X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Kyle Freeland vs Jose Quintana

Starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jose Quintana are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Elliott Baas examines each player to decide how to approach the position on draft day.

Every year there is one pitcher who, despite all underlying peripherals, puts up monster numbers and leaves fantasy owners wondering how to value them come next year. In 2018, that pitcher was Kyle Freeland, who not only put up inexplicable numbers, but did so in Colorado. Freeland's success despite a contact-heavy pitching style makes him the perfect pitcher to compare with Jose Quintana, who was once the king of low-dominance success before a two-year dip in production.

Can Freeland conquer Coors again, can Quintana return to former glory, and most importantly, are either of them worth putting on your fantasy team?

In this article, I will be comparing the average draft position (ADP) of Kyle Freeland to Jose Quintana to determine who the better value is on draft day. ADP data is based on NFBC leagues and is current as of 02/25/2019.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Kyle Freeland (ADP: 38th SP, 150th Overall)

Freeland had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 17-7 record along with a 2.85 ERA in 202.1 innings. That’s a brilliant season for anyone, but especially impressive considering Freeland calls Coors Field home. With a season like that, one would expect Freeland to shoot up draft boards, but at just pick 150 his draft value isn’t commensurate with his surface perform. Fantasy owners are reluctant to buy into Freeland’s performance, and after looking into Freeland’s underlying stats it’s clear why there is so much doubt.

To begin with, Freeland somehow managed a .285 BABIP against despite pitching half his games in Colorado. The even crazier part is that Freeland had a .269 BABIP at home. His road BABIP was basically league average at .299, but at Coors Field the hits just didn’t fall; an odd phenomenon to say the least. How would a pitcher be able to achieve this feat, and, more importantly, repeat it?

Well, perhaps Freeland is one of those mythical contact management pitchers, ala Kyle Hendricks and Dallas Keuchel, where he makes up for lack of stuff by inducing favorable contact. The best type of hit for a pitcher to induce is an infield flyball, since these are basically automatic outs. Freeland had an 11.4% infield flyball rate last season, which was only 1% above the league average. The next best hit would be a groundball. While a groundball is more likely to go for a hit than a flyball, it’s rare for one to be more than a single, and when a groundball goes for extra bases it’s usually a down-the-line double or something equally as fluky. Freeland posted a 46% groundball rate was slightly above the league average, but not spectacular or noteworthy. These are solid skills, but neither would explain his success on batted balls.

Freeland does excel in limiting hard contact by Statcast’s metrics. He was in the 88th percentile of average exit velocity against and the 91st percentile of hard contact allowed last season. Freeland’s slider was a big reason for his success last season, as batters hit just .203 against the pitch, and even more impressively opposing hitters had a .191 xBA against Freeland’s slider. The pitch also had a 32.8% infield flyball rate. While not a big strikeout pitch in relative terms, it was Freeland’s best strikeout pitch with a 13.7% SwStr rate. His slider is an impressive pitch, but it will allow Freeland to overcome his deficiencies to a degree.

He has underwhelming stuff, generally speaking, has poor control and low dominance, and plays for the Rockies. No one expects him to repeat a 2.85 ERA, but an ERA around 4.39, which was his SIERA in 2018, seems possible. Pick 150 isn’t a huge investment given last year’s surface stats, but there are too many red flags here to consider Freeland even as a top 50 starting pitcher. He’s currently the 38th SP off the board in NFBC leagues, and I would not recommend him at that ADP.

 

Jose Quintana (ADP 52nd SP, 184th Overall)

Look up the word "dependable" in the dictionary and you’ll see a brief sentence defining the word. That sentence perfectly described Jose Quintana between the 2013-2016 seasons. In those four years, Quintana pitched at least 200 innings every season with an ERA of 3.51 or better and a K/BB ratio of 2.93 or better. He flew under the radar to most baseball fans because the White Sox weren’t competitive during that time, but fantasy owners grew to appreciate Quintana’s reliability in this age of pitcher volatility.

In 2017, we saw the first warning signs from Quintana when he posted an ERA above four for the first time in his career and failed to pitch 200 innings for the first time. It was a season of streaks for Quintana, as he posted an ERA above 5.20 in three separate months, but also posted an ERA of 2.51 or better in two different months. The two positives from 2017 that gave us hope for a bounce back were Quintana’s trade to the Cubs, which was better for him across the board. Better team, better defense, better ballpark, and an easier league. The second positive was an increased strikeout rate, which was up to a career-high 26.2% in 2017. Quintana was a prime rebound candidate heading into 2018.

Based on his 2017 performance, it was easy to tell that the increased strikeout rate wasn’t here to stay. The strikeout rate was fluky based on an uncharacteristic and unsustainable changeup results. Quintana also had a well below average swinging strike rate in 2017. Things normalized for Quintana in 2018, and the results weren’t pretty. His 13 wins tied a career high, but everything else is on a negative trend. His changeup regressed, and his trademark curveball got clobbered last year for a .222 ISO against. The pitch was a big reason for Quintana’s career-high 1.29 HR/9 rate, as nine of the 25 homers he allowed came off curveballs.

Furthermore, Quintana posted a bloated 9.2% walk rate last season, by far the highest of his career. It would be one thing if Quintana was walking more batters because he couldn’t find the zone, but something even more concerning happened; he couldn’t get hitters to chase. He had a 26.9% O-swing rate last year, the lowest since his rookie season. He also lost three inches of drop on his curveball, and those two things hand-in-hand suggest either injury or age-related decline for Quintana.

His velocity didn’t drop last year, which would seemingly rule out injury, and Quintana only turned 30 last month, which doesn’t make him a grandpa yet, even in today’s youth-obsessed game. He does have over 1300 major league innings on his arm thanks to his workhorse-like stability with the White Sox, which could contribute to an early decline, but it just seems premature to write Quintana off so early. Unfortunately, there just isn’t anything in his profile to suggest a bounce back for Quintana in 2019. In fact, most of the evidence points to the contrary.

His current ADP makes him pick 184 in NFBC drafts and the 52nd starting pitcher off the board. That isn’t low enough to make the risk worth the potential reward. Other, higher upside pitchers are going after Quintana. At best, he can be an innings eater, and at worst he’ll damage your ERA and WHIP.

 

Conclusion

Admittedly, neither of these pitchers fit the archetype of pitchers I target in fantasy, which are typically high strikeout guys with one or two killer pitches but considerable risk, be it injury, control issues, lack of a third pitch, or otherwise. That being said, I went into this article with an open mind, hoping to uncover the secret behind Kyle Freeland’s success, or looking for the key to a Jose Quintana bounce back. Sadly, I came away from this article just as I began it, disinterested in both of these pitchers. Maybe that makes me biased against them, but I cannot find a compelling reason to draft either of them.

At their current ADP neither provide good value, and I can’t recommend either one this draft season. If forced to choose, I’d select Kyle Freeland at pick 150 over Jose Quintana at pick 188. Freeland isn’t going to post another 2.85 ERA - I’d wager the entire contents of my cookie jar on that one, but he’ll likely wind up with the better season than Quintana. If I wound up with Quintana on my team I’d hope for a hot start to flip him, and I would feel free to drop him if he gets off to a slow start.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Houston Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Jaxson Dart

Plays Well on Saturday Night
Marcus Semien

Avoids Serious Injury
Kyle Stowers

Heads to Injured List With Left-Side Strain
Zack Wheeler

Placed on Injured List With Blood Clot in Shoulder
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Optimistic Terry McLaurin Deal Can Get Done Soon
De'Von Achane

De’Von Achane Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Josh Hader

Unlikely to Return During Regular Season
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Kyle Stowers

Out Saturday With Left-Side Tightness
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Ty Gibbs

is Mediocre at a Track Where his Grandfather's Team Won 19 Times
Ross Chastain

Despite Qualifying 33rd, Ross Chastain Not As Strong a DFS Option As Usual
Carson Hocevar

Will Carson Hocevar's Speed Overcome His Lack of Racecraft?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Not Enough Attrition at Richmond for Shane Van Gisbergen to Be Viable
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looking for Another Solid Richmond Race
Austin Cindric

After Strong Iowa Run, Austin Cindric Might Surprise
Corey Heim

Probably Too Inexperienced to Contend at Richmond
Daniel Suarez

Won't Benefit From the Same Strategy Play This Year
Erik Jones

Was Slow at Richmond Even When He Had Fast Cars
Zane Smith

Not a Great DFS Option on Paper, but Typically Outperforms His Expectations
Jhoan Duran

Feels "100%"
Marcus Semien

Out on Saturday, Going for X-Rays on his Wrist
George Springer

Activated and Starting on Saturday
Dylan Beavers

Called Up by Orioles
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Activate Terry McLaurin From PUP List
Jhoan Duran

Takes Comebacker Off Foot, X-Rays Negative
Rashee Rice

NFL Could Reach Settlement Before Hearing
Matt Chapman

Goes to Injured List
George Springer

Likely Returning on Saturday
Max Muncy

Lands on 10-Day Injured List
Joe Mixon

Not a Lock to be Ready For Week 1
Rashee Rice

Receives Clearance to Travel to Brazil for Week 1
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Amir Coffey

Signs One-Year Deal With Bucks
Jacob Misiorowski

Activated and Starting on Friday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Back From the Injured List
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Chase Burns

Hits 15-Day Injured List With Flexor Strain
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Travis Hunter

Dealing With Upper-Body Injury, Could be Held Out of Preseason Game
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team
Payton Pritchard

Reportedly Moving Into Starting Lineup
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Expected to Return Friday
Michael King

Heading to 15-Day Injured List
Quinshon Judkins

Won't Face Formal Charges
Sam LaPorta

To "Miss a Little Bit of Time"
Rashee Rice

Disciplinary Hearing Scheduled For Late September
Chris Godwin

Likely to Start the Season on PUP List?
Kevin Durant

Rockets Not Interested in Keeping Kevin Durant with Max Extension
NBA

Isaiah Mobley Joins Turkish Team
NBA

Cole Swider Links Up with EuroLeague Powerhouse
Ethan Thompson

Joins Heat for Training Camp
Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers Add Jason Preston for Training Camp
Stefon Diggs

Unsure About Availability for Week 1
Justin Jefferson

Won't Practice This Week, Will be Re-Evaluated Next Week
Akshay Bhatia

a High-Upside Play at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

a Safe Play at BMW Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im a Risky Play at BMW Championship
Xander Schauffele

Chases Big Week at BMW Championship
Shane Lowry

Aims to Rebound at BMW Championship
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Build Momentum at BMW Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looking to Rebound at BMW Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Eyeing Another BMW Championship Victory
Neemias Queta

Wants to Raise His Free-Throw Attempts
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Stuggling to Trade Anfernee Simons
James Cook

Bills Agree on Four-Year Extension
Cole Anthony

Focuses on Winning with Bucks
NBA

Jesse Edwards Moves to Australia
Kessler Edwards

Joins Nuggets
Bradley Beal

Feeling Rejuvenated in Los Angeles
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Looking "Incredible"
PIT

Chad Ruhwedel Retires From NHL
MIN

Jack Johnson Signs Tryout Deal with Wild
Ryker Evans

Kraken Extend Ryker Evans with Two-Year Deal
Rondale Moore

Out for the Season With Knee Injury
Bud Cauley

Needs a Big Result in Maryland
Harris English

Confident for BMW Championship
Jason Day

Faces Uphill Battle at BMW Championship
Cameron Young

Hot at the Right Time
J.J. Spaun

Rolls in After Near Miss in Memphis
Brian Harman

is a Longer Shot Heading to Maryland
Corey Conners

Appears Safe This Week in Maryland
Daniel Berger

Must Play Better at BMW Championship
Miami Heat

Kai Jones Works Out for Heat
Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook Likely to Join Kings

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP