X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Michael Pineda - The Dogma of Disappointment Returns

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Michael Pineda is ready to reclaim a rotation spot in 2019 after another injury-filled season. Riley Mrack examines his profile to determine if Pineda is an SP worth taking a chance on in fantasy baseball drafts.

In fantasy baseball, there’s always that player who underperforms during a season and gets plenty of hype going into the following year. We all have the belief that good fortune will come at a low cost. For most of his career, Michael Pineda has been the epitome of this type of player. If you’ve ever rostered Pineda, you know the aches and pains of having him on your roster. One game, he’ll toss six shutout innings and the next game he’ll get yanked in the second. He has been one of the most unpredictable starting pitchers in recent memory.

In 2018, these fantasy managers practically rejoiced in the fact that he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. For once they didn’t have to tempt themselves with the idea of rostering Pineda to see if he could finally live up to his untapped potential. A torn meniscus in his right knee further derailed his comeback last season, and he is now ready to return in 2019.

It's been a year and a half since we last seen Pineda pitch in the majors, so we must reacquaint ourselves to the former Yankee. There was a lot to love and a lot to be frustrated about, so let’s get into the details and refresh our memory.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Walking Band-Aid

Missing a significant amount of time is very familiar territory for Pineda. Coming up in the Seattle Mariners farm system, he missed time in 2009 with an elbow injury that forced the Mariners to limit his innings in his 2011 rookie season. After an offseason trade in 2012, it turned out to be all for naught as he injured his throwing shoulder in spring training. Forced to go under the knife to fix the tear of his labrum, he missed the entire 2012 campaign and half of the 2013 season due to ongoing recovery. Pineda spent the entirety of this half-season in the minors though, before getting a spot in the rotation for the 2014 season. To no one's surprise, he only threw 76.1 IP in 2014 before re-injuring his shoulder. Pineda spent a month on the disabled list as well in 2015, this time it was a forearm strain.

Then something remarkable happened, Pineda went the entire 2016 season making 32 starts injury-free. An amazing feat, this built up his draft hype going into the 2017 season only for owners to see him go down in July to undergo TJS. Now a member of the Minnesota Twins, it’s hard to believe that there’s anything left to for him to injure moving forward, but we should expect an innings limit on his arm regardless.

 

The Underperformer

Despite the glaring innings concern, there are a few aspects in Pineda’s game that are excitable. He has some positive underlying metrics that analysts have always been aware of which has given him the most hope of improvement. The big right-hander has routinely underproduced his ERA in his three “full” big league seasons as well as his career:

ERA FIP  xFIP  SIERA
2011 3.74 3.42 3.53 3.35
2015 4.37 3.34 2.95 3.09
2016 4.82 3.80 3.30 3.40
Career 4.05 3.60 3.33 3.38

We saw in 2015 and 2016 that his ERA was over a full run more than all of his metrics, so it was no wonder why fantasy analysts were waiting for him to right the ship. With these numbers being a trend, how is it that they maintained way below his actual ERA?

The first thing to take into account is his propensity to give up the home run. Rewinding to his rookie year in 2011, Pineda had given up a 9.0% HR/FB and 0.95 HR/9, both below league average numbers. Since his move to New York his HR/FB jumped to 15.1%, and as a result, he allowed 1.29 HR/9 in his four big league seasons with the Yanks. The league average marks in this 2014-17 span were 11.9% HR/FB and 1.08 HR/9, making him nowhere close to being ordinary.

Now that Pineda is out of the Yankee Stadium bam box there is some optimism to look at in this category. His home and away splits are on completely opposite sides of the map. Serving up a 1.60 HR/9 and 18.1% HR/FB at home, he had a much more respectable 0.90 HR/9 and 11.2% HR/FB away from the Bronx. Moving to the spacious confines of Target Field in Minnesota will undoubtedly keep his fly balls in the ballpark in 2019.

What also made Pineda underachieve was his struggles with strand rate. When it rained, it poured, as batters hit .265 off him with runners on base compared to .235 with the bases empty. This inability resulted in a paltry 71.4% LOB%, nowhere near the strand rates that you’ll find with hurlers that have similar pitching repertoires, which we’ll discuss next.

 

The Strike Zone Commander

A drool-worthy attribute Pineda carries is his elite command of the strike zone. Take a look at these K/BB leaders from 2014-17:

1.Clayton Kershaw 8.02
2.Chris Sale 6.05
3.Corey Kluber 5.32
4.Max Scherzer 5.19
5.Madison Bumgarner 5.16
6.Masahiro Tanaka 5.11
7.Michael Pineda 5.04
8.David Price 5.03
9.Stephen Strasburg 4.90
10.Carlos Carrasco 4.82

You can’t get into any better elite company than that. His minuscule 1.80 BB/9 in this span was also a top-six finish, and his 9.09 K/9 was good enough for 13th best. An issue that Pineda faced with his excellent control was that players knew he’d be around the strike zone. Batters swung more often on his first pitch and hit it to a disastrous .354 AVG and .661 SLG. He has given up a whopping 19 long balls on this delivery, that's 20.9% of his lifetime total. The next closest mark was serving up 10 big flys on 1-0 pitches because you guessed it, the batter knew he wouldn’t throw back to back balls.

When Pineda could get a batter to miss a pitch, it was mesmerizing. Utilizing his slider as his primary swing-and-miss pitch it seen improvement as he’s matured. A 30.1% Whiff% in 2014 improved to 33.5% in 2015 and then hit a peak in 2016 with an extraordinary 45.4%. It took a dip in his shortened 2017 down to 39.9%, but still a very commendable number. With the TJS it will be important to watch in spring training to see if his slider has the same sharp break. An elbow injury like this could affect his ability to spin the ball, but for what its worth, Pineda managed to get nine strikeouts in 12 IP during his brief time in the minor leagues last year.

 

2019 Impending Value

Pineda is going relatively unnoticed in drafts so far with an ADP of 374. There isn’t much risk with a selection this low, but we must remember that Pineda’s health is a risk in itself. Failing to eclipse 100 IP in five of eight possible seasons since he debuted with the Mariners is a long and lousy track history. The transfer from the AL East to the AL Central is a considerable upgrade with the vast park sizes in that division. His home run susceptibility will level out now that he’s far away from Yankee Stadium, but there will likely be a bit of rust to shake off that right arm. The 30-year-old will have some work to do to regain his fastball velocity, which sat at 94 MPH in 2017 before the elbow injury, as well as honing back in on that slider. Pineda shouldn't have lost his pinpoint control in his year and a half absence, but more walks for fewer balls over the fence would be a good trade.

With that late ADP, depending on your league size, Pineda could be left on your waiver wire to begin the year. Until we see how he holds up this spring and into the early stages of the regular season, he might be a better option to use as a streaming option rather than an every game option. There certainly is a lot to like with this former top prospect, but don’t fall back into that trap of expecting it to all come into fruition, at least not yet.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Back in Action on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF