The NBA Drop List for Week 2

October 26, 2018

Trevor Crippen wonders whether you can drop widely owned, but struggling fantasy players in The NBA Drop List for Week 2. This week he checks in on Lou Williams, Kris Dunn, and Carmelo Anthony

There are always lists upon lists of players to consider adding to your fantasy teams. If you had unlimited roster spots, you could add them all! You don't have unlimited roster spots, though. So if you want to indulge in a wild fantasy that Derrick Rose has fully returned to MVP form, you'll need to drop someone -- maybe even someone who's a decent player.

That's where I come in. This is sort of a reverse fantasy waiver wire feature, where I'll look at three players owned in over 40% of Yahoo leagues, and wonder, can you drop that guy?

While the answer to this question always could be "yes" -- if you worst player is Josh Richardson and then Jimmy Butler suddenly becomes available on the waiver wire, you should absolutely drop Richardson for Butler. However, for a normal high-end waiver wire type player, I'd never suggest dropping Richardson. So that will be my guiding light here -- if you can add the hottest realistic waiver wire add in a 12 team league, should you drop one of these guys? Let's get into it.

The NBA Drop List for Week 2

Lou Williams, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers (92% owned)

Lou Will gets the first nod in this feature because he's the player with the highest ownership rate that I've seen dropped in one of my own 12-team leagues. Before we just chalk this up to "LOL, public leagues," let's take a minute to reflect on his struggles thus far. He's only averaging just over 25 minutes in a Clippers backcourt that's incredibly deep, with Lou needing to share minutes with starters Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley, as well as impressive rookie PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On top of that, he's been ice cold with his shot (.358 from the field, .211 from three) while his assists have reverted from last year's career high of 5.3 per game (5.8 per 36 min) to only 2.3 per game (3.2 per 36).

The shot is sure to correct itself as the season progresses -- he certainly looks as crisp as ever from the line, where he's had his usual upper-echelon impact hitting 18 of 20 on the season. We should see some bounce back in his FG% which will lead to an increase in points and treys -- if you project his percentages last year onto this year's attempts, he'd jump from 15.0 points and 1.0 threes per game to 17.8 and 1.7. However, he has shifted to more of an off-ball role than the one he had to shoulder last year with all the injuries the Clippers suffered to their backcourt. His regression in assists may be real -- he only averaged 2.5 per game over the course of three years before last season. Last year's 5.3 is looking like it may have been an extreme outlier driven by circumstances, and you'll need a bunch of injuries for that set of circumstances to repeat itself.

Without the assists, you're looking at a guy who doesn't provide positive value in 5 or 6 categories of the 9, depending on where you think his turnover rate lands. And that sort of player is closer to the waiver wire than he is to other, more well-rounded contributors in the same ownership range, such as Jeff Teague (92% owned), Taurean Prince (92% owned), and Enes Kanter (91% owned). Given Lou's elite ability to score in bunches and buoy your FT%, I still believe he is a must-own player if you are punting assists in an H2H category league, given how difficult those categories can be to keep up in that build. If you're not punting assists or you're in a roto league? I'm not sure you'll be able to turn around amazing value in a trade. So if a can't miss waiver wire add is there in need of someone to drop, I wouldn't treat Lou like a normal, healthy 90+% owned player.

Baller Move: Mostly hold, but droppable in some circumstances

Kris Dunn, PG/SG, Chicago Bulls (74% owned)

Dunn is the perfect type of player with a short-term injury to stash in an IR spot. I still believe in him as a potentially elite source of assists and steals, sort of a poor man's version of John Wall in fantasy basketball value. What if you don't have an IR spot to spare, though? Do you wait four to six weeks on Dunn? It depends.

I'll break this down in two ways if you're staring at a good waiver wire add and Dunn is your best option for a drop.

Stash Dunn: In Roto leagues with capped games played (where you're looking for quality games, not max number of games), H2H category leagues where you've got a punt build that maximizes Dunn's value (for example, a combination of two to three of punt PTS, 3PM, and FT%), any deeper than 12 team leagues.

Drop Dunn: In Roto leagues without game caps, H2H category leagues where you don't have a punt to maximize his value, H2H points leagues, shallow (8 or 10-team) leagues.

Baller Move: Droppable depending on league settings, depth, and team build

Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, Houston Rockets (71% owned)

Okay, this one's a softball.  Melo's sporting averages of 8.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.0 threes, and basically zeros in every other category. His percentages are a putrid .321 and .667. He says he's facing a learning curve adjusting to the second unit. I'm not sure how much you can blame on him not starting -- we'll see, as he may get a chance to start again with an injury to starting SF James Ennis III, though the Rockets plan to at least try Michael Carter-Williams in the unit first. You wouldn't think the move would totally sap him of his ability to make any sort of basket.

He isn't going to return to the old Carmelo. Whatever form he does round himself into might be ownable in fantasy, but it won't be a league winner. You don't need to have him actively sabotaging your percentages to deliver non-existent counting stats in the meantime. I'd drop him for basically any reasonably productive player available on the waiver wire.

Baller Move: Drop it like it's hot!