X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Justin Upton Rankings Debate: Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

2018 fantasy baseball rankings analysis on Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim OF Justin Upton. Jeff Kahntroff and Harris Yudin debate his ADP value for 2018 drafts.

This is the latest in a long-running series of articles debating the overall ranking of some of the most fantasy-relevant players of the 2018 baseball season.

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

In today's debate, Harris Yudin and Jeff Kahntroff argue over where Justin Upton should be drafted.  While Harris states he is worth the 31st overall pick, Jeff believes he should be selected a full two rounds later. Let's see which argument is most convincing.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Justin Upton

Rank Tier Player Position Kyle Nick Pierre Jeff Harris Bill
38 4 Justin Upton OF 32 38 31 51 31 44

 

Harris Yudin's Ranking: #31 overall

Justin Upton is about as consistent as they come in terms of fantasy production, having hit 25 home runs with at least 160 combined runs and RBI in five consecutive years.

Perhaps five years is going back too far, though. Over the last three seasons, he has totaled 92 HR, 266 R, 277 RBI, 42 SB and a .256/.336/.487 slash line. Only five other players -- Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Brian Dozier -- have averaged 25 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI and 10 SB across that span.

Jeff ranks Upton behind Domingo Santana. The two corner outfielders had very similar 2017 campaigns, so Santana is essentially Upton minus the track record and guaranteed playing time, plus some questionable batted ball luck (30.9 HR/FB).

Give Me the Sure Thing Every Time

Upside is always exciting, but sometimes it’s better to go with the proven commodity. After all, aren’t you hoping the guy with upside will soon turn into the proven commodity? Outside of Rhys Hoskins -- and sure, throw Ronald Acuna in here -- there is no player who will be available beyond the top 30 whose upside is likely to surpass Upton’s yearly production.

The prospect of hitting in the middle of the Angels’ loaded lineup should entice fantasy owners to pull the trigger on the four-time all-star. Albert Pujols spent much of last season batting behind Trout, and managed to knock in 101 runs despite posting just a .286 OBP. Upton is projected to assume the No. 3 spot in the lineup, which will lead to a ton of run-producing opportunities.

There are no major red flags in Upton’s batted ball profile. The .341 BABIP, while significantly higher than it was in the previous two years, isn’t far off his career average. Sure, Angel Stadium is less hitter-friendly than Comerica Park, but Upton showed in a small sample size that he can produce there-- seven homers, .887 OPS in 115 plate appearances, despite his BABIP reading just .293 over that span.

Upton isn’t the sexiest pick simply because we know his ceiling, but count me in for a consistent, five-category contributor who should step into the box with Mike Trout on base more than 250 times.

 

Jeff Kahntroff's Ranking: #51 overall

Harris paints a picture of Justin Upton as Mr. Consistency over the past five years. Even though Upton has met some arbitrary measures of consistency, Harris is asking the wrong question. The proper questions are (1) what draft position does Upton's performance in years prior suggest is appropriate, and (2) is there any reason 2018 should be different?

What Draft Position Does Upton's Performance In Years Prior Suggest is Appropriate? 

Upton's 5x5 rankings over the past five years are 17th, 101st, 54th, 30th, and 56th. Upton's average rank over that span is 51.6. That is exactly where I ranked Upton. Harris ranked him two rounds higher.

Harris also suggests looking at a three-year span. Over that period, Upton's average rank is 57.3. Over the past two years, it is 64th. Unless you solely focus on last year, any average of Upton's prior rankings actually supports my ranking of 51st, not Harris's ranking of 31st. In fact, if you drafted Upton 31st each of the past five years, you would have received a one round surplus last year and been right on target in 2014. However, in 2016 you would have drafted him seven rounds too high, and in the other two years you would have drafted him more than two rounds too high.

Harris states that there are no players outside the top 30 whose upside could match Upton's yearly production, but that is clearly false. Because Justin Upton's average ranking over that span is 51.6, there have to be over 20 players outside the top 30 who can outperform his yearly production. Last year, there were nine players ranked outside the top 30 who outperformed even Harris's lofty ranking of Upton. While Harris disagrees with my ranking of Domingo Santana relative to Upton, I defended that position here, and thus will not repeat it.

Harris also portrays Upton as more valuable than he is by finding an arbitrary consistency categorization. In that grouping, Upton joins five far superior fantasy options: Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo, and Brian Dozier. While Harris's grouping is factually accurate, it is misleading. These are 5x5 rankings, and his categorization leaves out a batting average requirement. Batting average is Upton's weakest category. During that span, Upton batted .256.  Most of the others excel in that category. Over the prior three years, the average 5x5 rankings of these players are (Goldschmidt 7.0, Trout 13.3, Rizzo 27.0, Dozier 34.0, and Harper 44.0, Upton 57.3). During that span, their worst single season ranks are (Goldschmidt 9, Trout 29, Rizzo 36, Dozier 65, Harper 84, and Upton 101). Thus, let's not believe that Upton being in a group with these five players at all suggests that his value is near theirs.

Overall, Upton is a player who has stayed relatively healthy and thus put up somewhat consistent production. But, he has failed to record double-digit stolen bases in three of the prior five seasons. He also has struck out in over 30% of his at-bats during that span. He has never hit over .273 in that stretch. That is why his average ranking over that span is not as high as some may initially perceive it to be. Thus, my ranking is appropriate unless there is a reason to think that he should be better in 2018.

Is There Any Reason to Think that 2018 Should Be Better For Upton than His Prior Years' Averages

Harris did not explain why Upton's 2017 is more indicative of his true performance than his years prior. In fact, Harris even pointed out that Upton had an abnormally high BABIP last year. Upton also is coming off a career-high HR/FB ratio. Yes, his hard hit percentage climbed last year, but that has happened in the past with Upton and it dropped back down the following year.  Without a clear reason why Upton is a different hitter, I chose to keep him at his recent averages.

Moreover, Upton is moving to a worse park for righty power and average. He is not at an age where players typically improve. While he possibly moves to a spot behind Trout in the lineup (as we know lineups are susceptible to change), he also leaves a Tigers' offense that has been significantly better than the Angels' offense over the prior two years. Even though the Angels' lineup should improve this year, there is no guarantee it will be better than the Tigers' lineups in which he played the past two seasons.  In Upton's admittedly small sample with the Angels, he was on pace for fewer runs produced (runs + RBIs) than his 2017 numbers with the Tigers.

Conclusion

Harris's argument suggests that I am predicting Upton to be worse than he has been. But, I am not. Rather, my ranking for Upton is slightly better than Upton's average finish over the past two, three, four, and five years. I saw no reason to expect a significantly better performance from Upton in 2018, and Harris has failed to provide one. Thus, there is no reason that Upton's five-year average finish (51.6) is not an appropriate ranking for him in 2018.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF