RADIO
Matthew Stafford has never been an easy guy to figure out for fantasy football owners. Fantasy owners were not sure what to expect out of Stafford this season, his first without Calvin “Megatron” Johnson as his favorite target. Many fantasy experts, including yours truly, thought Stafford would struggle without having Johnson around to bail him out on bad throws and to turn Stafford’s 10-yard tosses into 50-yard touchdowns, especially when Johnson’s replacement, Cincinnati transplant Marvin Jones, looked to be a downgrade.
Stafford has thrown for over 4,200 yards for five consecutive seasons, making him an above-average fantasy quarterback, but his numbers have regressed since his blowout 2011 campaign where he threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. He has averaged around 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns in the four seasons since. Stafford has his great games, and he has his games where he breaks the hearts and ruins the chances of millions of fantasy owners when he throws for 180 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Stafford is predictably unpredictable.
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The Good Stuff, and The Not So Good Stuff
From a fantasy standpoint, there has been plenty of good news and bad news on the Stafford front in recent weeks. Here is an overview:
The good news is that Stafford is proving he can not only survive but thrive without Megatron on the field as his go-to-guy for the first time in Stafford’s career. Stafford has turned to Jones to be his top target and has gotten off to a great start, throwing for 1,378 yards and 10 touchdowns over his first five games, which is in line with his numbers over the past several seasons.
The bad news is Stafford’s schedule coming up is as daunting as taking a nighttime stroll on Friday the 13th when you know Jason just broke out of the nearby mental institution. After two home games against Los Angeles and Washington, two middle-of-the-road defenses statistically, Detroit goes on the road to play at Houston and Minnesota. Houston has the top-ranked pass defense in the league, while Minnesota is ranked in the top-10 in several defensive categories and is arguably the best unit in the NFL.
The good news is Stafford should not struggle over the next two weeks unless the Rams’ ferocious pass rush drives him nuts this weekend. And his matchup against Houston is no longer as worrisome without J.J. Watt anchoring the Texans defense due to his season-ending back surgery. So the schedule’s strength loses its steam quicker than I do after my tenth sit-up.
The bad news is that Stafford’s running backs have been decimated. Top tailback Ameer Abdullah is on injured reserve with a foot injury, defacto starter Theo Riddick is out this week with a bum ankle and third-stringer Dwayne Washington missed Detroit’s last game with a host of lower-body injuries. That leaves newly-signed Justin Forsett as Stafford’s only option in the backfield, so defenses will likely key on shutting down Stafford’s receivers.
The good news is that Stafford has never really had a running attack that has taken pressure off of him and the passing attack. Listen to this cavalcade of mediocrity the Lions have had at running back in recent years: Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Mikel Leshoure, Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris, and Kevin Smith. Only once has a Lions running back rushed for over 1,000 yards since Stafford was drafted in 2009, and that was when Bush barely topped it with 1,006 in 2013.
Conversely, there have been times where Stafford’s best back did not even run for 600 yards in a season, including last year when Abdullah led the team with a cringe-inducing 597 yards. This lack of a running game has only made Stafford throw more, which is why he has had so many 4,000-yard years in a row. It is simple fantasy football math. More pass attempts equals more opportunities for passing yards and touchdowns.
The bad news is that Stafford has always been a borderline starting fantasy quarterback at best. He is a certain start in leagues where two QBs need to be used every week, but in one-QB leagues he is a level below Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and many other top-tier signal callers and therefore is not a definite weekly option. And he has not turned his game up a notch in 2016, so he is in the same place fantasy-wise that he has been the past several seasons.
The good news is that Stafford’s numbers are at career-high levels in non-fantasy categories. His completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and quarterback rating are all higher right now than they ever have been at the end of any of his seven other seasons. This proves he is playing some of the best football of his career, despite not having Megatron on the field making big catches for big plays week in and week out. Fantasy owners can only hope he keeps this up and that it translates into more valuable fantasy stats down the line.
The fantasy importance of Stafford depends on what kind of league you own him in. If he is your main QB, you are probably going to need the best running backs and receivers in your league to win the title. If he is your number two QB, or someone you use as your number one during weeks where he has advantageous matchups, then he can really help fantasy squads. The bottom line is that no matter what good news and bad news has come Stafford’s way in 2016, he is the same quarterback he was when Megatron was in the Motor City. And that’s a good thing for some fantasy owners and probably not as good for others.
