X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Failure to Launch: Hitters With Falling Launch Angles

Jon Anderson identifies several power hitters who saw their launch angle fall in 2020 that could be draft busts in 2021 fantasy baseball.

Launch angle is important. There is a sweet spot for launch angles and the hitters that hit the highest shares of their batted balls in those angles will have more success than the rest of the league. The reverse is also true. If you are consistently hitting the ball straight in the air or directly into the ground, your numbers are not going to be good. This visualization really sums it all up. This is the slugging percentage for every launch angle over the last two seasons.

The best angle range to live in is clearly between 15 and 30, as all of those values give you a slugging percentage above 1.000. It could then be very revealing to find hitters that were in this range but began to slide out of it. So I took each hitters median launch angle from 2019 and compared it to their 2020 season and saw which hitters had the least favorable shifts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jorge Soler (OF, KC)

This is a rolling median plot. For every ball after the 100th ball put in play, I've calculated the median launch angle for the previous 100 balls in play. This shows the trend over time of each player's launch angles.

Everything clicked for Soler in 2019 as he blasted 48 homers in 162 games, slugging .569. That was no doubt aided by him getting a lot of balls into the sweet spot. The good news is that Soler's fly balls did not turn into grounders as much as they just turned into line drives. His ground-ball rate actually dropped from 39.3% to 37.8%, but he added 4% on to his line-drives. Line drives are great for batting average, but not the best for homers.

This plot does a good job to show Soler's shift:

This plot displays the distributions of each player's launch angles, with launch angle being on the x-axis and the percent of the total on the y-axis. 

You can see that he had a much higher share of launch angles between -50 and 0 in 2020 compared to 2019.

Despite that, Soler is not someone to be really worried about. He continued to hit the ball insanely hard in 2020, and his barrel rate actually came up. He remains a guy that projects to hit a good amount of homers while not providing much else; I don't think his decreased launch angle in 2020 is worrisome.

 

Austin Riley (3B/OF, ATL)

Riley hit nine homers in his first 18 big league games, and then 17 more in the following  113 games. His .239/.301/.415 slash line in 2020 leaves a ton to be desired. He posted a median launch angle of 21 degrees in 2019, but that fell to 16 in 2020. Here's the distribution comparison:

A much flatter curve there with angles spread out above and below the optimal range. His 2019 curve is almost exactly what you want to see, really concentrated around 10-30 degrees. The 2020 curve shows a very inconsistent hitter. No doubt, the league adjusted to Riley quickly and he has some work to do to be a consistently successful power hitter moving forward.

 

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY)

Judge's struggles with injury have resulted in him playing in just 130 games over the last two seasons. He got off to a roaring start in 2020 but sputtered to the finish line. Before his August 11th injury, he hit .290/.343/.758. After returning from that injury he slashed just .194/.326/.222 in his final 43 plate appearances. His launch angles were spread all over the place as well:

I'm willing to forgive Judge here and attribute the poor performance to injury, but of course, we cannot forget about the trouble he's had staying on the field moving forward. The true questions revolve around health, not raw ability.

 

Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI)

Hoskins actually had the opposite problem in 2020. While the rest of the guys saw their launch angles fall out of the optimal zone downwards, Hoskins exited that zone upwards. His median angle in 2019 was a very nice 23.5 degrees, but in 2020 that came up to 32 degrees. While 32 degrees is a good spot to be at, the fact that 32 is his median means half of his balls were hit above there, which is out of the optimal range. Here are the distributions:

You're going to have trouble getting anything above 35 degrees out of the ballpark, and Hoskins hit a lot of balls above that angle. He also added on more balls hit directly into the ground, so it's not a very good look for Hoskins here.

 

Joey Gallo (OF, TEX)

Gallo has always been "home run or bust", but he took that to a new ridiculous level in his short 2020 season. He hit just .181/.301/.378, but still with a respectable 10 homers. His strikeout rate stayed ridiculously high (35%), but his walk rate fell (12.8%). He still kept the ball in the air but got it a little too far in the air quite a bit.

That is just way too many balls hit above 40 degrees. Gallo has been the barrel rate king in his career, with a career barrel rate of 21.4% (the league average is 6.1%). In 2020 he posted a 14% barrel rate, which is awful by his standards. If Gallo cannot bring his median angle down in 2021, it's going to be another just atrocious batting average season for him (we're talking sub .200 for a guy that strikes out this much).

 

Austin Meadows (OF, TB)

The Rays outfielder was on the field for just 36 games last year and struggled mightily with a .205/.296/.371 line. That had a lot to do with his constant pop-ups. His fly-ball rate came up to a career-high 53.6%, but lots of those fly-balls were just hit way too high in the air.

That's an impressive share of balls hit above 50 degrees, not a good sign. It probably has to do with the lack of timing he had given the strange season and his injuries, so I wouldn't read too much into the 152-plate appearance sample.

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

This is one of the biggest shifts we see. Conforto had his median angle comfortably above 20 degrees for most of 2019, but near the end and into 2020 it really fell off. His median angle in 2019 was 17 degrees and it fell to 14 degrees for 2020.

Conforto's line drive rate ballooned from 23.9% to 30.3% in 2020, while his fly-ball rate plummetted from 40% to 28%. That move is visualized nicely in the plot above. Conforto rode the increased line drive rate to a career-best .322 batting average, but his power production fell off in step (homered at a rate of below 25 homers per 162 games last season after hitting 33 homers in 2019). That gives us optimism that you can get tons of production from Conforto even without the ball leaving the yard, but it's not clear that he's a guy that can flirt with 40 homers anymore. Only time will tell.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Jonathan India

Leaves With Apparent Shoulder Injury
Evan Carter

Leaves Early With Wrist Soreness
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF