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Scott Cullen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for September 15th, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
The NBA Playoffs are rocking in the Orlando bubble, with the Eastern Conference Final starting and a Game 7 in the Western Conference both set for Tuesday.
In the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics tip off their series, which is something of a surprise after they eliminated the top two seeds in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors, respectively.
In the West, the Denver Nuggets have fought back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game Seven with the Los Angeles Clippers. In Games 5 and 6, the Nuggets overcame double-digit deficits in the second half against a favored Clippers team. Now, it all comes down to one game for the chance to go on to play the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Final.
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MIAMI-BOSTON
MORE OR LESS
Jayson Tatum MORE THAN 26.5 POINTS
Boston’s rising star ought to find a match-up against Miami more favorable than facing a tenacious Raptors defense. Tatum has scored at least 27 points in six of 11 playoff games, so it’s not a lopsided line in general but if the Raptors had the best defensive team in the league and Tatum could still score against them, he should be able to take it to the Heat.
Jimmy Butler LESS THAN 21.5 POINTS
As crucial as Butler is to the Heat’s chances, he isn’t always their offensive focus. He has been held to 18 or fewer points in four of the past six games and he took just six shots from the field in Game Five against Milwaukee. Maybe he will take a bigger scoring role against the Celtics but it’s difficult to assume that he will do it right from the jump.
Kemba Walker MORE THAN 5.5 ASSISTS
Although Walker has had ups and downs in the bubble, with some concern about the health of his knee and he has recorded seven or more assists in four of 11 playoff games, but against the Heat he may have more opportunities offensively than he did against Toronto.
Duncan Robinson LESS THAN 2.5 THREE-POINTERS
During the regular season, Robinson was dropping 3.7 threes per game. He’s a real threat but it hasn’t always been easy for him to get loose in the playoffs. Robinson has gone off for seven threes twice in the postseason and then a couple of games in which he had four but that’s it. So in four of nine playoff games, he has finished with more than three three-pointers.
RAPID FIRE
Bam Adebayo -3.5 rebounds vs. Daniel Theis
In the playoffs, Adebayo has grabbed 11.7 rebounds per game, and he’s a constant in the Miami lineup. Theis is averaging 6.6 rebounds per game in the postseason and played a bigger role against Toronto than he did against Philadelphia. Will he have the agility to keep up with Adebayo and, if he doesn’t, can the Celtics play Theis big minutes?
DENVER-L.A. CLIPPERS
MORE OR LESS
Kawhi Leonard LESS THAN 31.5 POINTS
As much as Kawhi is still the focus of the Clippers team, and he has scored 32 or more points in six of 12 playoff games, but only once in six games against Denver in this series. Could he rise up in Game 7? Of course. But that’s not an easy number to cover.
Nikola Jokic MORE THAN 25.5 POINTS
As the Nuggets have surprisingly pushed the Clippers, their star center has become decidedly more aggressive offensively. During the season, Jokic averaged 14.7 field goal attempts per game. Against the Clips, it’s 19.5 per game. So, with an extra five shots per game, Jokic can score 26 or more, which he has in four of six games against Los Angeles.
Michael Porter Jr. LESS THAN 11.5 POINTS
A breakthrough performer for the Nuggets in the Orlando bubble, Porter Jr. has found it more difficult to get loose in this series, where he has scored a dozen points or more in three of six games. He has a total of 18 field goal attempts in the past three games and if he’s not getting shots, it’s hard to bank on him scoring at least 12 points in Game 7.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Porter Jr. +2.5 rebounds vs. Ivica Zubac
Zubac has found his niche in this series, where his size is needed to combat Jokic, and he has put up 8.2 rebounds per game in the series. Porter Jr. has averaged 6.8 rebounds per game against the Clippers, so if he’s getting an extra 2.5 rebounds in the series-deciding game, that makes Porter appealing.
