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Justin Carter looks at five NFL running backs who will see negative TD regression in 2024. These RBs are potential fantasy football fallers.
Touchdowns can be a pretty fluky thing from year to year. For example, back in 2022, we saw Jamaal Williams lead the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns for the Lions. One year later, he scored just one touchdown while playing for the Saints.
While I don't anticipate someone having that drastic of a reduction in touchdowns in 2024, there are some players who are likely to find the end zone less often than they did in 2023.
Here are five running backs who are set to see a decrease in their rushing touchdown numbers in 2024.
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Raheem Mostert - Miami Dolphins
This one seems pretty obvious, but even the obvious must be said, right? Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns last season, besting his previous career high of eight touchdowns.
Raheem Mostert scores his 14th total touchdown of the year!#MIAvsNYJ on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/PL1eCJzDjs pic.twitter.com/3d13i4ci99— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2023
Mostert scored so much because Miami got him the ball in high-value situations. Per Add More Funds, Mostert had 44 red-zone attempts, which ranked sixth among running backs, but it was when he got inside the 5-yard line that his touches really soared, as his 19 carries inside the 5-yard line tied him for most at the position with Gus Edwards.
Simply put, it's hard to see Mostert getting that level of opportunities again this year. For one, De'Von Achane missed six games and should play a larger role in his second NFL season. Miami also spent a fourth-round pick this year on running back Jaylen Wright. Fewer opportunities will lead to fewer rushing scores for the journeyman veteran.
Gus Edwards - Los Angeles Chargers
With the Ravens last season, Gus Edwards tied for fifth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns, finding the end zone 13 times on the ground. This year, Edwards will be in Los Angeles, where he'll be splitting time with his former Ravens backfield mate J.K. Dobbins, as well as Isaiah Spiller and rookie Kimani Vidal.
Edwards only finished with so many touchdowns in 2023 due to Dobbins going down with an injury in his only game of the season. That pushed Edwards into a larger role.
If Dobbins is hurt again in Los Angeles, maybe Edwards threatens to score double-digit touchdowns again, but with a healthy Dobbins, Edwards is likely going to be used only as a short-yardage back.
And look, you might say that was how he was used last year and he scored 13 touchdowns. You'd be right, but Edwards also got 63.3% of his team's carries inside the 5-yard line. A healthy Dobbins will take some of those opportunities near the end zone.
Travis Etienne - Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne is a good running back who found the end zone 11 times last season, an increase of six touchdowns from what he did as a rookie in 2022. And the Jaguars didn't really add anyone to take snaps away from him this offseason unless you think fifth-round rookie Keilan Robinson is going to suddenly take on a huge role.
Still, there are two main reasons I see Etienne with single-digit touchdowns in 2024. One is that while there wasn't added competition, I still think 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby has a chance to eat into Etienne's touches. Bigsby saw 18% of his carries come in the red zone last year, while Etienne was at 13.8%. Maybe that's not significant, but I do think Bigsby has the build of a back who could see work near the end zone.
There's also the fact that the Jaguars added wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis this offseason, bolstering the passing attack for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jags ranked just 19th in the NFL in percentage of touchdowns coming through the passing game last season, something that I expect to change based on their additions.
David Montgomery - Detroit Lions
David Montgomery was a touchdown machine in his first season with the Detroit Lions, scoring a career-high 13 touchdowns on the ground. He rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2020.
DAVID MONTGOMERY TOUCHDOWN!!!
THE DETROIT LIONS TAKE THE LEAD WITH WITH 30 SECONDS LEFT pic.twitter.com/DCCSCLhHKI
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 19, 2023
Montgomery led the Lions in rushing attempts, but he was outsnapped by the electric rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Then when the playoffs arrived, Gibbs actually scored more rushing touchdowns than Montgomery did.
There's still a role for Montgomery on early downs, but I expect their usage inside the 5-yard line to come closer together than it did last season. Montgomery had 17 carries in the money zone, but Gibbs still had eight of his own. The Lions seem comfortable giving Gibbs the ball more in that part of the field, which should lead to a touchdown split between the two that's fairly even.
Kyren Williams - Los Angeles Rams
In his second NFL season, Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams led the NFL in rushing yards per game at 95.3 and found paydirt 12 times on the ground as well as another three times in the receiving game.
Williams did this by being incredibly efficient inside the 5-yard line. Of his 12 rushing scores, nine of those were for five yards or fewer. Williams had really good luck when rushing the ball down in that part of the field. Per Add More Funds, he had 13 carries in the money zone, so that would mean he scored on 69.2% of his carries in that part of the field.
That's a pretty high rate, one you'd expect would fall a bit in 2024. Another factor that can make Williams' touchdown rate fall? Added competition. The Rams drafted Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round this year. Corum's an NFL-ready back who made his name scoring touchdowns. He had 27 of them in 2023.
While Corum might not be a future NFL star, he's a hard-nosed runner who is likely going to see touches near the end zone. That naturally would lead to a reduction in opportunities for Williams. While I think Williams will be fine in terms of yardage because he's the lead back and will get plenty of work between the 20s, I could definitely see Corum coming in to spell him down around the goal line.
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