley Roby
DraftKings $5600 / FanDuel $6800
Lockett was outshined by DK Metcalf last week but still finished with a very respectable 6-91 on 8 targets. Geno Smith is playing really well right now and has developed a nice rapport with both Lockett and Metcalf, which is just one of the reasons why I like the Seahawks as road underdogs this week.
The Saints are a pass-funnel defense that usually shut down opposing run games, but they actually rank 13th this season against the run and pass in DVOA. Seattle used to be a run-first offense, but this year they've actually thrown the ball 61% of the time this year.
Neither of the Saints' corners rates very well this season as Marshon Lattimore and Roby have middling grades of 55 and 54, respectively. But Lattimore's reputation precedes him and if we think he's likely to lock onto the bigger-bodied Metcalf more often, then I like Lockett's chances against Roby.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints vs. Michael Jackson
DraftKings $5700 / FanDuel $6900
It's official, Michael Thomas is out, and with Jarvis Landry still questionable we should see Olave function as the top option in the passing game for New Orleans against Seattle. Last week, he caught four balls for 67 yards and a score and was targeted 7 times by backup Andy Dalton. It looks like Dalton again this week and I have enough confidence in his abilities to think that he can get the ball to Olave often and that Olave will be able to get open against this poor Seattle secondary.
Whether he's squaring off with Jackson or Tariq Woolen, he will be facing a below-average corner in a Seattle secondary that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the most yards per passing attempt (8.7). We saw Goff and the Lions pass all over Seattle last week and I think we see Dalton have some success here, too.
The Saints have traditionally been run-first, like Seattle, but are also passing a lot more this season (63% of the time). This game has some weird, maybe sneaky shootout appeal, and Olave's massive air yard share (42%) continues to be one of the highest in the league. He's running the type of routes we want to see for a receiver's fantasy value. This could be another big spot for Olave to shine and bolster his stats as he makes a run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
DraftKings $4100 / FanDuel $5700
Jones is set to play this week after spending most of the week on the injury report. My colleague Andrew Lalama projects that Jones ends up seeing Stingley Jr. more often on Sunday, which would be ideal as he rates far worse in coverage (45.6) than the Texans' best corner Steven Nelson (77.5). We could see Nelson lock on to Christian Kirk, too, which would mean more snaps for Jones against the lesser Houston corners.
Jones is far too cheap here for the level of involvement that he's had in this offense. He missed last week's game but averaged six catches on eight targets in Jacksonville's first three games. Jones has a solid 79% catch rate this year, good for ninth-best in the NFL, and is averaging five yards after the catch. Even if he's not operating down the field as often as Kirk, he's been incredibly productive with his opportunities.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Byron Murphy Jr.
DraftKings $7500 / FanDuel $8000
I think it's going to be another big week for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' passing game. Philadelphia has the 4th-best DVOA pass offense in the league through the first four weeks and brings their aerial attack into Arizona to face a defense that has surrendered over 250 passing yards per game and ranks 28th in DVOA passing defense.
Murphy Jr. is Arizona's best corner, but he ranks only 51st in overall rating on PFF and has a middling coverage grade of just 61.4. To be fair, you could probably include Brown in this column every week, he's a match-up nightmare for opposing corners with his size and speed. Jalen Hurts continues to look his way first and foremost as he leads the team in receptions, yards, and targets. I'm convinced the touchdowns will be coming, too, since Brown has only one receiving TD despite having a 33% red zone target share.
Brown and the Eagles passing attack should be popular this week, but this is too good of a spot to pass up. While Philly likes to run the ball, I think Arizona has a good enough defensive front to slow down the run game and force Hurts and the Eagles into throwing the ball more, creating a game script in which they finish as the top stack on the board.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. Kindle Vidor
DraftKings $6300 / Fanduel $6300
I love playing Thielen against teams that have a big dropoff from their top corner to their second corner as most teams are going to attempt to stop Justin Jefferson with their best cover guy, right? That's exactly the case here with Chicago as Jaylon Johnson should be tasked with slowing down Jefferson, leaving Kindle Vidor (47.9 PFF coverage grade) on Adam Thielen.
Thielen is a WR1 that is functioning as a WR2 in this offense. He has size, decent speed, and is an elite route runner. He's running the less exciting routes in this offense but is a guy that Kirk Cousins relies on to move the chains. People don't love playing possession receivers and it's true his ceiling is going to be lower than Jefferson's every week. But he's a solid red zone threat and has seen his targets slowly increase the last three weeks from 7 to 8 to 9 against New Orleans last week.
The Vikings pass offense has a great match-up here overall against a middling Bears secondary and pass rush, so I definitely want some exposure to pieces of this passing game. If he goes 7-75 with a touchdown this week at this price, he's going to win you some money!
All data is from PFF, FantasyData and Player Profiler. Thanks for reading and good luck in your DFS contests!
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