NFL Scouting Combine - Fantasy Risers and Fallers

March 3, 2020

Pierre Camus evaluates results of the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine to declare the biggest risers and fallers for fantasy football and dynasty league purposes.

Now that all the hands have been measured, 40 yards have been dashed, and benches have been pressed, it's time to look back at the results in order to declare winners and losers. Of course, it isn't possible to actually "win" the NFL Combine but it is possible for players to see their draft stock rise or fall significantly, both in real-life and fantasy.

For quarterbacks, the Combine seems to do nothing more than reaffirm pre-existing beliefs. Ultimately, it would be pretty hard to imagine anything that guys like Herbert or Love could do to make their draft stock fall. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa didn't even participate, wisely so, as their draft stock can go no higher.

At running back, there is a deep class but nobody was expected to blow up the Combine like Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey. Unsurprisingly, nobody did. Still, a couple of RBs stood out among the pack and could have improved their draft stock. There was no Mike Gesicki-like performance among the TEs either. Not that tight ends are that interesting from a fantasy perspective anyway. Meanwhile, an Alabama receiver shined brightest and it isn't the guy currently slated to be the 1.01 in most rookie drafts. Let's take a look at the biggest dynasty football risers and fallers based on the NFL Scouting Combine.

Rookie Risers

Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)

The former Badger was the headliner of this year's Combine and may have worked his way up to the top pick in many dynasty rookie drafts. There's always a hint of doubt when evaluating a Wisconsin running back because of the offensive system and massive lineman that have helped many RBs pile up yardage over the year. Not all have found the same level of success in the NFL, though (e.g. Ron Dayne). Taylor already came in with a College Dominator rating in the 93rd percentile but proceeded to quieted any doubters with a 4.39 40 time and performed well in agility drills too. He is a lock to be a top-five pick in rookie drafts and enters the conversation for top pick among rookie RBs in redraft.

Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)

If you watched Akers at all during his tenure at FSU, you had to feel bad for him. He was stuck behind a bad offensive line, took handoffs from three different quarterbacks, and suffered through terrible coaching during his three seasons. That caused this former five-star recruit to fall under the radar after failing to average five yards per carry for his college career. The secret is out now, however, after his impressive Combine showing that included a 4.47 40 time and standing out in the awesomely-named "Duce Staley drill." He looked fluid in his cuts on the field and grew as a pass-catcher each year in college, so he could be a natural pro running back. Akers may not be Dalvin Cook 2.0 but he is likely to be the best value among first-round rookie RBs.

Darrynton Evans (RB, Appalachian State)

You'd be excused for not knowing who Evans is, even after compiling 3,203 scrimmage yards and 31 touchdowns at the NCAA level. His competition in the Sun Belt conference might be questionable, but his speed is not. Evans recorded the second-fastest 40 time among running backs (4.41) and has put himself on the map to be a late selection on draft day.

Henry Ruggs (WR, Alabama)

He's unpolished, inconsistent, didn't produce enough on the field... who cares anymore? Ruggs ran a blazing 4.27, finished second in vertical jump (42"), and fourth in broad jump (131") among wide receivers. His physical talent was on display, securing the idea that he belongs in the league. There have been secondary receivers at Alabama during the Saban era that didn't shine in the league, such as Robert Foster and Ardarius Stewart, so the low 17.5% CDR can't be dismissed outright. We also have recent memories of John Ross, whose blazing speed hasn't translated into fantasy success. Ruggs will jump up draft boards, but shouldn't be an automatic first-round pick in dynasty. If he falls to a team with a passer who can hit on the deep ball effectively, such as Arizona, Detroit, or Baltimore, then his stock should rise more.

Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)

Unless you hate your rookie receivers grizzled, like 22 1/2 years old, you should be eyeing Mims more closely. His 4.38 speed is almost as impressive as Ruggs' time considering he is 6'3" and 25 pounds heavier. Mims didn't set any records at Baylor, barely eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards in two of the last three seasons, but he is experienced and has all the requisite tools to succeed. He should be an early-to-mid-second round pick in rookie drafts.

Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)

He had the track record and comes into the draft as one of the more polished route-runners available. He went out and proved he has the blazing speed too, with a 4.38 40. Although he spent most of his time in the slot at LSU, Jefferson showed he can take the top off a defense and was versatile in his route-running during drills. He could be taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, with some mocks projecting him to Buffalo or New Orleans. He could be the quickest to make an impact in redraft leagues, behind only Jeudy and/or Lamb, depending on landing spot.

Chase Claypool (WR/TE, Notre Dame)

Is he a receiver or a tight end? Either way, he's damn fast. Claypool played receiver for the Irish but was asked by NFL teams to workout as a tight end. They may want to rethink that. He ran a 4.92 40 and posted a Speed score in the 99th percentile based on the fact he comes in at 6'4" and 238 pounds. He will likely be a hybrid player that creates mismatches at the next level based on his size/speed combo. That will play well in fantasy, especially if he does qualify at TE, making him an intriguing mid-round rookie pick and possible late-round flier in redraft leagues of 14 or more teams.

Cole Kmet (TE, Notre Dame)

He posted the best vertical jump of all tight ends at 37" and ran a 4.70 40 time that was fourth-best at TE. His measurements include a 33" arm size that has drawn some comps to Gronk. Notre Dame has a rich history of producing NFL tight ends, most recently with Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Eifert. Kmet could be the next and looks to be one of the first TEs of note in dynasty leagues.

Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)

Herbert was already expected to be a first-round pick and possibly the second QB off the board. So how could he qualify as a riser? Undoubtedly, some NFL teams had him rated highly based on physical tools but he proved that he has touch on his throw during the accuracy drills. There have been Josh Allen comps because of size similarities (Herbert is 6'6", 237 lbs, Allen is 6'5", 233 lbs). That alone isn't enough to justify the connection as Allen completed only 56% of passes and had a higher turnover rate while playing for Wyoming than Herbert did at Oregon. Herbert should have quieted all doubters and could even leapfrog Tua Tagovailoa before the NFL Draft for a team that is looking for a year-one starter and doesn't want to worry about lingering injuries.

Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma)

Disrespected once at Alabama after winning a championship and then losing his starting job, Hurts seems hellbent on not being overlooked by the NFL. He ran a 4.59 40, second-best among quarterbacks behind only Cole McDonald of Hawaii. More importantly, he looked sharp in passing drills and apparently did well in interviews. If you impress Steve Mariucci, that's got to raise your draft stock. He won't be drafted as a starter in the league and won't warrant an ADP in redraft leagues, but could make an intriguing dynasty stash in round three or later.

Rookie Fallers

Zach Moss (RB, Utah)

Before the Combine, Moss was rated as the top running back prospect by ProFootballFocus. That should change now that he's posted one of the slowest 40 times among RBs at 4.65. A hamstring injury was reportedly a factor, but that doesn't make things any better from a scouting standpoint based on his health history that includes a shoulder injury and a knee injury suffered while getting into bed. Seriously. He piled up over 4,000 rushing yards in four years at Utah and was supposed to be one of the most established backs in this class. Now, there are question marks galore.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, LSU)

This might be nitpicking but I already had some questions about Edwards-Helaire being the beneficiary of a ridiculously effective passing offense. At 5'7", he doesn't possess breakaway speed and relied on his pass-catching ability for a lot of his production last season. Much like Burrow, he's a one-year standout who averaged just 4.5 yards per carry and caught 11 passes in 2018. Everything fell into place for the Tigers this year, but carrying it into the pros is another story. In my eyes, he seems destined to be a third-down back and nothing more.

Laviska Shenault (WR, Colorado)

This is a case of insult added to injury. Shenault is having surgery to fix a core muscle injury and will be sidelined 4-6 weeks. This news came on the heels of a disappointing run of 4.58 in the 40-yard dash and an unimpressive 17-rep bench set that was his only contribution over the weekend. Obviously, the injury that he had been dealing with since before the Combine played a part in what happened. Still, the fact that he has yet another health concern after shoulder and toe issues last year should be a red flag. The depth of this class could lead him to fall behind as many as eight other receivers and to a less-favorable spot like

Jauan Jennings (WR, Tennessee)

How did Jennings disappoint in Indianapolis? Let me count the ways: 1) A 4.72 40-yard dash. 2) A 29" vertical jump that was near the bottom at all positions. 3) Less-than-desirable arm/hand size measurements. 4) Ever-growing character concerns.

There still might be a team that takes a chance on him, but fantasy owners shouldn't.

Jeff Thomas (WR, Miami)

As a lifelong Hurricanes fan, this is disappointing to admit. Thomas' game is based on breakaway speed, especially given his 5'10", 174-pound frame. He managed an average of 15.9 yards per receptions in three years at the U but those big plays came too infrequently. He needed a Ruggs-like showing to catch the attention of scouts and it didn't happen, as he posted a good-not-great 4.45 time. His best hope is to be a late-round flier or sign in a favorable spot as an UDFA to win a spot on special teams.

Jared Pinkney (TE, Vanderbilt)

Bottom line: he showed hands of steel during the drills and his terrible 4.96 40 time was just icing on the cake. Pinkney had a strong 2018 but in his other three seasons he failed to even reach 300 receiving yards. This is a once-promising prospect that can be faded hard in dynasty.

Hold

D'Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)

He didn't quite crack the top-five 40 times among running backs, but a 4.48 is nothing to be mad at. Swift may have lost some ground to Taylor, but it still wouldn't be surprising to see him taken as the 1.01 in many rookie drafts. He's currently going as the 1.02 on average in rookie drafts, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.

J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)

Dobbins didn't fully participate, so there is obviously no way to justify changing his valuation. He was fifth in FBS with 6.65 yards per carry and tied Taylor for third with 2,003 rushing yards. His 23 reps on the bench was impressive, if you're into that sort of thing when evaluating runners. Otherwise, there isn't much to say here except that he remains in the conversation as a top-five rookie pick.

AJ Dillon (RB, Boston College)

Dillon is a 247-pound bruiser, so he wasn't expected to show blazing speed. He also wasn't expected to lead the pack with a 41" vertical leap. These numbers are positives, but at this point don't we already know what we're getting with Dillon? He's a straightaway between-the-tackles runner who can carry the load for a full game and find the end zone when needed. His 4.53 40 time impressed many but it really does nothing to change who he is. Dillon is not a threat out of the backfield as a receiver, catching just 21 passes over three years at BC. He won't necessarily be viewed as a bell-cow in the NFL. In this age of RB committees, I wouldn't hitch my wagon to Dillon too early in fantasy leagues.

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