RADIO
Wide receiver Marvin Jones signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL offseason. Craig Rondinone analyzes Jones' fantasy football draft value.
With Urban Meyer on the sidelines and Clemson standout Trevor Lawrence probably under center, the Jacksonville Jaguars could be the NFL’s most improved team this upcoming season.
Jacksonville needed to upgrade its receiving corps, so the Jags used a chunk of their copious salary cap space to sign veteran wideout Marvin Jones Jr. to a two-year, $14.5 million deal. Jones was one of the best wide receiver options available in free agency. He scored nine touchdowns in three of his last four seasons and set career-highs with 76 receptions and 115 targets in 2020. He has a nose for the end zone and still makes big plays downfield despite being 31 years old. Jones is a dependable old-timer who should give the Jaguars a consistent pair of hands while also being able to school its younger pass catchers on the finer points of the game.
What is the fantasy impact of Jones signing with the Jaguars? Let’s look at how choosing Jacksonville could affect the fantasy fortunes of Jones, the receivers around him and the quarterback throwing to him.
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Marvin Jones
One of the reasons Jones was so successful last year, especially during the second half of the season, was because Detroit’s No. 1 WR Kenny Golladay was injured early and often and limited to just five games. Other than breakout tight end T.J. Hockenson, Jones did not have many pass catchers to fight for targets with, which is why he had one of the best years of his solid career. He became Matthew Stafford’s go-to guy and became more of a move-the-chains receiver rather than a home run threat as the season wore on while Golladay was sidelined.
Jones gets to reunite in Jacksonville with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who had no problem finding ways to get Jones the ball while the two were together in Detroit. Jones had 138 receptions and 18 touchdowns in the two years the pair worked together, which were the highest numbers in those categories for any two-year span in his career. Both Bevell and Meyer know how to utilize their receivers, so there is no worry that Jones will be stuck in Receiver Siberia like Baltimore Ravens receivers are in their run-first offense. Father Time might be the biggest worry for Jones and his fantasy managers.
Jones is showing small signs that he is slowing down. He used to average 16-to-18 yards per catch a few years ago, but the past two seasons he has averaged under 13 yards per grab. Jones has also gone without a 50-yard reception for three years now. Jones certainly is not going to get faster now that he in his thirties, and he might be asked to be the steady receiver who makes the third-down catches over the middle while the faster phenoms on the Jaguars roster get targeted downfield for huge-chunk plays.
D.J. Chark
Chark has been Jacksonville’s top target over the past two seasons, leading the Jaguars with 1,714 receiving yards and 13 touchdown catches between 2019 and 2020. He did not have much competition for the catbird seat in the passing attack as fantasy failures Chris Conley, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook were all a level below him on the field. Jones will be the biggest danger to Chark’s target total and touchdown total the latter has ever had to deal with.
Now that Chark has an above-average receiver on the opposite side of the field, does this help or hinder his fantasy value? Chark might be hard-pressed to get 100 targets if Jones gets 100 himself (not to mention 60-80 for rising star Laviska Shenault). Chark’s looks inside the red zone might drop as well since Jones is adept at outworking and outleaping cornerbacks down by the goal line.
Yet Jones could serve a huge purpose by forcing defenses not to double team Chark, something the kid has had to contend with when Jacksonville’s receiving group was subpar. Chark could see more single coverage and find more openings in secondaries thanks to Jones’ presence. I frankly think the pros and cons of Jones being on the roster will balance out and Chark’s numbers will stay in the same fantasy zip code. Chark has a better chance of racking up 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns than dropping down to the 700-yard range with just six scores. Jones has not damaged the fantasy values of the receivers around him in recent years.
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence is the consensus No. 1 pick heading into the NFL draft and the franchise foundation for Jacksonville once he is officially drafted. The way things are going he could not have a better situation to be drafted into. Jones, Chark, and Shenault have the makings of a terrific threesome at receiver, James Robinson is a do-it-all workhorse running back, and Meyer and Bevell will construct the perfect offense around Lawrence’s passing and scrambling talents. If Meyer can turn Tim Tebow into a halfway decent quarterback, he will work wonders with Lawrence and turn him into a future fantasy demigod.
We do not know if Lawrence will be like Patrick Mahomes or Heath Shuler during his rookie campaign, but more than likely he will be like the former. Jones will make life easier for Lawrence as a first-year quarterback. Lawrence can count that Jones will run the right routes and will not drop passes that hit him in the hands or the breadbasket. Jones’ red-zone presence and expertise will help Lawrence get a couple of extra touchdowns on jump balls in the end zone as well. Jones being on the team and the roster will only elevate Lawrence’s fantasy worth over the next two seasons.
Detroit's Receiving Corps
With Jones signing with Jacksonville and Golladay inking a multi-million dollar deal with the New York Giants, new starting signal-caller Jared Goff is currently stuck with injury-prone Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman has his two starting receivers on the outside. Let's hope this is not what Goff is stuck with after April's draft and once training camp opens or else his fantasy value will be down near the bottom of the quarterback barrel.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Jones was a nice acquisition for Jacksonville and should do well in his role as mentor to Chark and Co. Is he going to help Lawrence’s fantasy value? Yes. Is he going to help Chark’s fantasy value? The “yes” is not as certain, but he probably will not ruin Chark’s value, that’s for sure.
As for Jones himself, having a rookie QB throwing to him might not be as good as having Matthew Stafford throwing to him, and being a year older and getting used to new teammates might not help his fantasy worth, either. I have Jones giving fantasy managers 800 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2021 and being the No. 2 WR in Jacksonville as Chark remains the top target.
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