RADIO
Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football updates for running backs after Week 11, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.
Folks, it's time to put on your battle armor and get ready for war. We've completed 11 weeks and I can see the playoffs on the horizon already. And let me tell you something: nobody is pushing me out of them. If you too have a chance at making the playoffs at this point in the season, that means you have been able to dominate for more than two-thirds of it. No team has been as good as yours. No fantasy GM has come close to you and your decision-making. Only one thing can beat you to the finish line: yourself. But hey, don't lose any bit of hope. I'm here for another week to show you how the league is looking entering the home stretch of the season, so you can make the final pinpoint decisions of the year and bring that championship home.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Week 11 - The Running Game Is Alive!
I have mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players through this series of articles: Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to knowing who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
Last season, the NFL introduced the concepts of:
- Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders?)
- Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
- Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball carrier gained more yards than expected)
I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att," which accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 55 rushing attempts.
Running Backs Efficiency
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Remember, the more "efficient" a rusher is, the lower amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposite goal line in a straight route.
The last time we checked, there was only one sub-3.00 EFF player. That's no longer the case, as the Panthers' D'Onta Foreman dropped down to the seventh most-efficient player (injured Rashaad Penny, barely qualifying).
Of course, for the third time in a row checking the RB leaderboards, there is a new leader in place (Penny) followed closely by Tony Pollard and Khalil Herbert. None of those three players have rushed the rock even 120 times, with Jonathan Taylor having the best EFF while having 150+ carries.
Taylor's 3.26 EFF is the best among players with 150+ carries followed by Josh Jacobs' 3.27 figure. You have to go down to a 3.44 mark next to those two belonging to Miles Sanders. Jamaal Williams is the only other 150-carry player with an EFF figure below 3.50.
Cam Akers and Brian Robinson have not been able to escape the bottom of the leaderboard with three more weeks in the books, while Chase Edmonds did but only because he didn't even qualify for the Week 11 leaderboard.
Akers' putrid 5.05 EFF is as distanced from Robinson's second-worst 4.57... as Robinson's figure is from 11th-worst Joe Mixon.
Joe Mixon (4.07), by the way, has the highest EFF figure among players with at least 150 carries through Week 11. Najee Harris merits a special mention as he's at an even worse 4.29 missing by just a couple of carries (148) to enter that select group.
The Rams have two rushers qualified for this week's leaderboard but they can't be more separated in the EFF ranks. Akers is dead-last at 5.05 compared to his now former teammate Darrell Henderson Jr. (3.44) ranked inside the top-10.
Among all the 49 qualified RBs for Week 11, the average EFF is at 3.79 yards, just 0.02 yards fewer than three weeks ago when we checked for the last time.
- Rushers with EFF marks below 3.50 are averaging 9.3 ruFPPG
- Rushers with EFF marks above 4.00 are averaging 6.3 ruFPPG
Of 16 rushers with averages of 10+ ruFPPG through Week 11, the average EFF for them sits at 3.57. Those with averages of <8 ruFPPG have an average EFF of 4.00.
Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 20%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points is so minimal that it doesn't make much sense to be overly worried about it, if anything at all.
Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that almost non-existent relation, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.
Finally, after 11 weeks of play, King Henry got his due respect leading all NFL rushers with the most stacked boxes faced and the largest share of them (38.3%).
The percentage is not very separated from the second-largest one (36.1% by Brian Robinson) but the actual counting tally is insanely above everyone else with Henry facing 88 stacked boxes to second-most Nick Chubb's 56.
Only Henry, Chubb, and Jamaal Williams have rushed the rock more than 47 times against a stacked box. Saquon Barkley's 47 such carries rank fourth and he's the only player at 40+.
Akers and Eno Benjamin are the only two players still to rush the rock against stacked boxes on more than 10% of their total carries. They have faced such defenses five and six total times, respectively.
Among heavy-workload rushers (110+ attempts), It's Aaron Jones boasting the lowest stacked-box rate at just 10.5% followed by Jonathan Taylor at a distant 14.6%.
Only three players facing stacked boxes on fewer than 16% of their carries are averaging more than 7.5 ruFPPG, and of those, just one (Jonathan Taylor) is putting up double-digit FP.
Among the seven players facing stacked boxes on more than 30% of their carries, only Henry, Chubb, and Williams are averaging double-digit FP. Both have faced at least 51 total stacked boxes through Week 11.
There are eight players bunched into the 12-to-14 FP/15Att range. All of them are dealing with stacked boxes on at least 21.3% (Breece Hall) of their carries.
On the other hand, there are only four qualified players averaging fewer than 7 FP/15Att and they have faced stacked boxes with rates of 6.6, 15.4, 23.4, and 36.1 (!) percent.
Looking at the metric from a pure FPPG perspective, all but two rushers (Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler) averaging a top-23 ruFPPG figure are going against stacked boxes on more than 18% of their carries.
Only two players (Isiah Pacheco and Caleb Huntley) averaging a bottom-10 ruFPPG figure have seen stacked boxes on more than 16% of their carries.
Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-1%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
You might think that TLOS and EFF are related, as a north-south rusher should spend less time behind the line of scrimmage. With five weeks on the books already, the relation sits at a ridiculous negative 7%. I mean... nothing linked between these two things, I'm afraid.
The relation between TLOS and actual fantasy points is also pretty much nonexistent, so this metric can be discarded when analyzing players in fantasy leagues and trying to predict their outcomes.
As many as 10 players cross the LOS in 2.70 seconds or quicker. That's some burst right there, all of them led by Latavius Murray (2.61), who is just a hair above AJ Dillon's 2.62 and Damien Harris' 2.64 figures.
Among players with at least 100 carries through Week 11, D'Onta Foreman has spent the fewest seconds behind the LOS (270.3) over 102 totes (2.65 seconds per attempt). Foreman is one of only 21 qualified rushers averaging double-digit FP/15Att.
Henry and Barkley have sustained fairly quick TLOS figures even on their heavy workloads, both ranking inside the top-13 players. Chubb (174 carries), on the other hand, is the slowest player to cross the LOS on a top-heavy workload.
Three more players (along with Chubb) are spending more than three seconds behind the LOS: Kenyan Drake, Kenneth Walker III, and Chubb's teammate Kareem Hunt.
Jamaal Williams is the only player averaging more than 11 ruFPPG while having a top-10 quickest mark in TLOS. At the other end of the spectrum, three players (Chubb, Kenneth Walker III, and Dalvin Cook) are doing it while having a bottom-10 TLOS mark through Week 11.
- Rushers with 10+ FPPG through Week 11 are averaging a 2.81 TLOS
- Rushers with <7 FPPG are averaging 2.80 seconds behind the LOS.
As stated earlier, there might be a little something to this, but it's ridiculously insignificant to give it any importance at all for fantasy purposes.
ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 33% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
There was a three-way tie at the top of the YPC leaderboard the last time we checked three weeks ago, all three at 6.2 Y/A. That's not the case anymore, without even a single player at that figure.
It's Penny and Herbert at the top with only 6.0+ YPC averages, although they have rushed the rock only 57 and 108 times. Pollard and Hall follow them but still at 118 and 80 carries, respectively. It's fair to say that Travis Etienne Jr. (131 carries) is the real leader, although Pollard is close with 118 rushing attempts and the third-highest 5.9 YPC to Etienne's 5.5 figure.
Nick Chubb has the best mark among true workhorses with 5.3 YPC over 174 carries. Jacobs and Cook follow him closely at 5.1 YPC, having both carried the ball 156+ times already.
Tony Pollard is the only rusher averaging large YPC and scoring touchdowns in bunches: he's the only qualified player with more than five TDs (six) and a YPC figure above 5.3 yards per rushing attempt.
Chubb is the outlier among the double-digit TD scorers through Week 11. He's averaging 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs scored while the other two (Williams and Henry) have averages of 4.2 and 4.4 YPC to date.
Speaking of touchdowns, all qualified players (min. 55 carries through Week 11) have already scored at least one of them. Seven players have only one TD, and three have 10+. No player has eight or nine touchdowns, though, with a jump between those with seven and Derrick Henry (10).
Moving on to what everybody cares about, casual fans and diehards, one thing and one thing only is clear through Week 11: nothing is actually clear on the total yards leaderboard. Henry leads the way with 1,010 (the only thousand-yard player to date) but Barkley is only 57 yards behind, having 17 fewer carries.
Henry and Barkley lead the way but they have enjoyed ridiculously large workloads. Chubb, Pollard, Hall, Williams, and Cordarrelle Patterson have been much more efficient on a per-15-carry basis with all of them averaging 13+ ruFP/15Att compared to Henry's 10.5 and Barkley's 9.2.
Dameon Pierce (780) has the sixth-most rushing yards through Week 11 but he's also the only player at 700+ yards currently averaging fewer than 9.0 ruFP/15Att, being quite inefficient at doing his job.
YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%
Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 78% / 51% / 33% / 40% / 22%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Starting last year, the NFL introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, defender positional data, etc...).
- The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
- The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
- The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in five of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.
No more Travis Etienne at the top of the RYOE/A leaderboard as the Jaguar dropped from 2.4 to "only" 1.5 such yards per attempt.
Tony Pollard, the better Cowboys rusher from all angles and perspectives, leads the way with 2.2 RYOE/A as the only player currently outperforming the expectations by more than two full yards. He's done it over 118 carries, which is a bulky enough workload to consider the "over" real and sustainable.
Actually, all top-five players outperforming the expectations (with the exception of Hall) have rushed the rock at least 108 times so the top of the leaderboard is quite strong through Week 11.
Two of the worst-three players on the ROYE/A leaderboard belong to the Denver Broncos backfield, and four of the worst-six are split between the Rams and the Broncos.
Five players have rushed for more than was expected on 50% or more of their total carries. Four of those five also belong to just two teams: Green Bay (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) and Atlanta (Caleb Huntley and Cordarrelle Patterson). Khalil Herbert is the other one.
Najee Harris, kind of expectedly, trails everybody on the ROE% leaderboard if we consider Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Henderson Jr. just borderline qualifiers (71 and 70 totes). Harris' 32.4 ROE% is 5.5 percentage points below the next rusher qualified with 150+ carries.
Only two rushers among the 16 posting averages of 10.0+ FPPG have underperformed with a negative RYOE mark (Latavius Murray and Ezekiel Elliot).
At the opposite end, of the 13 rushers with averages of <6.0 FPPG only four of them are on the positive side of the RYOE leaderboard, although just two (Caleb Huntley and Isiah Pacheco) have figures of 1.0+ RYOE through Week 11.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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