X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Failure to Launch: Hitters With Falling Launch Angles

Jon Anderson identifies several power hitters who saw their launch angle fall in 2020 that could be draft busts in 2021 fantasy baseball.

Launch angle is important. There is a sweet spot for launch angles and the hitters that hit the highest shares of their batted balls in those angles will have more success than the rest of the league. The reverse is also true. If you are consistently hitting the ball straight in the air or directly into the ground, your numbers are not going to be good. This visualization really sums it all up. This is the slugging percentage for every launch angle over the last two seasons.

The best angle range to live in is clearly between 15 and 30, as all of those values give you a slugging percentage above 1.000. It could then be very revealing to find hitters that were in this range but began to slide out of it. So I took each hitters median launch angle from 2019 and compared it to their 2020 season and saw which hitters had the least favorable shifts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jorge Soler (OF, KC)

This is a rolling median plot. For every ball after the 100th ball put in play, I've calculated the median launch angle for the previous 100 balls in play. This shows the trend over time of each player's launch angles.

Everything clicked for Soler in 2019 as he blasted 48 homers in 162 games, slugging .569. That was no doubt aided by him getting a lot of balls into the sweet spot. The good news is that Soler's fly balls did not turn into grounders as much as they just turned into line drives. His ground-ball rate actually dropped from 39.3% to 37.8%, but he added 4% on to his line-drives. Line drives are great for batting average, but not the best for homers.

This plot does a good job to show Soler's shift:

This plot displays the distributions of each player's launch angles, with launch angle being on the x-axis and the percent of the total on the y-axis. 

You can see that he had a much higher share of launch angles between -50 and 0 in 2020 compared to 2019.

Despite that, Soler is not someone to be really worried about. He continued to hit the ball insanely hard in 2020, and his barrel rate actually came up. He remains a guy that projects to hit a good amount of homers while not providing much else; I don't think his decreased launch angle in 2020 is worrisome.

 

Austin Riley (3B/OF, ATL)

Riley hit nine homers in his first 18 big league games, and then 17 more in the following  113 games. His .239/.301/.415 slash line in 2020 leaves a ton to be desired. He posted a median launch angle of 21 degrees in 2019, but that fell to 16 in 2020. Here's the distribution comparison:

A much flatter curve there with angles spread out above and below the optimal range. His 2019 curve is almost exactly what you want to see, really concentrated around 10-30 degrees. The 2020 curve shows a very inconsistent hitter. No doubt, the league adjusted to Riley quickly and he has some work to do to be a consistently successful power hitter moving forward.

 

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY)

Judge's struggles with injury have resulted in him playing in just 130 games over the last two seasons. He got off to a roaring start in 2020 but sputtered to the finish line. Before his August 11th injury, he hit .290/.343/.758. After returning from that injury he slashed just .194/.326/.222 in his final 43 plate appearances. His launch angles were spread all over the place as well:

I'm willing to forgive Judge here and attribute the poor performance to injury, but of course, we cannot forget about the trouble he's had staying on the field moving forward. The true questions revolve around health, not raw ability.

 

Rhys Hoskins (1B, PHI)

Hoskins actually had the opposite problem in 2020. While the rest of the guys saw their launch angles fall out of the optimal zone downwards, Hoskins exited that zone upwards. His median angle in 2019 was a very nice 23.5 degrees, but in 2020 that came up to 32 degrees. While 32 degrees is a good spot to be at, the fact that 32 is his median means half of his balls were hit above there, which is out of the optimal range. Here are the distributions:

You're going to have trouble getting anything above 35 degrees out of the ballpark, and Hoskins hit a lot of balls above that angle. He also added on more balls hit directly into the ground, so it's not a very good look for Hoskins here.

 

Joey Gallo (OF, TEX)

Gallo has always been "home run or bust", but he took that to a new ridiculous level in his short 2020 season. He hit just .181/.301/.378, but still with a respectable 10 homers. His strikeout rate stayed ridiculously high (35%), but his walk rate fell (12.8%). He still kept the ball in the air but got it a little too far in the air quite a bit.

That is just way too many balls hit above 40 degrees. Gallo has been the barrel rate king in his career, with a career barrel rate of 21.4% (the league average is 6.1%). In 2020 he posted a 14% barrel rate, which is awful by his standards. If Gallo cannot bring his median angle down in 2021, it's going to be another just atrocious batting average season for him (we're talking sub .200 for a guy that strikes out this much).

 

Austin Meadows (OF, TB)

The Rays outfielder was on the field for just 36 games last year and struggled mightily with a .205/.296/.371 line. That had a lot to do with his constant pop-ups. His fly-ball rate came up to a career-high 53.6%, but lots of those fly-balls were just hit way too high in the air.

That's an impressive share of balls hit above 50 degrees, not a good sign. It probably has to do with the lack of timing he had given the strange season and his injuries, so I wouldn't read too much into the 152-plate appearance sample.

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

This is one of the biggest shifts we see. Conforto had his median angle comfortably above 20 degrees for most of 2019, but near the end and into 2020 it really fell off. His median angle in 2019 was 17 degrees and it fell to 14 degrees for 2020.

Conforto's line drive rate ballooned from 23.9% to 30.3% in 2020, while his fly-ball rate plummetted from 40% to 28%. That move is visualized nicely in the plot above. Conforto rode the increased line drive rate to a career-best .322 batting average, but his power production fell off in step (homered at a rate of below 25 homers per 162 games last season after hitting 33 homers in 2019). That gives us optimism that you can get tons of production from Conforto even without the ball leaving the yard, but it's not clear that he's a guy that can flirt with 40 homers anymore. Only time will tell.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF